NFC South Over/Unders 2026: Somebody Has to Win

Our over/under series continues as we roll on to the NFC South, one of the most... uh... a particularly interesting di... uh... The NFC South: one of the divisions in football this year! The poor NFC South gets so much flack, but to be fair, most of that is deserved. They do not have a team in the top 18 in our DVOA projections in the Almanac. They do not have a team with better than +5000 odds to win the Super Bowl. They are not considered contenders in any fashion, and most people have their divisional winner already penciled in as losing to the NFC West's top Wild Card team in five months. Now, we say that, but making assumptions like that in August is how you look like fools in January. This is both a sometimes, teams surprise you" statement, as well as noting that bad teams can make playoff noise, too; the Panthers put a real scare into the Rams in this year's Wild Card Round. It's a division for the feisty underdog; the no one believed in us!" teams. Because, hey, it's true - no one believes in any of these teams. It also shapes up as one of the most competitive divisions in the league, and as long as each division gets an automatic bid to the postseason, that matters. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are your division favorites at +170, and that's tied with the Lions for the worst odds for a division favorite in the league. All four teams are at +400 or higher, and no other division can boast that. The Almanac sees the Bucs as a fairly clear favorite, but it's not unreasonable to back anyone here. In a land without giants, anyone can become king! So, who will top the least impressive mountain in the league this year? Let's dig in. And remember, you can search for the best odds on these, or any other props with ourProp Shop.

Atlanta Falcons (6.5) The Falcons chapter in the Almanac starts the Falcons are not a disaster." That is an ominous way to begin. It has strong My shirt saying we're not a disaster' is bringing up many questions already answered by my shirt" vibes. The not a disaster" tour has to start at edge rusher, where the Falcons finally, after I-kid-you-not decades of letting their pass rush atrophy, invested two first-round picks in the position. It paid off - they topped 50 sacks for the first time since 1997. How is that looking today? Well, Jalon Walker tore his ACL, so he'll miss the entire season. And from reports, it sounds like James Pearce Jr. will face some sort of suspension after his offseason battery charges. This caused Falcons GM Ian Cunningham to come out and say that the sky isn't falling," which, again, is not the sort of thing you say when the heavens remain firmly stuck over your head. While both are out, they'll be relying on the likes of Cameron Thomas and Samson Ebukam to generate their pass rush. Good veteran additions for depth, not really the guys you want to be stirring the drink. And then you have the passing game. Tua Tagovailoa vs. Michael Penix Jr. was never going to shape up to be the world's most inspiring quarterback competition, but it's also yet to get off the ground. Penix has yet to participate in team drills as he keeps recovering from last year's torn ACL, though don't worry - his doctor says he has an amazing ACL," which again, things you don't say if and so on and so forth. That leaves Tagovailoa as the presumed starter, at least to begin the season. But Tagovailoa has a lengthy injury list himself, and he was sidelined to start camp as well, necessitating the Falcons to go out and sign some warm arms just to run practices. He's better now, but man, there is no confidence in either player in this room lasting a full season or playing particularly well even when they do. Kevin Stefanski has his work cut out for him, especially when the receiving corps after Drake London is... uninspiring, shall we say. The Falcons aren't entirely devoid of talent. Bijan Robinson is still here, Kyle Pitts Sr. has matured into a very useful player, the offensive line is very solid. This isn't a disaster. But that's not the bar you're looking to clear, you know? Strongest Position: I'm torn between the running backs and the safeties, both areas where the Falcons are pretty clearly the best in the division. Xavier Watts and Jessie Bates III make a great duo in the defensive backfield; Watts is ascending fast after a great rookie season and while Bates may be a bit past his prime, he's still a great veteran presence. However, picking someone other than Bijan Robinson feels a little like trying to be clever for the sake of being clever, and bolstering him with Brian Robinson doesn't