There are fewer “elite” QBs in the NFL than you’ve been told

from on 2026-07-20 13:00 (#773TA)

We've become surprisingly casual with the word elite." One of the most common shortcuts for elite QBs" in the NFL is counting Super Bowl rings. That may have worked forty years ago.

The problem is that rings have become a remarkably poor way of separating truly elite quarterbacks from everyone else.

When nearly one-quarter of the NFL's starting quarterbacks own a Super Bowl ring, winning one can no longer be the benchmark for elite quarterback play.

Think about it. Elite literally means rare. If almost one fourth of starting quarterbacks satisfy your definition... your definition is wrong.

But that hasn't always been the case. Somewhere during the early stages of the Super Bowl era (Super Bowl I was played after the 1966 season) the idea of the elite QB must have been born, and with it the notion that an elite QB had to have won a Super Bowl ring. And that notion held true throughout the 70s and 80s when only a select few QBs in the league were actual Super Bowl winners.

Up until 1991, there were never more than four or five active QBs in the league with a Super Bowl ring to their name.
From 1992 to 2006, the NFL averaged 5.3 active Super Bowl-winning QBs, with the total never exceeding six in any single season.
In the 12 years from 2007-2018, the average climbed to 7.3, and six seasons had eight active Super Bowl-winning QBs playing at the same time.
In 2019 the number of QBs with a ring peaked at nine, and the average through 2025 stayed high at seven.
In 2026, there will be six QBs with a Super Bowl ring playing in the NFL.

Whether the increase is driven by player longevity, free agency, the salary cap, or simple chance doesn't really matter. What matters is that a Super Bowl ring no longer separates the truly exceptional from the merely accomplished.

If we're looking for elite," we need a better definition.

One way of doing that is by quantifying how much better a given quarterback was versus his peers who were playing at the same time. ProFootballReference.com provides such a metric which they call Passer Rating Index (or Rate+) and which calculates a QB's passer rating relative to his NFL peers playing at the same time.

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Passer Rating Index (Rate+)

For each NFL season, PFR.com compute two things:

1. The league average passer rating for the three-year period with the given year in the middle.

2. The standard deviation of the stat for all individuals who had 14 or more pass attempts per scheduled game during the three-year period.

Next, they compute how many standard deviations away from the league average each player was in each of his seasons. Then they multiply that number by 15 and add it to 100, and that is the number you see.

Reading the results:

100 is league average.

115 is one standard deviation better than the NFL average at the time, 85 is one standard deviation below the average.

A typical league-leading season will be in the high 120s or the low-to-mid 130s.

The best QBs of the Super Bowl era.

Here's a list of the 11 QBs that were at least one standard deviation better than their peers over the course of their entire career:

Top 11 Rate+ QBs of the Super Bowl era
Player	Games Started	Rate+
Steve Young (HOF)	143	126
Joe Montana (HOF)	164	122
Len Dawson (HOF)	159	120
Roger Staubach (HOF)	114	119
Peyton Manning (HOF)	265	118
Aaron Rodgers	257	118
Drew Brees (HOF)	286	117
Lamar Jackson	107	117
Joe Burrow	77	116
Tom Brady	333	115
Tony Romo	127	115

The list contains multiple champions, multiple non-champions, Hall of Famers, and players who will never reach Canton.

Notice what's missing from this list. Super Bowl rings.

Five Hall of Famers sit at the top of the list. Steve Young, Joe Montana, Len Dawson, Roger Staubach, and Peyton Manning top the list, and there's little doubt in my mind that these guys were some of the best to play the game - in their time. Montana and Young played until they were 38, (Staubach played until he was 37 but only started at age 27 due to his Navy commitment), so QB longevity is nothing new to the NFL, but long careers often come with a downside: they tend to ebb away towards the end.

Aaron Rodgers is a good example of this. No doubt he is a top 10 QB of all time, but a decade ago, with 103 starts under his belt (2008-2014), he was sitting at the top of this list with a Rate+ of 127. Since then he's mixed standout years with average years and his career Rate+ has dropped to 118 accordingly. This is obviously a watchout for the two young" QBs on this list, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, and a reason I've set the minimum threshold for most of the tables in this post to 50 starts.

