Lombardi shuffle: How all 14 NFL playoff teams can win the Super Bowl

The NFL playoffs begin this weekend with six wild-card games. Fourteen teams made the postseason, and while some are more likely to hoist the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara on Feb. 8, there's a case to be made for all of them to do it. Or is there? Let's find out.

AFC
Denver BroncosDefense and supporting cast lead the way

The Broncos hold the No. 1 seed in a fresh-faced AFC playoff race and their path through the playoffs will rest on the shoulders of their defense, which was again one of the top units in the league. The Broncos haven't been quite as dominant as they were during the regular season last season, but they're still a top-10 unit and boast one of the best run defenses in the league. Vance Joseph's Broncos are tough to throw against and should fare better than they did against Buffalo in the wild-card round last year when they were run off the field.

If there is an area of this defense to be concerned about, it's the non-Patrick Surtain cornerbacks. Sometimes the volume of targets getting forced the other way can be a problem, but they have the third-highest pressure rate (43.3%) on defense and can really get after the quarterback. They should be in a better position to actually live up to their regular-season rankings this year.

They'll need to because Bo Nix will be making just his second start in the playoffs. The NFL's passing attempt leader had a mixed bag sophomore season, but his physical traits still allow him to be a playmaker and give his offense a good chance at extended plays. He needs to clean up some of his in-pocket process to maximize Denver's chances of making it to the Super Bowl and winning it. The Broncos ranked eighth in expected points added per dropback this season, but 21st in dropback success rate to further show the split between the peaks and inconsistencies.

They have the talent to be here, but the defense and supporting cast around Nix will really need to fare well to get through the AFC this season.

New England PatriotsDrake Maye carries Patriots to a Super Bowl

New England, who is still rebuilding from a talent perspective, has one ticket to the Super Bowl: Drake Maye continuing his total assault on NFL secondaries.

Maye has been the reason the Patriots have made it this far and had a chance to be the No. 1 seed in the waning weeks of the season. He has brought a lot of respect to what was once deemed a terrible wide receiver room -and those guys have improved in their own right. But Maye is the maximizer here.

This will be a fascinating test for Maye because the Patriots are not quite as talented as a typical No. 2 seed team from top to bottom, but their quarterback is so damn good that it might not matter. Maye has been arguably the best quarterback in the league this season with an incredibly rare ability to throw downfield and place the ball wherever he wants. He's the engine and he's going to be asked to carry the whole load if New England has a shot to win it all.

Jacksonville JaguarsJakobi Meyers keeps balling and defense continues its recent dominance

Jacksonville just needs to keep riding the post-Jakobi Meyers wave.

Meyers' presence has been a godsend for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, finally giving them the steady, veteran wide receiver Lawrence hasn't quite had throughout his career. The timing and precision of the Jaguars' passing game has really improved and the offense is probably stable enough to stack multiple games together in the postseason.

However, the Jaguars' defense will be the key for them in the postseason. They've put together an incredible back half of the season, ranking third in expected points allowed per play, but they've also mostly faced backup quarterbacks and some low-value rookie quarterbacks. Jacksonville gave Denver some fits on the road a few weeks ago, which should inspire hope that the Jaguars can sustain the defensive success through the postseason. The defense needs to show that the standard they've set is the standard to expect against all teams, and not just a devourer of bad and young quarterbacks.

Josh Allen is a good first test!

Pittsburgh SteelersDK Metcalf catches everything

The Steelers don't have a chance to win the Super Bowl unless DK Metcalf catches every target thrown his way in every game. They don't have enough offensive firepower.

Houston TexansDefense proves it's the best in the NFL

Houston's path to the Lombardi is as clear as any team in the league this year: do what you do. The Texans finished the season 12-5 after an 0-3 start on the back of an incredibly formidable defense and an improving offense. If Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, Derek Stingley Jr. and all their blue-chip talents on defense stay on the field, they might have the defense best-suited to win in the postseason because the Texans have multiple players at every level who can win one-one matchups.

As long as the bottom doesn't fall out of the offense, Houston's Super Bowl chances are as real as anyone's here. The defense is too talented and DeMeco Ryans is proven as a defensive play-caller in this league.

Buffalo BillsJosh Allen wakes up

Buffalo has a chance if Josh Allen can snap out of a late-season funk. He was still productive and also battling a foot injury, but he was making some frantic decisions that were extreme even for him. He didn't seem to trust what was going on downfield - or really anything his supporting cast was doing. Allen is as good as almost any quarterback who has played this game, hence the mounting pressure to punch through the playoffs and finally make it to the Super Bowl.

That will be tough considering the Bills will likely be on the road the entire playoffs. Tough will become impossible if Allen doesn't play cleaner football.

