NFL Moneyline Picks for Every Week 1 Game
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The NFL is officially back, and there's no better time of year. The fall air is here, the couch is calling, and it's time to sweat out some bets on Sunday (and Thursday... and Wednesday).
Spearheading myNFL moneyline picksarethe Dallas Cowboys, who I'm backing to roll out of MetLife Stadium with a win on Sunday night.
After opening with a nail-biting win on Wednesday thanks to Seattle's late surge, let's dive right into the rest of my Week 1 NFL picks.
Last season's record: 159-97 for -1.2 units
NFL moneyline picks for Week 1For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see ourodds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
 Patriots vs  Seahawks | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/sea.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Seahawks" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (62%)/span | |
 49ers vs  Rams | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/sf.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="49ers" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (36%)/span | |
 Buccaneers vs  Bengals | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/cin.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Bengals" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (66%)/span | |
 Saints vs  Lions | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/det.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Lions" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (75%)/span | |
 Jets vs  Titans | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/nyj.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Jets" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (48%)/span | |
 Ravens vs  Colts | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/ind.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Colts" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (38%)/span | |
 Falcons vs  Steelers | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/pit.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Steelers" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;"(63%)/span | |
 Bears vs  Panthers | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/chi.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Bears" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (60%)/span | |
 Browns vs  Jaguars | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/jac.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Jaguars" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (79%)/span | |
 Bills vs  Texans | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/hou.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Texans" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (50%)/span | |
 Dolphins vs  Raiders | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/lv.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Raiders" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (63%)/span | |
 Packers vs  Vikings | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/min.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Vikings" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (54%)/span | |
 Commanders vs  Eagles | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/phi.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Eagles" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (68%)/span | |
 Cardinals vs  Chargers | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/lac.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Chargers" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (82%)/span | |
 Cowboys vs  Giants | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/dal.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Cowboys" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (60%)/span | |
 Broncos vs  Chiefs | span data-sheets-root="1"img loading="lazy" src="https://img.covers.com/covers/data/svg_logos/nfl/den.svg?width=25&height=25" alt="Broncos" width="25" height="25" style="font-weight: bold;" (44%)/span |
Percentages courtesy ofKalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert Week 1 NFL moneyline picksPatriots vs. Seahawks:Seahawks (62%)Seattle's defense held New England to just 13 points in last year's Super Bowl, and Cover 6 is the name of the game when it comes to disrupting Drake Maye's rhythm, as seen by his god-awful postseason stats.
It may take a while for new Seahawks OC Brian Fleury to hit a groove, but he won't have to call a perfect game to take down New England.
If a Diana Russini-related piece drops on gameday, all the better for Seattle's odds.
Read Jason Logan's fullPatriots vs. Seahawks predictions.
49ers vs. Rams:49ers (36%)Los Angeles may be the best team in the NFL on paper, but the last time we saw this much preseason hype surrounding a team, the 2011 Eagles flamed out and finished 8-8.
Kyle Shanahan has always played his buddy Sean McVay tough, and I can't look past the eerily different travel schedules that the 49ers and Rams have opted for.
I'm siding with the club that's been in Australia for a calendar week rather than the one flying in 24 hours before kickoff.
Read Joe Osborne's full49ers vs. Rams predictions.
Buccaneers vs. Bengals:Bengals (66%)We all know how lethal a healthy Joe Burrow can be with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins out wide, and finally, the cavalry is coming on defense.
After adding Dexter Lawrence, Boye Mafe, and Jonathan Allen this offseason, along with drafting edge rusher Cashius Howell, the Bengals' front four will be bringing plenty of heat.
With Tampa bringing in a new OC and future Hall of Famer Mike Evans in the process, I like Cincy to come out firing.
Saints vs. Lions:Lions (75%)For the record, the Saints are my pick to win the NFC South, but a Week 1 matchup in Detroit is a tough spot.
This is a make-or-break year for Dan Campbell, and the Lions' loaded offense should have no problem one-upping a NOLA unit starting the season without both Alvin Kamara and Jordyn Tyson.
Jets vs. Titans:Jets (48%)Cam Ward's preseason struggles can't go unnoticed, and the Jets had a solid offseason, bringing in veteran defensive talent like Minkah Fitzpatrick and Demario Davis while drafting pass rusher David Bailey.
With fellow draft picks Kenyon Sadiq Jr. and Omar Cooper Jr. set to carve out nice roles in the offense alongside Geno Smith and Garrett Wilson, give me the Jets to start 2026 on a high note.
Ravens vs. Colts:Colts (38%)As a Colts fan, I'm going to savor the brief window of seeing Sauce Gardner and Charvarius Ward on the field together before the injury gods inevitably send one (or both) to IR.
