NFL Conference Championships Bet Now or Bet Later Picks: Another Defensive Grinder on Tap
The New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC title game, while the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC finale.
Our NFL picks are split between just two spreads and two totals, but when you wager on these conference title lines, it could make all the difference.
I highlight the best spreads and totals to jump on right away, as well as which ones you may want to wait for market movement.
Here are my Bet Now, Bet Later" NFL picks for Championship Sunday.
NFL predictions: Conference Championships bet now, bet later picks- Rams (+2.5) at Seahawks: Bet Now
- Patriots at Broncos (+4.5): Bet Later
- Patriots at Broncos (Under 41.5): Bet Now
Look-ahead lines before the results of the Divisional Round listed the Seattle Seahawks as a 1.5-point home favorite over Los Angeles in the NFC Championship.
Now that we officially get a third installment of this NFC West rivalry, bookmakers opened the Seahawks as 2.5-point chalk in the wake of the Los Angeles Rams' thrilling OT win at Chicago and the Seahawks' squash of San Francisco Saturday.
Los Angeles gave Seattle a tough time this season, winning 21-19 at SoFi in Week 11 and taking their division foe the distance with a 38-37 loss at Lumen Field in Week 16.
In both of those games, Seahawks QB Sam Darnold struggled. He passed for 270-plus in both outings but finished with a 2:6 TD-to-INT count and owns a passer rating of 62.4 versus L.A. - his lowest among all 2025 opponents.
Darnold is now dealing with a quad injury that nearly forced him out of the Divisional Round, if not for some powerful painkillers (H/T Kyle Shanahan). He's obviously not 100% and faces a team that's had his number this season.
If you like Los Angeles, grab the +2.5 now. If, for some reason, it jumps to L.A. +3, you can just bet it again. But, I believe we'll see this settle in around Seattle -1.5 by kickoff Sunday.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+4.5): Bet LaterBefore Bo Nix went down, the Denver Broncos were 1.5-point home favorites against the New England Patriots, according to the look-ahead lines. After his injury, that early spread jumped the fence to Broncos +4.5, and the official opener followed suit.
In the opening minutes of action for the AFC Championship Game, we're seeing some expensive Patriots -4.5 start to bubble up to -115. That shift in vig indicates a market move to -5 or beyond (BetMGM is already dealing -5.5), and from there bookmakers will move quickly through the dead numbers to -6, should steady money show up on New England.
I believe there is an appetite for Denver if this spread grows larger. The Broncos not only have the home advantage and a coaching edge with Sean Payton, but this Denver defense is among the best in the land.
We just watched Drake Maye struggle against the Texans' top-tier stop unit on Sunday, with three turnovers and just 4.0 yards per play, amassing a mere 13 first downs - despite extra possessions (31:35) thanks to five takeaways from the defense.
Keep an eye on the spread and see if this hits Broncos +6 later in the week, but don't wait too long. As mentioned, I think wiseguys will snap up Denver if bookmakers get generous with the points on the home pup.
Covers NFL betting toolsNew England Patriots at Denver Broncos (Under 41.5): Bet NowThe Broncos losing Nix to an ankle injury at the end of Saturday's win over Buffalo leaves this pop-gun offense in the hands of backupJarrett Stidham, who hasn't thrown a pass that matters in two seasons.
Before the Nix injury, the look-ahead total for this AFC title game pairing was 45.5. Books adjusted that number to 40.5 ahead of the Patriots' win over Houston on Sunday. Books opened the official total at 41.5 points.
The Patriots benefited from an error-plagued performance from Texans QB C.J. Stroud, which helped their offensive effort appear stronger than it really was. New England scored a defensive touchdown, averaged only 4.0 yards per play, and had three turnovers of its own against Houston's top-tier defense.
The Broncos present more of the same. Denver ranks among the top stop units in the land and will lean heavily on that defense to keep the team within striking distance next Sunday. The Broncos' playbook was conservative with Nix, but it will be very vanilla with Stidham as it tries to lure the Pats into a low-scoring grinder.
If you like the Under, you'll want to grab the highest number you can find quickly because this is going down.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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