2026 Fantasy Football: Matt Harmon shares his favorite pick in each round of a 12-team draft

We're into the thick of draft season and the start of the 2026 NFL regular season is less than a week away. In preparing for your drafts, Yahoo analyst Matt Harmon shares his favorite pick in each round of a 12-team league (15 rounds).

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Round 1 - Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions

If you can land one of the top-two picks and snag Jahmyr Gibbs or Bijan Robinson, you're cooking. However, if you land somewhere in the middle of the first round, I love locking into Amon-Ra St. Brown. The Lions' star ranks first in receptions since he became a full-time starter and third in first downs per route run. He's off to a truly elite start to this NFL career. The Lions offense is already a strong ecosystem but will have to push the pass attempts up this season to counteract a troubling secondary on defense. St. Brown could push for the Triple Crown in 2026.

Round 2 - Derrick Henry, RB, Ravens

I'm not sure I can find any real signals that Derrick Henry suffered any individual decline last year. In fact, while his yards before contact dipped dramatically from 2024 (2.41) to 2025 (1.6) his yards after contact actually went up just a bit from 3.5 to 3.59. That latter figure still ranked fourth-best among qualified rushers. The Ravens didn't add any serious competition for the workhorse ironman. They are betting he'll deliver a massive season again; I am too. Yet, his ADP is outside the top 15 picks. He's an excellent target for receiver-heavy builds this season in a Declan Doyle offense that should suit his game with a heavy diet of outside zone runs.

Round 3 - Javonte Williams, RB, Cowboys

We have a simple equation here for Javonte Williams, the feature back for one of the best offenses in the NFL. Williams was 13th in touches and 15th in yards from scrimmage last season. He was the back of an efficient, well-designed run game. He also played alongside a hideous defense that will have better coaching and personnel in 2026, which should allow him to be in more run-first scripts. With some of the young backs cut from the roster, the runway has been cleared for Williams to maintain his grip on the feature back job. There are more exciting plays in this group of picks but when I get close to the Round 3 and 4 turn, Williams helps fill out a steady running back stable.

Subscribe to Fantasy Ultra to unlock our Strategy Lab, 150+ page Draft Playbook and more!Round 4 - Jaylen Waddle, WR, Broncos

I've talked endlessly about Jaylen Waddle's upside this season as one of the best picks on the receiver board. Waddle's role is about to dramatically improve for the better with more snaps in motion, off-ball and a heavier diet of layup targets. He's also clearly a great receiver, ranking eighth in first downs per route run among WRs with 200-plus routes last season, 12th in yards per route and 11th in successful targets per route. Now, he's about to see both a quarterback upgrade and play for an offense that was fifth in plays per game last year, while his former team was dead last. Getting a wide receiver in this range of the draft who can leap into the top 10 is a potential big win. There are plenty of good candidates; Waddle is my favorite.

Round 5 - Tucker Kraft, TE, Packers

If Tyler Warren makes it to Round 5, he's the best click at the tight end position. I have drawn him frequently in this round but since his ADP is higher, Tucker Kraft makes for a fantastic backup plan. Kraft is reportedly healthy going into the season but you may have to put up with a pitch count for a few weeks. He will be worth the wait. Kraft is one of the best yards-after-catch players at the position and can win downfield. The Packers offense should be pass-happier in 2026 and more built toward what Jordan Love can do as the field general. Once he's fully operational, Kraft will never leave the field.

Round 6 - Rome Odunze, WR, Bears

In the first eight weeks of the season, Rome Odunze was the WR11 in points per game, ranking 19th in yards per route run, 15th in yards per game and trailing only Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr., Davante Adams and George Pickens in touchdown catches. Frankly, I think his film is even better than those numbers suggest; he remains one of the more talented young wideouts in the game, especially if he can clean up some catch-point mistakes from 2025.