Los Angeles ChargersJustin Herbert carries the world

The Chargers are about in the same bucket as the Steelers, but they have a better chance than them. Justin Herbert has played incredibly well in tough circumstances again, but the offensive line is too hurt and relying on too many backups to take the Chargers where they need to go.

The defense has been good, but the Chargers have major issues in offensive personnel and scheme to the point Herbert will have to carry the world again. We saw just how hard that was last year in the wild-card round when they were immediately sent packing by the Texans.

NFC
Seattle SeahawksDefense bludgeons everybody with just enough help from Sam Darnold and the offense

The Seahawks just need their defense to keep eating the faces of every opponent. The combination of talent and scheme allows the Seahawks to have some truly dominating games, as the 49ers saw to close out the regular season. This defense is good enough to carry a shaky offense all the way through the postseason without much help. It need just a small enough cushion from Sam Darnold and the Seahawks' offense to close these games out.

Darnold will need to do something that escapes him from time to time: play mistake-free football. The Seahawks rank 31st in turnover rate on offense this season, which makes it all the more impressive they held onto the top seed in the playoffs. Things will get tighter in the postseason, but the No. 1 seed for this team was bludgeoned into existence - maybe it can do the same when it counts the most.

Chicago BearsRun the ball well enough to mitigate shaky defense

There probably aren't many teams that feel better about their immediate future than the Chicago Bears, but right now it looks like their defense might be too weak to make a run in Ben Johnson's first year as head coach. However, Chicago has one of the best run games in the league, giving the Bears a trump card when it comes to consistently moving the ball without putting it in harm's way. That, paired with the explosive ability of second-year quarterback Caleb Williams, has given the Bears a top-10 offense that found its groove as the season went on.

Chicago ranked third in rushing success rate and fifth in expected points added per rush this season. Johnson's ability to dial up a running game immediately translated and now D'Andre Swift and rookie running back Kyle Monangai have become unlikely heroes of the 2025 season. It'll take a lot for the Bears to overcome some of the holes that their defense has, but being able to run the ball has never gone out of style and the Bears do it at an elite level.

Philadelphia EaglesJalen Carter and the defense erase offense's inexplicable struggles

There's no reason the Eagles' offense should have been as bad as it was this regular season. But there's no guarantee they'll figure it out in the playoffs, so they'll need their defense to erase all the stretches of ineffectiveness the offense has.

Jalen Carter and the Eagles' front seven is as good as any in the NFL at its best, and they get a good matchup to start the playoffs against a banged-up 49ers o-line. And if the Eagles get a win under their belt, maybe they can recapture the formula that won them the Super Bowl just 11 months ago.

Carolina Panthers

The Carolina Panthers can't win the Super Bowl. Let's not waste time here.

Los Angeles RamsDon't turn the ball over

The Los Angeles Rams can win the Super Bowl if they don't turn the ball over. That's about it for them. Even in the first Panthers game they lost, they had a 70% rushing success rate and Matthew Stafford converted a 41% of his dropbacks into a first down -a mark that is 8% higher than the league-leading figure of 33% this season, which is also owned by the Rams. They're a juggernaut that can beat defenses in so many ways, but they can't get caught up and beat themselves.

San Francisco 49ersOffense plays close to perfect

The 49ers face an uphill climb considering the state of their defense, which has been arguably the worst unit in the league this season. They have been demolished by injuries and it's shown in an egregious way. The offense has been great over the back half of the season, but San Francisco's last game against Seattle showed it probably doesn't have the firepower or talent along the offensive line to sustain its performance now that its playing the NFC's best teams.

If the 49ers are going to get hot and go on a run, their offense is going to need to be perfect. Minimize the negative plays that plague this offense from time to time and then play with a ruthless level of efficiency and precision on top of it. It's a tough way to play in the postseason, but they have no threatening bodies on defense since the front seven is so weak. Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey are going to have to take turns carrying the world on their shoulders as the injuries continue to pile up.

Green Bay PackersJordan Love goes full inferno mode

With the defense just being completely ransacked by injuries, the Packers are going to need Jordan Love to go full inferno mode to win these games.

The Packers' pass rush and run defense have turned into major problems through a litany of defensive line injuries, making a shootout likely in the playoffs. It's never a good sign when your team is signing players the Cowboys cut in Week 17 to hopefully contribute.

When Love was on the field, he was one of the most ridiculously efficient passers in the league. Among all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, only Patriots star Drake Maye generated more expected points per dropback. Love had an explosive pass rate of 17.6% as well, good for second in the league. They'll need him to be at full capacity to go on an improbable, all-road game run through the playoffs as the NFC's 7-seed.