hurt, either. Weakest Position: Penix! Tagovailoa! Whoever wins, we lose. Biggest Question: How does the wide receiver room shake out? Drake London as your WR1 is fine. But as of right now, you have Jahan Dotson and Olamide Zaccheaus penciled in as your next two guys, and that is not exactly the arsenal you're looking for when you're trying to help a young quarterback reach the next level. Does Zachariah Branch play a big role as a rookie? Could Chris Blair maybe take some snaps? Can Atlanta sit in four tight end sets all day long and not worry about this? Time for Stefanski to get a little creative. Verdict: I'm going under 6.5, though I'm always wary of betting on someone to go that low. I'm more likely to push that up a little further, buying under 7.5 (-160) or even under 8.5 (-300) and then putting that into a parlay with something else. I don't think the Falcons are going to be the worst team in football or anything, but I do disagree with the Almanac and think they'll be the worst team in the division. Carolina Panthers (7.5) The 2026 Panthers were the 10th-worst team in the DVOA era to make the playoffs. They required the help of the eliminated Falcons beating the eliminated Saints in Week 18 to make it. And then they nearly beat the Rams! Football is crazy sometimes. I like, broadly, what Carolina did this offseason, with one flashing red warning point just kind of hovering in the background. I'm a big fan of adding both Jaelan Phillips and Devin Lloyd to the defense, to start. They may have overpaid, slightly, but I like the aggression and decisiveness of the moves, outbidding the Eagles to bring Phillips in particular. The Eagles' pass rush looked much better when they added Phillips midseason; I suspect he'll do the same in Carolina. Lloyd has become one of my favorite off-ball linebackers to watch, and I thought Jacksonville losing him was a huge loss. Hey, one 90s expansion franchise's loss is the other one's gain, right? Our projections still have Carolina 29th in defensive DVOA, but I'm more bullish on them than that. I'm not sure they'll get far past average, but I think it will be a respectable unit. I will admit that I was more excited for them before camp started and everyone got hurt. That includes both tackles, Ikem Ekwonu and Taylor Moton. It includes rookie receiver Chris Brazzell II, edge rusher Nic Scourton, Tershawn Wharton still isn't back... I get it, it's a bit of a walking wounded group and it's not even the middle of August yet. That's not the thing I'm concerned about, though it certainly is not a positive. I'm not concerned about the weapons behind Tet McMillan, or the line depth behind Monroe Freeling and Rasheed Walker. It's August; it's the time to be optimistic that all of this will work out. Many of the injured players will be back, Freeling will step into a starting role with aplomb, McMillan will ascend into the top 10 at his position - I like a lot of the framework. When healthy. As always, it'll come down to Bryce Young. Young has made notable steps forward in each of the last two seasons... and he still ranked 31st in passing DVOA last year. If he takes another step forward and approaches the heady heights of average, that's the best-case scenario for Carolina - they're probably repeat division champions in that world. If he takes a step backwards and flops, that's not the end of the world - they don't need to worry about extending him and can pick a quarterback in what is supposed to be a QB-heavy class in 2027. The worst-case scenario is if Young steps up to be, say, the 20th-best quarterback in football. That's no-man's-land; not good enough to commit too but not bad enough to be worth the risk of dumping him for a late first-round QB. That's the one dilemma that could curse Carolina more than their injury plague already has. Strongest Position: Interior defensive line. I may have gone with the offensive line before the injuries to both tackles, but Derrick Brown remains probably the best individual player on the roster. The rest of the interior is solid but unspectacular - they'll be better when Wharton is ready to go, but he's not a huge needle mover. Brown is in the conversation for best DT in football, though, so that gets my nod. Weakest Position: Time to put up or shut up, Bryce Young. We've seen things improve in jumps and starts; now you have to do it consistently. It's just a major second contract on the line; no pressure. Biggest Question: Apart from Young? How Rasheed Walker and Monroe Freeling handle the tackle spots after Ikem Ekwonu tore his patella and Taylor Moton deals with blood clots. The Panthers did not want to be on plan B