Rome Odunze 2025 #ReceptionPerception Profile

Some highlights:
- 76.1% success rate vs. man coverage
- 78% success rate vs. zone
- 80.6% success rate vs. press (93rd percentile)

Already a very talented player, Odunze can easily resume the breakout pace he showed early last... pic.twitter.com/TiMQfQIOAn

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 4, 2026

He popped up on the injury report heading into Week 9 with what ultimately turned out to be a foot/heel injury that ruined his season. The Bears have other good young players in Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III but the passing game should be concentrated around those three. Odunze's ADP shouldn't be as far behind those two sophomore players as it is.

Round 7 - Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots

During their run to the Super Bowl, the Patriots gave TreVeyon Henderson 35 touches to 70 for Rhamondre Stevenson. Their snap rates were 31% to 70.3%, respectively. Through the regular and postseason, Stevenson took his 232 touches for 1,291 yards and Henderson took his 250 for 1,241. There was always a chance this split looks exactly like it did last year, and every report out of camp this summer is that Stevenson remains the lead back. He may not run away with that gig all year but for now, you have a chance to get the top player in a backfield attached to the offense that led the NFL in explosive-play rate last season.

Round 8 - Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jaguars

The apple of the fantasy community's eye has shifted toward Parker Washington, for good reason. Based on offseason reports, I currently have Washington as the WR1 in Jacksonville. However, he remains in the same tier as Brian Thomas Jr. That is incongruous with a two-round gap in their current ADP. Thomas wasn't healthy for almost all of last season after coming into the season with shoulder and wrist issues. As he said back in OTAs, "it doesn't hurt to run anymore." While we can admit there were some issues on film in 2025 he needs to correct, I'm willing to mostly throw out what we saw. He's still a fine upside bet this late in drafts as a near every-down X-receiver attached to a good offensive ecosystem.

Round 9 - Michael Wilson, WR, ARI/Josh Downs, WR, IND

I technically have Michael Wilson ranked higher but I will take Josh Downs every single time when available. There are so many receiver picks in this range that I love but these are two of the best "bet on talent" options available. Wilson is the cheapest member of a Cardinals offense I strongly believe will exceed expectations. He showed last year, when he gets opportunities, he can come through. Wilson can play inside and out and wins on isolated routes from the boundary. His usage in this new offense should suit his skill set. He goes far later than someone who produced at the clip he did last season - regression is more than baked in. I'm admittedly "Cardinals Curious" and think these players could all be undervalued if Mike LaFleur installs a Rams-style offense.

I think we have jumped the shark on discourse around X-receivers and some of the reaction to Mike LaFleur's comments on his top two WRs yesterday got me going on this topic. pic.twitter.com/OIxqTz4X2n

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 3, 2026

Downs is a talented player who was limited by playing time last year. He played on a career-low 55.1% of the Colts snaps and only ran a route on 67% when he was healthy. That won't be the case with the state of their receiver room in the wake of the Michael Pittman Jr. trade. Buy the dip on one of the top separators in the NFL at a depressed ADP. He will play in two-receiver sets ahead of Keenan Allen and could lead the receiver room in catches.

Round 10 - Jordan Mason, RB, Vikings

The more I've looked at this Vikings offense, the more I buy the narrative that the team will really commit to the run game. The Vikings also added some heavy bodies to the mix this year, such as fullback Max Bredeson and power-slot receiver Jauan Jennings. There are more "in the box" blockers than in the previous version of this offense. Quarterback Kyler Murray is only with the team on a one-year deal, and there's been talk about him being heavily used as a designed runner. That can open up lanes for the backs. Jordan Mason is the best bet to severely outkick his ADP of the group, as the competition is an aging Aaron Jones Sr. and a sub-190-pound rookie in Demond Claiborne.

Last year, the Dolphins - where new offensive assistant Frank Smith came from as the offensive coordinator - ranked 12th in zone rushing rate but second in yards per carry on gap runs, as they integrated those in Mike McDaniel's usual bread-and-butter to hunt for explosive plays. In 2025, Mason ranked 19th in success rate on zone runs and second on gap runs (minimum 100 rush attempts), per Fantasy Points Data. There's some "fell-for-it-again" risk with Mason but he's a sensible sleeper bet going outside the top 100 picks.

