Steelers vs. Texans NFL playoffs wild-card betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets for Steelers vs. Texans
The AFC North champion Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Houston Texans on Monday night, in what could end up being Aaron Rodgers' final NFL game. The Steelers clinched the AFC North in the final game of the regular season, beating the Baltimore Ravens 26-24 after Baltimore kicker Tyler Loop missed a potential game-winning 44-yard field goal as time expired.
Ben Fawkes gathers quotes from oddsmakers for all the games and our team of NFL handicappers provides their favorite wagers on the game.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
No. 5 Houston Texans (-3, 38) at No. 4 Pittsburgh SteelersWhat oddsmakers are saying"This game has bounced back between 3 and 3.5. At 3.5, we've seen Steelers money and more Texans money at 3. As long as game doesn't land on 3, everyone should be fine. Currently, a small decision to the under. I don't think this game touches 40 on the total." - Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata
"We usually see Steelers action come in on game day, but leading up to it I don't think anyone is exited to bet on them. Texans defense has been lights out, and that's driving the action here, coupled with money on the under. Lowest total on the board. Aaron Rodgers' last hurrah will probably drive some action. We're still at 39.5 on the total." - Joey Feazel, head of NFL trading at Caesars Sportsbook
Best betsMatt Jacob: Here's something that might surprise you: The Texans have more playoff victories in the last two years (two) than the Steelers have in the last nine years (zero).
Yep, since losing the AFC championship game to New England following the 2016 campaign, the Steelers have dropped five consecutive postseason contests.
Another perspective: The two wild-card victories that Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud recorded in the 2023 and 2024 match the number of playoff wins that Aaron Rodgers has posted since 2017.
This, of course, is not the main reason why Stroud and the Texans are solidly favored to defeat Rodgers and the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Monday night. No, the main reason is because Houston is a legit Super Bowl contender (15-1 odds) and Pittsburgh (50-1) is not.
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The Texans enter the playoffs on a nine-game winning streak, which is part of the team's 12-2 run since opening the season 0-3. Conversely, the Steelers needed to win four of their final five games - the last one on a missed field goal as time expired - just to sneak into the tournament.
Back to Rodgers: The 41-year-old will be facing the NFL's No. 1 total defense, No. 2 scoring defense and No. 6 pass defense. Number of times in 17 games that Houston's stop unit allowed more than three touchdowns: three.
During the regular season, Rodgers and the Steelers faced six of the top 12 scoring defenses. They averaged 17.3 points and went 2-4 SU and ATS.
Not only that, but Pittsburgh faced just five playoff teams in 2025.
The results:
31-17 home loss to Seattle
21-14 win at New England (the Patriots committed five turnovers)
35-25 home loss to Green Bay
25-10 loss at the Chargers
26-7 home loss to Buffalo
By comparison, the Texans won their final three games against playoff teams, toppling the Jaguars (36-29), Bills (23-19) and Chargers (20-16).
Bet: Texans -3.5 (-102)
Michael Fiddle: After a two-game suspension, DK Metcalf returns to the Steelers - a piece the team so desperately needs.
During Metcalf's absence, the Steelers were reliant on Adam Thielen, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Kenneth Gainwell and Pat Freiermuth to be the team's top target options. There were moments where the veteran wide receivers were literally explaining to their teammates what to do after a play call; a rare sight for a Week 18 game.
While Rodgers was able to get the passing game going against the Baltimore Ravens, most notably after Kyle Hamilton left with an injury, the Texans defense is a different beast. One of the best and most physical cornerbacks in the NFL (Derek Stingley Jr.) is coming to Pittsburgh. Having Metcalf instead of the less physical options previously mentioned is essential to winning this matchup. Rodgers will need to lean on Metcalf in both short and long routes. I also expect a few deep shots to be taken down field to Metcalf, as he can create separation and finish plays.
The market has already bet the receiving yards up for Metcalf from the low 50's to the middle to high 50's, while BetMGM still hangs a beatable number. Bet on Metcalf to have a revenge performance when the Steelers need him most.
Bet: DK Metcalf over 50.5 receiving yards (-115)