ESPN: The NY Giants could be primed for a worst-to-first jump

New York Giants running back Cam Skattebo celebrates after a win. | Getty Images

Every year it seems as though a team makes the leap from the basement of their division to the penthouse.

The New York Giants are a prime candidate to make the same leap from 2025 to 2026 as the New England Patriots and Chicago Bears did from 2024 to 2025 - at least according to ESPN's Football Power Index.

Of the eight teams to finish last in their respective division, ESPN gives the Giants the third-best odds to win their division in 2026.

2025 record:4-13

Odds of winning division:11.6% (third in division)
Odds of making playoffs:22% (25th in NFL)

The Giants got to take two highly skilled players in the top 10 of the2026 draft. They have wideoutMalik Nabers, their best target on offense, coming back from aknee injurythat cost him most of last season. They're also getting back running backCam Skattebo, who was an exciting part of the offense until a midseasonankle injury. And they've added a good amount of veteran talent to improve the defense, including linebackerTremaine Edmundsand linemenShelby HarrisandDJ Reader.

The Giants also have a new coaching staff, led by John Harbaugh. New York fans are hoping Harbaugh's strong track record in Baltimore means he'll turn things around quickly.

This is all well and good, but of course the biggest reason why the Giants might win their division would be QBJaxson Dartmaking huge second-year improvements. It worked for the Bears and Patriots last season, so it could work for the Giants this season. Dart was already a surprising 17th in QBR (57.5) among qualifying QBs in 2025, thanks in part to his value as a runner. You can't expect him to suddenly become a top-10 quarterback, but it's possible, especially with Nabers back to catch his passes.

The Giants have finished last in the NFC East in each of the last two years, similar to both the Patriots and Bears who were in last place in their respective divisions in 2023 and 2024 prior to their leap.

Unlike the Patriots, the Giants have the relative misfortune of playing in a division that could be highly competitive in 2026. The Eagles are just a season removed from winning the Super Bowl and the Commanders from playing for the NFC Championship. The Cowboys, meanwhile, always have a potent offense and have sunk considerable resources into rebuilding their defense.

However, there's a good argument that the Giants have (significantly) underperformed their talent level in recent years.

There's a good argument that the Giants probably should have finished as an eight or even nine-win team last year despite a brutal schedule. And considering one of those shoulda-been" wins would have been over the Cowboys, the Giants would have finished with the second-best record in their division by two or three games. They face a schedule that looks to be easier this year, at least on paper, while accumulating more talent and getting big upgrades in coaching.

The Giants should have greater attention to detail and situational football under John Harbaugh than under Brian Daboll, which will be a significant boost for both the offense and the defense.

Likewise, the additions of defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson, secondary coach Donald D'Alesio, and defensive backs coach Addison Lynch, as well as the retention of outside linebackers coach Charlie Bullen, should make for a better scheme fit and better coached players at premium positions.

The lynchpin to the Giants' success will be Jaxson Dart and his development.

As we've noted recently, development is rarely linear. There will likely be improvements in some areas and not others, or perhaps even some regression as Dart learns and grows.

There are a few key areas in which Dart needs to improve to take the next step, and the team take the next step along with him.

• Footwork - Dart's footwork isn't a mess", and in fact there were plays in which it was quite good. However, he doesn't consistently sync his footwork up with the structure and timing of the play. That impacts how he's able to progress through his reads as well as his lower-body mechanics to consistently deliver the ball with velocity and precision. There were times when it looked as though Dart wasn't progressing through his reads, but was in fact progressing too fast because he didn't have his feet to serve as that metronome to time his eyes with the receivers coming open. Simply being able to consistently operate within the structure of the play will be a huge unlock for him.
• Dealing with pressure - While not the worst quarterback in sack rate and pressure-to-sack rate in the NFL, Dart was among the bottom quartile, even when including backups and spot starters. Dart's willingness to scramble and extend led to some absolute magic at times, but also missed opportunities as he went Big Play Hunting rather than taking slight profit and moving on. Dart is a boom or bust" player when pressure leaks through, and part of taking the next step will be becoming more consistent on those high-leverage plays.
• Making mature decisions - In Dart's own words he needs to become a more mature decision maker with the ball in his hands. He might not be the same kind of freak athlete as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, and doesn't have blazing speed or rare size and power. However, he does have legitimately good vision and twitchy agility as a runner. His ability to simplify the defense and make them pay for losing contain is too much of a weapon to take away. However, teaching him when it's worth putting his body on the line when scrambling will be key to his development. There's a time to take on risk to make a play, but more often he needs to learn when to go down or step out of bounds. Dart has the potential to be a similar kind of quarterback as a young Russell Wilson, but he needs the reps to develop. He won't get those reps if he's on the trainer's table because he got hurt trying to convert a second-and-7 in the first quarter.

The biggest question in whether the Giants can make good on their potential for a leap in 2026 is Malik Nabers' health. There are real questions as to whether Nabers will be ready to start the season and when he'll be back to full speed following his ACL and meniscus repairs. The Giants have added 6 receivers this off-season, plus TE Isaiah Likely, to help upgrade the receiving corps as well as mitigate the loss of Wan'Dale Robinson and the injury to Nabers. Dart's ability to simplify the defense helped to keep the offense (relatively) productive despite losing Nabers, but the hope is that all the additions will give the Giants enough reliable options that the offense is able to take a step forward.

Of course, even ESPN's third-best odds to win the division is only 11.6%, and those are pretty long odds to make the leap from worst to first. The Giants absolutely can make that leap and shock the football world, just as the Patriots, Bears, and Jacksonville Jaguars did a season ago.

But even being in contention to win the division, or even for a Wild Card, spot should be considered a win after the last three years.