Michael Penix Jr. or Tua Tagovailoa? The answers matters now and in the future

Jun 16, 2026; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa (1) and Michael Penix Jr. (9) on the field during Minicamp. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Falcons have had a quarterback problem for years, a statement blindingly obvious to anyone who has been an Atlanta Falcons fan over the past few seasons.

Since 2022, when the Falcons hastily traded Matt Ryan to Indianapolis in the wake of a failed effort to trade for Deshaun Watson, they've started Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, Taylor Heinicke, Kirk Cousins, and Michael Penix Jr.; that's more than one starter per season. In fact, they've had two different quarterbacks starting for the team in each of those four years, and they have not had one true franchise guy at any point in that span.

Penix could still be that player, but it's hardly a given. We enter 2026 with Penix recovering from ACL surgery, one of many such surgeries in his college and now NFL career, and with very little on-field to suggest he's a potentially elite quarterback. He's competing with Tua Tagovailoa, who is coming off a dismal season with the Dolphins where he was benched, and has dealt with scary concussions throughout his career. The only guys behind them are big-armed undrafted free agent Jack Strand and journeyman backup Trevor Siemien, so there's very little chance of a Cinderella story if Tua and Penix don't pan out.

That makes the quarterback battle crucial on two fronts. It's obviously important for this year, because the better player needs to have the reins of an offense richly veined with playmakers to help these Falcons shake off eight straight losing seasons and recapture hope and competence. But it's also important for next year, because any outcome outside of Penix seizing this job and excelling will likely have the Falcons looking to draft, sign, or trade for a potential franchise option.

Why it matters in 2026

The Falcons don't want to continue to squander their talent. Bijan Robinson was the league's most productive running back last year, leading the NFL in yards from scrimmage, but was stuck on a team that had a frequently anemic passing attack and blew far too many games. Drake London and Kyle Pitts are game-changing talents who have dealt with streaky, inconsistent passers throughout their careers. Jahan Dotson, Zachariah Branch, and Austin Hooper offer real talent-and in the case of Branch, really intriguing potential-but could see their production blunted if the quarterback position isn't effectively settled.

A great quarterback would have a passing attack with this many weapons humming. A good quarterback would have it looking capable, at minimum. As we've seen over the years, promising but inconsistent quarterbacks and shaky ones alike have conspired to make it look elite for shining moments and disappointing for long stretches.

The Falcons badly need to figure out whether Tua or Penix is the right fit for these weapons and this passing attack. At his best, Tua can deliver timely, very accurate passes in the short-to-intermediate areas of the field, a skill set that plays well with the YAC capabilities of Bijan, Brian Robinson, London, and Branch, as well as Kevin Stefanski and Tommy Rees' screen designs. Penix has been more inconsistent across the board in his brief career, but his ability to attack defenses deep opens up potentially devastating big plays for London, Pitts, and Dotson.

There are significant stylistic differences here that might come into play if this ends up being a very close battle, but the likelier outcome is simply that one of these quarterbacks is more healthy and effective this summer and wins the battle outright well before preseason wraps. At the moment, my money would be on Tua, who had a head start as the healthy player earlier this summer and should be able to reliably pepper his supporting cast with short-to-intermediate passes the way Kirk Cousins did at his best last year.

Whoever wins, however, will need to be good enough to at least partially unlock this passing game's significant potential, lest their backup catapult past them midseason.

Why it matters in 2027 and beyond

Let's say Tua grabs the starting job and lands somewhere between his 2024 and 2025 seasons, finishing with something like 13 games played and a 68% completion percentage. It's more or less a given that Tua will miss some time given that he has appeared in 17 games just once in his career. The hope would be that he could exceed the two-year averages of about 2,750 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions he managed in Miami.

If that's the case, will the Falcons sign up for a long-term deal with Tua? I would say it's very unlikely, though they could go for a two-year, incentive-laden deal if Tua plays well in those 13 games and they don't like the options they survey in the draft and across the league. Barring a spectacular, fully healthy seasons from Tua, the Falcons are not going to sign on to make him their quarterback for the next 3-5 years; the likelier outcome is that Tua's second career is spent picking up quality short-term deals as a stopgap or low-end starter in Atlanta or elsewhere.

There's a narrow band in which Tua becomes Atlanta's long-term starter under Stefanski, in other words. If he seizes the job I'll be rooting very hard for him to become the guy he was in 2022 and 2023, when he put up 54 touchdowns against 22 interceptions and led the league in passing yards on season, because it would be great for the Falcons if he could recapture his best years and stay healthy. But given the past couple of seasons and his significant injury history, it's not a strong bet that Tua will leave 2026 as the unquestioned or even likely starter in 2027.

Penix is in a different boat. If he doesn't win the job, the Falcons could very well dangle him for trade in 2026 or 2027, banking on a team that misses out on a rookie quarterback being willing to bet on the arm talent and their own ability to maximize his ability and adding to their war chest of draft picks. Barring a trade, though, Penix would be Tua insurance with starting experience and evident talent, which is a valuable thing to have. If he can't beat out Tua, however, I'd say his long-term future with the Falcons is very much in doubt heading into the final year of his rookie deal (his contract does, however, have the fifth year option).

It's a different story if he does win the job, which I've continually said unlocks the best-case scenario for Atlanta. Penix starting, staying healthy, and playing well does not entirely dispel the long haul concern about his injury history-nothing can do that, really-but it would give the Falcons the confidence to go into 2027 with him as the starter. Atlanta will always want a quality insurance policy for Penix, but if he can blossom in Stefanski's offense, the Falcons will not need to invest early round draft capital or massive dollars in his replacement and can build the offense around what he does best with confidence. That frees them up to augment the roster in 2027 without limitations, especially if they finish as a playoff team or borderline playoff team, and could accelerate their path to becoming a perennial postseason contender. The fifth year option gives them flexibility for 2028 to ensure he stays healthy if they're hesitant to commit to longer than that, as well.

Of course, that also is an ideal outcome that can't be said to be likely at the moment. We have seen glimpses of tantalizing talent from Penix, but not enough to believe he's going to become a franchise quarterback yet. We also know that another significant ACL injury adds a cautionary note for a team hoping to rely on him as a franchise player, and that Penix is both older for a quarterback entering his third year (26) and already in the third year of his rookie deal. If Penix does surpass Tua but does not show signs of a significant growth, which is obviously a real possibility, it's something of a worse case scenario for Atlanta's long-term outlook at quarterback. It would mean the Falcons may very well go into next year with Penix either a clear backup or traded, Tua headed elsewhere, and the team having to figure out their next franchise guy or at least stopgap option.

Tua or Penix winning the job and excelling is the ideal, with my preference being Penix as a younger player still on a rookie deal. In a scenario where neither one is a true standout, the Falcons are going to be looking closely at a potentially loaded quarterback class in the 2027 NFL Draft and an underwhelming free agent class that could be headlined by Kyler Murray, Jacoby Brissett, and maybe Baker Mayfield. Given how easy it is to miss on top quarterbacks if you're a quality football team and the dearth of high-end options likely to be available without surrendering significant assets otherwise, the Falcons really would like Tua or Penix to be the guy in 2026 and well beyond.

We'll spend a lot of time previewing and reviewing this battle as it goes on, so stay tuned. Just know how important it is for this year and well beyond.