at both slots this early in the season, but at least they acquired two separate options to handle both tackle spots, at least until Moton is ready. Verdict: I'm over 7.5, even post all the injuries. However, I remain, as always, a coward, so I'm more likely to duck down to over 6.5 (-166) or maybe even over 5.5 (-310), just to pay for a little more peace of mind. But I think Young will continue to be a little bit better than the year before, the defense will approach average, and in the NFC South, that could well get you over .500. New Orleans Saints (7.5) The Almanac has the Saints as the second-worst team in football, just clearing the mess that is the Browns. I can't quite bring myself to go that far down; I look at them and I'm happier with what I see than with, say, the Falcons. But the odds out there have them as a potential sleeper team; second favorites to win the division. Mmm. No, no, I'm not there, either. I do kinda like Tyler Shough. Not in terms of his ceiling; after being in college since Antebellum, he's developed about as much as he's going to. But he can competently run a well-designed offense. He doesn't panic under pressure, he's shown an ability to go through his reads, he's relaxed, he's poised... he's 27, so he should be ahead of the curve there compared to the other rookies, but he is ahead of said curve. He's not good enough to the point where the Saints shouldn't look for a better prospect if they happen to be terrible and have a high draft pick. If they are as bad as the Almanac predicts they will be, a Dante Moore or a CJ Carr or someone will be available and they'll jump on it. But I think Shough is a perfect cromulent third-tier quarterback and better than our projections think he will be, and that alone raises the Saints' floor. And then the defense comes along and lowers the ceiling right back down again. Demario Davis and Alontae Taylor are gone. Brian Bresee tore his ACL and will miss the season. Guys like Pete Werner, Christian Miller and Martin Emerson Jr. are penciled in for significant snaps, and there's not that much depth behind them. Depth is an issue all over the place, and much more worrying when you talk about the injury histories of Chris Olave, Jordyn Tyson and Erik McCoy - I'd be surprised if the offense makes it full the entire 17-game schedule intact. The Saints spent most of the offseason trying to raise the floor of the various pieces around Shough to give him a clean test - a better WR2 in Tyson, David Edwards to shore up the offensive line, Travis Etienne to boost the running game. I just am not sure the foundation they're building here is all that stable, when it comes to joints and ligaments and the like. As far as the Almanac crew goes, I qualify as a Saints optimist; they should be normal bad and not worst-of-league bad this season. But as far as the hype their hot streak at the end the year generated... well, count me out. Strongest Position: The offensive line looks solid as long as it stays healthy. The left side, in particular - Kelvin Banks Jr., David Edwards and Erik McCoy are the best left tackle, left guard and center combination in the division. Shough took too many sacks last year, and the addition of Edwards should help significantly. Weakest Position: I do like Shough a lot, but a 27-year-old second-round pick without substantial plus traits has to be put here if I'm trying to be honest. Spencer Rattler and Zach Wilson as potential plan B and C doesn't inspire a load of confidence, either. It would have been great if they could have found a veteran to sit behind Shough, waiting to take over if something went wrong. As is, I think the world has seen enough of Rattler and Wilson for one lifetime. Biggest Question: All right, Kellen Moore, let's see it. This offense scored just 28 touchdowns last season and was 27th in offensive DVOA. You're an offensive genius, and an expert playcaller and all that. You've had a year to get settled. You have a first-round wideout and have settled on a quarterback. You've gotta be able to scheme this team out of the basement and into something respectable, or we're going to start to question what exactly it is you do here. Verdict: I'm under 7.5. It's too hard to find double-digit losses for a team that opens with road trips to Detroit and Baltimore and has a rather brutal schedule down the stretch - at Chicago, at Cincinnati, Green Bay, at Carolina, at Tampa Bay. Those two sets could be seven of your 10 losses right there. