Value of Things: Following the Seahawks Blueprint?

It is customary after every Super Bowl to ask whether we can learn anything from the team that won. I suppose all 31 teams are doing that today. Usually the answer is no. There are any number of ways to win in the NFL and the Seahawks used one of those. Teams can try to outscore other teams with high octane offenses. They can be the riverboat gamblers that ride a hot hand to the finish line. They can also use a stifling defense to keep themselves in every game.

The last one sounds vaguely familiar. It should sound familiar because that is what the Texans did all season. It also should look familiar because it is what we saw on Sunday. We also saw it in the NFC Championship game and the divisional round as well. They just did it better than the Texans did it. The mistake that people make is looking at one single football game. Anything can happen in one single game. Instead, we should look at the aggregate.

The Seahawks were built on three equally vital concepts. Some of those concepts actually worked to perfection throughout the season and some didn't. Ironically, the Texans operate under those same premises. So, we can look at the Texans and Seahawks over the course of the full year to determine how close the Texans are to replicating that concept.

Stifling Defense

This was on full display in the Super Bowl and it was predicated on three different planks. First, you simply limit yards and points. Secondly, you pressure the quarterback which means generating sacks and pressures. Finally, you turn over your opponents and you do it often. We can compare the Texans and Seahawks on those four principles (yards, points, sacks, and turnovers).

• Seahawks YPG: 285.9
• Texans YPG: 277.2

• Seahawks PPG: 17.2
• Texans PPG: 17.4

• Seahawks Sacks: 47/180
• Texans Sacks: 47/133

• Seahawks Turnovers: 25
• Texans Turnovers: 29

We could argue for days about which defense was actually better. The Texans have the advantage on turnovers and yards allowed. The Seahawks had a slight advantage on points allowed and quarterback pressures (the second number in the sacks column). That advantage was pretty significant, so I would give the slight edge to the Seahawks, but I would certainly listen to anyone begging to differ.

Strong Running Game

I have a feeling we all know this is where the rubber will meet the road. DeMeco Ryans has long talked about his desire to be a physical football team and they have done that in spades on defense, but the offensive side of the ball is more tricky. I'm sure we know there is going to be a gap, but the question is how big of a gap do the Texans need to make up here?

• Seahawks rushing: 507 carries, 2096 yards, 4.1 YPC, 19 TD
• Texans rushing: 475 carries, 1852 yards, 3.9 YPC, 9 TD

Neither team was anywhere near the top in rushing. I suppose one of the reasons is that neither team have a running quarterback. It isn't a mistake that the Bills, Ravens, and Bears were the top three in team rushing. They rode running backs AND running quarterbacks to their level of success. Still, the deciding factor are those touchdowns. That is equivalent to 70 points. It is probably more on the level of 40 points because the Texans likely were settling for field goals.

Give the Texans 40 points and they become a top ten scoring offense. They would have not been on the Seahawks level because they were the third best scoring team in the league, but they certainly would have been better than 13th ranking and given that most of their games were one score games they might have been 13-4 or 14-3 instead of 12-5. That would have won them the AFC South and potentially given them the one or two seed in the conference.

Gaining an extra 250 yards over the course of a season is not a huge undertaking. You are talking about an extra 15 yards a game or even less. A part of that is running the ball more. You do that with more quality running backs. Everyone knows about Kenneth Walker, but the Seahawks also had Zach Charbonnet with over 700 yards. I should point out that he gained more than everyone on the Texans. So, the Texans need someone better than Nick Chubb to complement Woody Marks.

Competent Quarterback Play

I use the word competent purposefully. Neither the Seahawks nor the Texans are built around a franchise quarterback. There are some people that think C.J. Stroud can get there someday, but he clearly hasn't been that guy the last two years. The question is what is the current delta between Stroud and Sam Darnold? Stroud might not be able to be Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, or Burrow. He might not be able to be Prescott or even Herbert. He might be able to be Darnold.

• Sam Darnold: 238.1 YPG, 67.7%, 5.2 TD%, 2.9 INT%, 8.21 AY/A, 99.1 Rating
• C.J. Stroud: 217.2 YPG, 64.5%, 4.5 TD%, 1.9 INT%, 7.24 AY/A, 92.9 Rating

We can see the delta as plain as day. The biggest keys can be seen in the completion percentage and touchdown percentage. Darnold was just more productive. He also was more turnover prone. He led the NFL in turnovers. Ironically, the Texans had the least turnovers in the NFL in the regular season. So, for 14 games Stroud seemed to understand the assignment and managed to pull it off. Darnold threw five touchdowns and zero interceptions in the postseason with zero lost fumbles.

We obviously know what happened with Stroud. The question is how much you put in two games? I am usually not a big fan of small sample sizes. After all, Darnold might turn out to be another Joe Flacco. If we look at the aggregate and give Stroud just two more completions a game then he would end up matching Darnold in yards per game and likely completion percentage as well. Those two extra completions would also raise his rating. It's not completely unreasonable.

How far are the Texans away?

If we decide they are running the same blueprint then we would see that they are essentially there on defense, but a little behind on running the ball and quarterback play. However, maintaining the defense is harder than it sounds. Players leave via free agency and others get hurt when they were healthy before. Every season exists in its own universe. Theoretically, you could improve in some areas on defense as well The question is whether the push factors will outweigh the pull factors.

Running the ball requires not only a better running back, but a better line. How realistic is it to improve both in the same offseason? Are we to assume that Stroud will magically be better if these things happen? Are there other things that need to happen for him to reach Darnold's level? These are the questions facing the Texans before free agency and the draft.