Patriots vs Seahawks Prediction, Picks & Early Odds for Wednesday’s Season Opener
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The NFL goes full circle of life, starting the new 2026 season the same way it ended the previous one.
The defending champion Seattle Seahawks host the New England Patriots in a Super Bowl rematch on Wednesday night, with the Seahawks set as 3.5-point favorites.
That spread is one point slimmer than the closing neutral-site line for Super Bowl LX, in which Seattle crushed New England 29-13 behind a dominant defensive performance.
A lot has changed since February and both teams look a little different heading into NFL Opening Night.
Here are my NFL picks and early Patriots vs. Seahawks predictions on Sept. 9.
| Pick |  ProbabilityE |
|---|---|
| Seattle -3.5 | 52% |
| Under 44.5 | 54% |
Percentages courtesy ofKalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Early Patriots vs Seahawks spread pick: Seahawks -3.5Kalshi probability: 52%
As long as Mike Macdonald is the head coach, the Seattle Seahawks have an elite defense. And defense goes a long way early in the schedule.
That stop unit was the reason why the Lombardi Trophy resides in the Pacific Northwest, collecting six sacks on New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye in the Big Game.
That pass rush, which ranked among the best in pressure rate despite blitzing at one of the lowest clips, challenges the Patriots protection which is running low on bodies.
New England suffered a shot to its offensive line depth with injuries to backups this summer and is scrambling in the weeks before the season to plug any roster holes. The starting o-line worked solely in joint practices and had trouble with Philly's pass rush in those scrimmages.
That half-point hook on the field goal is nasty, but we have seen Big Game losers suffer a Super Bowl hangover - at least in Week 1. Teams that came up short in the championship are just 7-19 ATS in Week 1 of the following season since 2000.
If you're wary of that spread, Seattle to win outright is trading at 65%.
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Early Patriots vs Seahawks total pick: Under 44.5
Kalshi probability: 54%
As good as the Seahawks stop unit is, the Patriots defense is right there with them.
New England has a stellar secondary that isn't giving up much over the top and when healthy, this front seven is one of the better run stop units in the land.
Seattle had success grinding out gains on the ground in the Super Bowl, but Kenneth Walker III is gone and Zach Charbonnet is still sidelined after a knee injury late last season. That leaves RBsJadarian Price and George Holani to shoulder the rushing load.
Also absent from Seattle is offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who took the coaching gig in Las Vegas. New OC Brian Fleury isn't trying to reinvent the wheel with his offense but if the run game can't get going, Sam Darnold's success out of play action takes a hit. He was third among all QBs in PA passing yards in 2025.
Patriots vs Seahawks oddsFor help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see ourodds calculator.
- Patriots vs Seahawks spread: Seahawks -3.5
- Patriots vs Seahawks outright:Patriots 39%, Seahawks 61%
- Patriots vs Seahawks Over/Under: 44.5
- Patriots vs Seahawks matchup
- Date: Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Seattle, Wash.
- Venue: Lumen Field
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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