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.5) These over/unders are just for 2026, right? So the ongoing Vita Vea and Baker Mayfield contract dramas don't impact my opinion very much. I assume Vea will eventually come back into the fold, and Mayfield will play out the last year of his contract, and next year both may well be gone and Tampa Bay will spiral downhill once more. I think that will be a next year Bucs problem. For now, at this moment, the Bucs are the most complete team in the division - damning with faint praise, maybe, but even without franchise legends like Mike Evans or Lavonte David, there's still enough remnants of the last good Bucs teams here to make them a more reliable option than the rest of the division. And they didn't sit on their hands this offseason, either - while they lost a bunch of talent this year, they have made moves to replace them. The Almanac is skeptical of Zac Robinson coming in as the new offensive coordinator, and it's true that his track record isn't the most impressive out there. But, on the plus side, he's not Josh Grizzard. Constantly shuffling through offensive coordinators has to be frustrating, but Grizzard's playcalling was uninspiring, to say the least. Robinson didn't get much out Michael Penix Jr. in Atlanta, but that may say more about Penix (and the statue that once was Kirk Cousins) than it says about Robinson. Robinson has worked with Mayfield before, during Baker's whirlwind stay with the Rams, and Mayfield was very vocal about being happy he came in - more than he was with Grizzard, at any rate. Robinson will have a better receiving corps to work with than he ever had in Atlanta, with a healthy Chris Godwin Jr. and Emeka Egbuka leading the way. He should come in and help get the running backs involved in the passing game more, the play action game working, and generally make the offense look a little more functional. Let's be clear - I think he's a good hire rather than a great one, but I don't think Tampa was going to lure a great offensive coordinator with Todd Bowles on the hot seat. Bowles already lost all of his coordinators as ablative armor this offseason; another losing season and he's toast. If you're a coordinator with dreams of head coaching stardom, that's not necessarily the wagon you want to hitch yourself to. Robinson wasn't the best option available, but he was the best they could get. The top two draft picks of Reuben Bain Jr. - rather shockingly available at Pick 15 - and Josiah Trotter should come in and give a boost to the defense as immediate starters. Bain should be an immediate productive part of a fairly solid pass rushing core including Yaya Diaby and Al-Quadin Muhammad. And while no one can replace the memory of who David was in his prime, the duo of Trotter and Alex Anzalone will probably do a decent job of bettering who David actually was by the end of his career. These feel like the first pieces of a more extensive rebuild to come, but they're pieces that should help this year, too. I'm optimistic about Tampa Bay in the context of the NFC South, rather than the conference as a whole - I, too, think they'll get wiped out by the Seahawks or Rams in January. But I feel fairly confident they'll regain their spot as kings of the NFL's least impressive kingdom. Strongest Position: Offensive line. Tristan Wirfs and Luke Goedeke are among the top tackle pairs in the league, and Cody Mauch is a more than acceptable starter at guard; a good foundation for the Bucs' offensive line even if they don't quite fit the outside zone styles of Robinson. As for the other two starters? It's the NFC South, guys, we can't have everything. Weakest Position: Tight ends. The McVay acolytes have been leading the charge for multi-tight end sets. Don't expect the Buccaneers to be joining that crew anytime soon. Cade Otton scrapes the edge of passable. Behind him, I'm not entirely sure we have evidence Payne Durham and Ko Kieft exist; they may be horror stories told to offensive coordinators to keep them up at night. Biggest Question: Do the contract negotiations tank the season? I think Vea will eventually buckle down and play this year, with his trade demand being more negotiating tactic than anything else. But what if he sticks to his guns and holds out? That's a lot to replace in the middle of your defense, both in terms of talent and just size. And Mayfield has publicly stated that he's disappointed that he didn't get an extension this year; if that seeps into his play, it could be a long season for Tampa - and presumably a short one for Bowles. Verdict: I'm going over 8.5 and being happy with it - hey, we'd dodge another NFC South champion with a losing record. I think that if you can't get to 9-8, you don't deserve an automatic postseason bid - but that's an argument for another time.