Historic El Niño able to supercharge extreme weather looks increasingly likely – researchers

Models show overwhelming chance that this year's El Nino to rank among largest going back to 1950

El Nino is strengthening and the risks of a historic event with the power to supercharge extreme weather around the world are rising, according to the latest analysis from the US National Weather Service.

Models show there is now an 81% chance that a very strong El Nino that would rank among the largest El Nino events in the historical record going back to 1950" will develop before the end of this year, forecasters said in an advisory released Thursday. There is almost near certainty - a 97% probability - that the conditions will persist through spring 2027.