Global phone market dropped in Q2 2026, and the holiday season might not help it later
- Omdia's latest research report states Q2 2026 brought a 4% decline in the global smartphone market, and the memory crisis is getting all the blame.
- Samsung and Apple saw a 2% and 4% increase, respectively, while all others trend downward.
- Omdia's researchers suspect that the phone market will continue to decline even into the busier holiday season later this year.
- Budget phones are also expected to take a major hit with an expected 22% drop in market share.
Research data for the second quarter is in, and while the market has dipped, there are two shining stars.
Today (July 13), Omdia shared its data regarding how the smartphone market has performed in Q2 2026. According to its research, the phone market dipped by 4% year-on-year, and Omdia is pointing a finger at the ongoing memory shortage for this drop. Its analysis states, "The current dynamic has created severe market polarization, reflecting stark differences in vendors' mitigation strategies which vary according to their priorities, scale, price-band focus, and core audience demographics."
Despite this decline, Omdia says Samsung and Apple have gained ground, and the former is in first place. Samsung reportedly held 22% of the market share, a 2% increase compared to Q2 2025. The post states this is likely thanks to its "resilient demand" and the delayed launch of the Galaxy S26 series. Coming in second place is Apple with 20% market share (4% increase). However, Omdia raises two key points: Q2 is typically a slow period for Apple, but the company has raised prices for its other devices.
There are questions about whether or not this could impact its iPhones later this year. While Samsung and Apple are the only two companies to see an increase in volume in Q2, Runar Bjorhovde, principal analyst at Omdia, says this might not last. Bjorhovde states, "We anticipate the sharpest volume declines to hit in the upcoming two quarters, where normal seasonal demand peaks - driven by new launches, holidays and shopping festivals-collide with constrained memory chip supply."
It's also not the memory shortage that's putting more stress on companies. Bjorhovde says "semiconductor bottlenecks, such as within foundries," are also causing cost issues.
Searching for better times
The phone market hasn't had the best of years. A Q1 2026 report saw the U.S. market drop by 3% YoY. It was said that while the memory shortage and storage costs were significant culprits, so were "restrained carrier upgrades." Samsung and Apple were highlighted earlier this year, as well. Samsung, while dropping 5% YoY, still led the Android charge with 24% of the market. On the other hand, Apple dropped 3%, but held a 60% majority.
The surprise in Q1 was Motorola. While everyone else struggled, Motorola saw an 18% growth earlier this year.
A recent research report published by Omdia says times aren't looking good for budget phones. Devices placed more affordably might be the hardest hit, thanks to the pressure companies are feeling from rising memory costs. The budget phone market could plummet by 22%. This is a sour future for phones priced under $400. With that, Omdia speculates that devices priced at $400 or higher could be where companies turn next.
The reason has to do with materials. Omdia states that higher-priced phones typically offer more leeway in what a company can swap out to lower costs.
Android Central's TakePrices are everything in the market. No one wants to burn a hole in their pocket. This is an issue Omdia brought up in its research. Le Xuan Chiew, a research manager at Omdia, said that memory prices might decline early in 2027, but there's a chance consumers won't see market prices anywhere near 2025 levels. We've seen how consumers' worries have caused them to buy phones now, not later. I can only hope that things get better.