Round 11 - Jordan Love, QB, GB/Baker Mayfield, QB, TB

Drafting quarterbacks late this season is the move, partly because you can wait all the way to the double-digit rounds and grab viable passers. Since 2023, Baker Mayfield ranks second in touchdown passes and Jordan Love ranks sixth. Mayfield is third in yards and Love is eighth. Yet, no one wants to draft these guys. Even if you just look at raw fantasy points, Mayfield is fourth and Love is ninth.

You can tell a viable story for why this can be another excellent season for both players. Mayfield is healthy entering the year surrounded by talented skill position options and behind a top-five offensive line. Love is taking more ownership of the Packers offense this year and is in control of a unit that will throw more and play faster.

Round 12 - Jalen Coker, WR, Panthers

I don't think the production gap between the Panthers' top two wide receivers will be nearly as wide as current ADP suggests. It was quite close between Tetairoa McMillan (Round 4) and Jalen Coker (Round 12) once the latter got healthy last season.

Panthers WR boxscore from Thanksgiving through their playoff loss.

Tetairoa McMillan and Jalen Coker combined for 43% of the targets. pic.twitter.com/pBMKdJH3VK

- Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) September 3, 2026

That's no shade on McMillan; Coker happens to also be one of the best young receivers in the NFL. If the Panthers' passing game changes course and opens up this season, Coker is going to well outkick his ADP of 133rd overall in Yahoo leagues. Coker is a power-based option who can play in the slot but also won down the field as an X-receiver late in 2025. He will also allow the Panthers to move McMillan around the formation.

Round 13 - Terrance Ferguson, TE, Rams

Among tight ends with over 20 targets last season, Terrance Ferguson led the way with a whopping 18.3 air yards per target. There were only two others over 10: Darren Waller at 11.9 and Mike Gesicki at 10.5. Ferguson has a unique skill set as a vertical option at tight end and is the reason the Rams could live out of 13-personnel because he legitimately stretches defenses. That doesn't happen for most NFL tight ends. So, he will remain on the field consistently for this team. Buzz out of Rams camp holds that he is learning to play some of the real-deal wide receiver positions. If that's the case, there's a lot of upside for a tight end breakout deep into drafts.

Round 14 - Jaylin Noel, WR, Texans

I'm frankly mystified there hasn't been more buzz in the fantasy streets for Jaylin Noel as a deep sleeper this year. He goes undrafted in Yahoo leagues and his consensus ADP on FantasyPros is outside the top 100 wide receivers - that's wild. Noel didn't get a lot of opportunities as a rookie, which is a red flag, but I thought his film was good when he got his shots. He's an explosive player who can win at all three levels and is big enough at 5-foot-11 and 200 pounds to work outside as a Z-receiver.

Jaylin Noel could be in line for the first full-time role of his young career

Primed to make a big impact in Houston pic.twitter.com/NpsQkKSrYg

- Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) August 19, 2026

I'm not sure there's enough to go around for Noel to emerge as an every-week fantasy starter, but this late in drafts, he presents a unique combination of talent and untapped ceiling with a runway of opportunity.

Round 15 - Dontayvion Wicks, WR, Eagles

Dontayvion Wicks is another undrafted special but someone I like to take as an early-season stash to see what happens.

I am an absolute sicko, I know. And a sicko who is ready to get hurt again.

With Makai Lemon likely to start the year slow after an offseason full of hamstring injuries, Wicks should open the season as the WR2 across from DeVonta Smith. Wicks has been frustrating with drops and stagnated growth as a route runner in prior seasons but was a nice, useful reserve for the Packers last season. New Eagles offensive coordinator Sean Mannion worked with him in Green Bay and helped bring him over to the Eagles, who quickly gave him a contract extension. Wicks fits this offense well and has a chance to hold onto a big role if he can capitalize on a favorable early-season schedule with matchups against the Commanders, Titans and Bears.