The Ravens should be excellent under Jesse Minter in the long run, but losing All-Pro center Tyler Linderbaum could create some early hiccups for their offense.
Give me Indy to pull off the home upset at Lucas Oil Stadium. For the Shoe!
Falcons vs. Steelers:Steelers (63%)Atlanta went full 28-3 mode" this offseason, losing both Jalon Walker and James Pearce Jr. to injury and suspension.
Add in a messy QB battle between Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr., and the Falcons dominated my Twitter FYP for all the wrong reasons.
More continuity around Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers in Year 2 will give them a leg up at home.
Bears vs. Panthers:Bears (60%)The Panthers came back down to earth in the second half of last season, going just 3-5 SU over their final eight games. Now, they enter Week 1 with an already banged-up offensive line.
Ben Johnson will be looking for Caleb Williams and the Bears to make an early statement in the NFC, and Chicago will do just that in Charlotte.
More Covers NFL trading toolsBrowns vs. Jaguars:Jaguars (79%)If you listen to Jared Verse in interviews, he'll make you believe for a second that the Browns are a real threat.
As much as I admire the guy's positivity, you're only as good as your QB in the NFL in 2026.
Deshaun Watson as the starter? Really?
Looking to defend their AFC South crown, the Jags are set to benefit from some good old-fashioned heat and humidity in the Sunshine State.
Bills vs. Texans:Texans (50%)While Buffalo picked up disgruntled WR D.J. Moore and essentially swapped out an over-the-hill Joey Bosa for a similarly aged Bradley Chubb, Houston completely upgraded its offensive line without losing any key pieces from last year's elite defensive unit.
Houston has kept Josh Allen to fewer than 200 passing yards in each of his last two games against the Texans, and they prevailed in both. Expect more of the same in Week 1.
Dolphins vs. Raiders:Raiders (63%)As risky as it may seem, I'd seriously consider playing Las Vegas in your Survivor Pool this week.
Klint Kubiak isn't messing around when it comes to revamping the Raiders' identity, while the Dolphins are fielding the worst roster in the entire league.
The Raiders won't be a playoff team this year, but they'll be much more competitive and prevail in the Black Hole on Sunday.
Packers vs. Vikings:Vikings (54%)Under Kevin O'Connell's tutelage, I'm bullish on Kyler Murray making early waves in the Comeback Player of the Year odds, especially with Green Bay's defense set to be without Micah Parsons to begin the season.
Minnesota has won four of its last five home matchups against the Packers, while O'Connell is 3-1 straight-up in Week 1 as Vikings head coach.
SKOL!
Commanders vs. Eagles:Eagles (68%)Washington's offensive line is an unmitigated disaster, and at this point, the Eagles losing A.J. Brown feels more like an addition than a subtraction for the psyche of Jalen Hurts and the Philly offense.
The Eagles have beaten this Commanders team by double digits in two of their last three meetings, with the lone outlier coming in a meaningless Week 18 QB duel between Tanner McKee and Josh Johnson.
Philly secures the dub at the Linc.
Cardinals vs. Chargers:Chargers (82%)Jim Harbaugh takes care of business against bad teams, and Geoff Clark detailed that in his Cardinals vs. Chargers early leans:
Since 2024, LAC is 12-2 straight-up and 11-3 against the spread vs. teams with a 40% winning rate or worse."
Rookie running back Jeremiah Love should make Arizona entertaining, but beyond that,the Cardinals remain a mess on defense with Jacoby Brissett as their bridge QB.
Cowboys vs. Giants:Cowboys (60%)John Harbaugh's cringey opening team-meeting speech, Cam Skattebo's offseason antics, and the general circus surrounding the Giants have me fading Big Blue out of the gate.
There's plenty of noise around this team and an abundance of talent at the skill positions, but losing DT Dexter Lawrence II is an underrated blow. Meanwhile, Dallas has quietly avoided the Jerry Jones-induced drama that has defined so much of their recent offseasons.
Dallas is 9-1 SU over its last 10 head-to-head matchups against the G-Men, and I like the Cowboys to stand tall on Sunday night.
Broncos vs. Chiefs:Broncos (44%)Eric Bieniemy will likely take a conservative approach, leaning heavily on Kenneth Walker III and the Chiefs' ground game as Patrick Mahomes works his way back into form.
The problem? Denver's defense was one of the best in football against the run last season, ranking second overall while allowing just 91.1 rushing yards per game and 3.87 yards per carry.
On the other side, Denver's offense has added another explosive weapon in Jaylen Waddle, giving Bo Nix a true WR1 and Sean Payton another weapon to scheme with.
The wrong team is favored on MNF.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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