NFL Week 1 betting: 5 biggest storylines, including big Chargers line and many Bears bets

Finally, the NFL season is upon us.

The last time we had a game that mattered, the Seattle Seahawks clobbered the New England Patriots 29-13 in Super Bowl 60 in a game never felt that close. This regular season kicks off Thursday with the Patriots at the Seahawks, and Seattle is a 3.5-point favorite.

Here are five betting storylines to keep an eye on for Week 1 of the NFL season:

Chargers are a rare Week 1 favorite

You don't see many double-digit favorites in Week 1.

The last time it happened was 2012, when the Texans were a 13.5-point favorite over the Dolphins according to Stathead. Because lines change and different books close at different numbers there are some discrepancies to that statistic: In 2016 the Seahawks were marked as a 10.5-point favorite over Miami in Week 1, and in the 2019 opener the Eagles were listed as a 10.5-point favorite over Washington, both according to Pro Football Reference.

Regardless of whether those games officially closed at double digits or not, seeing a favorite of 10 points in Week 1 doesn't happen often. And the Chargers are -10 or -10.5 at some books over the Cardinals (though they've come down to 9.5 at others). That's the reason the Chargers are the most popular pick for Week 1 at Yahoo Survival Football, at a little more than 33%.

Justin Herbert and the Chargers begin the season as big favorites over the Cardinals. (AP Photo/Kevork Djansezian)ASSOCIATED PRESSSeahawks a shorter favorite for rematch

The last time we saw the Seahawks play the Patriots, Seattle was a 4.5-point favorite in the Super Bowl. The Seahawks covered easily, and it was obviously on a neutral field. Months later, despite Wednesday's opener being in the fantastic home-field advantage at Seattle, the spread is down a point to Seahawks -3.5 (and even -3 at some books). That doesn't make much sense.

The Patriots are better, especially at receiver, and the Seahawks lost some players like running back Kenneth Walker III, who was Super Bowl MVP. It still seems odd the line isn't at least what it was for the Super Bowl, especially with New England running back TreVeyon Henderson potentially out with an ankle injury. We'll see if the Patriots can be more competitive in the rematch. Seattle is getting 59% of the bets and money, according to BetMGM.

Handful of home underdogs

A few teams aren't getting a lot of respect for their opening game. There are five teams that are home underdogs in Week 1:

Panthers (+3) vs. Bears

Colts (+3.5) vs. Ravens

Texans (+1.5) vs. Bills

Vikings (+1.5) vs. Packers

Giants (+1.5) vs. Cowboys

The biggest home underdog is the Colts, which is showing a lot of faith in the Ravens. Baltimore, with Lamar Jackson back and healthy, are third behind the Rams and Bills in Super Bowl odds. The line practically dismisses that the Colts were pretty good last season before Daniel Jones got injured, and Jones will be back for Week 1.

Bears are a massive consensus among bettors

One of those road favorites is getting just about all of the bets for their Week 1 matchup: Everyone seems to love the Bears at -3 over the Panthers.

Chicago is getting an overwhelming 93% of the bets and 91% of the money at BetMGM. That's one of the biggest figures we'll see all NFL season. The Panthers have some injury issues and they're due to regress this season after a fluky NFC South championship with an 8-9 record last season. Still, it's stunning to see any NFL team getting more than 90% of the action on the spread.

Bet Chicago Bears -3 right now at sportsbooks

Falcons begin season with Tua Tagovailoa at QB

It's tough to begin the season without your preferred quarterback, but that's the conundrum for the Atlanta Falcons.

Michael Penix Jr. isn't ready and Tagovailoa, who didn't look great in the preseason, will get the start. Because Penix was never a sure thing to be back for the opener off of ACL surgery, the line didn't move much. The Steelers were -3 for most of the offseason and that ticked up to -3.5 recently. That's not a big surprise, considering oddsmakers had the Falcons with the NFL's lowest difference between starter and backup quarterback when it comes to the point spread according to the annual report from Yahoo Sports' Ben Fawkes. It's still less than ideal for the Falcons.