Why Cowboys fans are allowed to be optimistic about 2026
A Dallas Cowboys fan celebrates a touchdown. (Photo by Matthew Pearce/Icon Sportswire/Corbis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)Right now, every single one of the 32 NFL teams is excited about what they're doing, and every single fan base believes that if things work out just the right way, their team will make the playoffs.
This is the time of year where hope springs eternal and everybody feels optimistic about the new season. As Cowboys fans, we collectively found reasons to be optimistic about a defense that's been completely revamped - after all, it can't get any worse, or can it? We're still telling each other why the players the Cowboys added via trade and free agency are better than the players we lost. We've convinced ourselves that this year's rookie class will have an immediate impact and are even rooting for UDFA tight ends to make the roster.
To varying degrees, almost every Cowboys fan will acknowledge that he or she is perhaps just a little bit more optimistic about the 2026 Cowboys right now than an objective look at the facts warrants. But so what?
At this point in time, other teams are no different. Or do you think Eagles fans, bless their little kelly-green hearts, are sitting there going stop all this postseason talk, you are way too optimistic? Training camps are still more than a month away, and the opening game is even further away, but all 32 teams are going into the season hopeful that This Could Be The Year.
Because in the parity-driven NFL, last season doesn't matter. Fact is, the competitive balance' in the league gives each team hope of finishing at the top of the standings regardless of its record the previous season. Sometimes for no other reason than that other teams in the division are even worse. In the NFL, this is called parity.
- The churn factor: It's not a big secret anymore that the playoff field churns by about 50% from year to year. Since the league moved to a 14-team playoff format in 2021, an average of six new teams made the playoffs every year. Only once in that five-year span, in 2024, did that number dip to four teams. This means it's highly probable that six teams that did not make the playoffs in 2025 will make the playoffs in 2026.
- The rebound factor: Every year since 1990 there have been a handful of teams that had a losing record in the previous season, yet still made the playoffs the following season. Since 2021, the league has averaged almost five rebound teams per year.
- Worst-to-first factor: The rebound factor doesn't only affect teams who narrowly missed the playoffs in the previous year. In four of the last five years, at least one team went from worst-to-first" in its division. Last year, three teams made the improbable transition from worst to first: The Patriots rebounded from 4-13 in 2024, won the AFC North in 2025 with a 14-3 record, and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. The Bears improved from 5-12 to take the NFC North last year, and the Panthers were in a two-way tie for the worst W/L record in the NFC South in 2024 before winning the division last year by the narrowest margin and an 8-9 record.
Don't believe it? Check out the numbers below.
body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td,body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th,body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important;}body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td,body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 0px 6px !important;}| Playoff Participants by Year, 2021-2025 | ||||||||
| Churn" Factor teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before | Rebound" Factor teams with losing records the year before | Worst-to-first" teams going from worst (or tied for worst) to first in their division | ||||||
| Year | # Teams | Teams | # Teams | Teams | # Teams | Teams | ||
| 2025 | 6 | CAR, CHI, JAX, NE, SEA, SF | 5 | CAR, CHI, JAX, NE, SF | 3 | CAR, CHI, NE | ||
| 2024 | 4 | DEN, LAC, MIN, WAS | 4 | DEN, LAC, MIN, WAS | 0 | - | ||
| 2023 | 6 | CLE, DET, GB, HOU, LAR, PIT | 5 | CLE, GB, HOU, LAR, TB | 1 | HOU | ||
| 2022 | 7 | BAL, JAX, LAC, MIA, MIN, NYG, SEA | 5 | BAL, JAX, MIN, NYG, SEA | 1 | JAX | ||
| 2021 | 7 | ARI, CIN, DAL, LVR, NE, PHI, SF | 5 | CIN, DAL, NE, PHI, SF | 1 | CIN |
All of these numbers have a very simple message: Anything can happen in the NFL. Every new NFL season is always also a new chance for teams that fell short of the playoffs the season before. The NFL is intrinsically designed to be a parity-driven league; the draft, revenue sharing, the salary cap, compensatory draft picks, even the schedule; everything about the NFL is designed so that every team from every market has a legit opportunity to compete year-in and year-out.
Yes, there are some constants between the 2025 Cowboys and the 2026 Cowboys. But there are also some significant changes. But simply saying something like The Cowboys will be bad this year because they were bad last year" is nothing more than a lazy take.
The Cowboys could very well end up winning the NFC East, just as they could end up last in the division. If they do, it has nothing to do with last year's team, and everything to do with this year's team. And for the 7-9-1 Cowboys, it wouldn't even take a 2024-Patriots-sized swing for that. A three-game swing in either direction could mean the difference between a top and a bottom finish in the East.
Every year a team that nobody was thinking of as a contender suddenly strings together a couple of wins early in the year, starts playing like a good football team in the middle of the season and actually becomes a good football team as it clinches a playoff spot late in the season.
There's no reason why the Cowboys can't be that team in 2026.