2026 Men's NCAA Tournament Seed Projections: Illinois, Florida Move Up; Gonzaga Stumbles

Amid an eventful men's college basketball weekend, there has been some significant movement in the upper lines of FOX Sports bracket forecaster Mike DeCourcy's latest NCAA Tournament projections. Big moves for Florida, which crushed Arkansas, 111-77, while Illinois and Purdue are back up thanks to losses from Iowa State to Texas Tech and Kansas to Arizona on Saturday. Nebraska remains going strong after beating unranked USC, but Gonzaga dropped to a No. 4 seed, thanks to a stunning 70-59 loss to Saint Mary's on Saturday. And the SEC - which could get at least 10 teams in the men's NCAA Tournament this year - is on the rise behind Florida with Alabama, Kentucky and Missouri making upward moves. [COLLEGE HOOPS: 4 Takeaways From UConn's Win Over St. John's] Here is a complete look at DeCourcy's NCAA Tournament seed list: No. 1 seeds 1. Duke2. Michigan3. Arizona4. Connecticut No. 2 seeds 5. Florida6. Houston7. Illinois8. Purdue No. 3 seeds 9. Alabama10. Michigan State11. Iowa State12. Nebraska No. 4 seeds 13. Texas Tech14. Gonzaga15. Kansas16. Virginia No. 5 seeds 17. Arkansas18. North Carolina19. St. John's20. Vanderbilt No. 6 seeds 21. Tennessee22. Louisville23. BYU24. Kentucky No. 7 seeds 25. Villanova26. Saint Mary's27. Saint Louis28. Wisconsin No. 8 seeds 29. Utah State30. Miami Hurricanes31. UCF32. Miami RedHawks No. 9 seeds 33. Georgia34. Clemson35. Iowa36. Missouri No. 10 seeds 37. NC State38. UCLA39. SMU40. Texas No. 11 seeds 41. Texas A&M42. TCU43. New Mexico vs. 44. Indiana45. Santa Clara vs. 46. VCU No. 12 seeds 47. Belmont48. South Florida49. Yale50. Liberty No. 13 seeds 51. Stephen F. Austin52. UNC Wilmingon53. High Point54. Utah Valley No. 14 seeds 55. Hawaii56. Navy57. North Dakota State58. Austin Peay No. 15 seeds 59. Portland State60. Wright State61. Troy62. East Tennessee State No. 16 seeds 63. Merrimack64. LIU65. Howard66. UMBC67. Bethune-Cookman68. Morehead State And it's never too early to check in on the bubble. According to DeCourcy's seed list, Ohio State, Auburn, Cal and Virginia are the first four teams out of the tournament, while San Diego State, USC, Seton Hall and West Virginia are the next four out. Selection Sunday is less than one month away, and this list will inevitably evolve. For now, DeCourcy's latest seed list offers a clear snapshot of who's rising, who's falling and which programs are already building the resumes they'll need when March arrives.