Tony Romo recently said his only regret is not winning the Cowboys a Super Bowl. I might have phrased that differently; the Cowboys were unable to put together a team capable of leveraging the 12th best passer in league history to get to a Super Bowl.

Rate+ of Super Bowl-winning QBs since 1996

Thanks in no small part to Tom Brady, who vacuumed up seven Super Bowls by himself, there are only 18 Super Bowl winning QBs over the last 30 years. Here they are, sorted by their Career Rate+:

Rate+ of Super Bowl-winning QBs since 1996
Player	SB Season	Games started	Career Rate +
Peyton Manning	06, 15	265	118
Aaron Rodgers	10	257	118
Drew Brees	09	286	117
Tom Brady	01, 03, 04, 14, 16, 18, 20	333	115
Kurt Warner	99	116	113
Russell Wilson	13	202	113
Patrick Mahomes	19, 22, 23	126	113
Brett Favre	96	298	109
Ben Roethlisberger	05, 08	247	109
Jalen Hurts	24	82	106
John Elway	97&98	231	105
Matthew Stafford	21	239	105
Brad Johnson	02	125	103
Eli Manning	07, 11	234	98
Joe Flacco	12	201	94
Nick Foles	17	58	93
Sam Darnold	25	90	92
Trent Dilfer	00	113	88

When one third of the Super Bowl winning quarterbacks (6/18) have a below average, or slightly above average (Brand Johnson, 103) Career Rate+, then using Super Bowls to define elite passers is no longer a relevant argument.

There are 207 QBs, active between 1955 and 2025, with at least 50 starts to their name. Here's where you could draw the line by Career Rate+:

115 or higher: 5% (11 players)
112 or higher: 11% (23 players)
110 or higher: 15% (31 players)

115 feels a bit restrictive for the elite tier, 112 feels about right (113 would be 9%), and 110 feels a bit generous, but is a nice round number. If we use the 110 as the cutoff for an elite QB, then only seven of the 18 Super Bowl winners above were truly elite, further rendering moot the argument that elite passers can be defined by their number of rings.

Peerless Cowboys Passers

At least once in his of her life, every single Cowboys fan out there has been involved in a debate about how the different quarterbacks the Cowboys have had over the last 60+ years compare to each other.

The difficulty in these discussions is that you're discussing different players, on different teams, in different eras. But now you can compare them with Rate+, which might actually change our understanding of Cowboys history.

So below is a rundown of the Cowboys illustrious list of QBs along with each QBs Career Rate+ along with a Rate+ number for his time in Dallas.

Cowboys QB History
Player	Starter Seasons	Career Rate+	Cowboys Rate+
Eddie LeBaron	60-61	100	102
Don Meredith	62-68	105	105
Craig Morton	69-70, 72	105	103
Roger Staubach	71, 73-79	119	119
Danny White	80-85, 87	106	106
Steve Pelluer	86, 88	90	95
Troy Aikman	89-00	106	106
Primetime" Troy Aikman	91-96	116	116
Quincy Carter	01 & 03	88	86
Chad Hutchinson	2002	85	80
Vinny Testaverde	2004	96	95
Drew Bledsoe	2005	98	98
Tony Romo	2006-2015	116	116
Dak Prescott	2016-to date	112	112

The Cowboys have been fortunate to have four periods of top-level QB play. For the first two, Staubach and Aikman, the front office was able to build top-quality teams around their QBs and were rewarded with five Super Bowls in total. The franchise was completely lost in QB purgatory for half a decade before successively lucking into Tony Romo and Dak Prescott. Only this time, the front office as unable to surround the two with top-quality teams, and despite two decades of top-level QB play, the franchise only managed four playoff wins over that span.

Compared to their peers in their own eras, the Cowboys have had a number of excellent QBs. However, Roger Staubach stands tall above all others in the peer comparison, as does Troy Aikman. Craig Morton, Don Meredith and Danny White all compare favorably to their peers in their time, and Tony Romo is arguably the best Cowboys QBs since Roger Staubach, but all of them will always carry a little asterisk in the Cowboys history books for what they did not achieve. Dak Prescott's task is clear: avoid the asterisk.

Quarterbacks don't become elite by winning Super Bowls. Super Bowls simply determine whether elite quarterbacks are remembered differently.

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