On Paper: Lions vs. Saints preview, prediction

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - DECEMBER 03: Jared Goff #16 of the Detroit Lions throws a pass in the first quarter against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome on December 03, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. (Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images) | Getty Images

Welcome back to another season of On Paper, my statistical-heavy Detroit Lions preview that attempts to be as objective as possible.

For those new to On Paper, a brief explanation.

At the heart of On Paper are eight charts that detail each team's primary units (pass offense, run offense, pass defense, run defense). Those charts are filled with weekly performances that compare it to the opponent's average. This provides proper context to show that holding the Lions passing offense to 120 yards is much different than holding the Jets to that yardage. Cells that are green indicate a better than average performance, yellow is within 5% of averages, and red means you stunk that week.

Then we compare the units that face off. If there's one thing about NFL previews that enrages me, it's when analysts compare units (ie: who has the better offense, defense, QB?). That doesn't matter. The quarterbacks don't ever share the field. Instead, it matters how the Lions pass offense matches with the opponent's pass defense. So after throwing a bunch of stats at you, I provide a key matchup and my overall thought on who has the advantage in each matchup-which is graded on a 1-5 scale based on how big the advantage is, how important I believe that matchup is to the overall outcome, and just my overall confidence. This is the only part that is a bit subjective.

At the end, I add up all the advantages, see who has the edge, and provide a final score prediction. In the comments, be sure to give your score prediction. The closest to the actual score will get a shout out in next week's On Paper.

Now, let's get to it.

Lions pass offense (6th in DVOA in 2025) vs. Saints pass defense (19th)

Despite a running game that fell apart, significant issues on the offensive line, and an offensive coordinator that just didn't fit, Jared Goff and the Lions passing offense remained pretty efficient all season. The 2025 season will always be a great counter-example to those who claim Goff needs everything to be perfect around him to be successful.

In 2025, the Lions and Goff finished:

• 4th in yards per attempt (7.4)
• 3rd in passer rating (103.6)
• 7th in dropback EPA (0.167)
• 9th in dropback success rate (48.5%)

By nearly every metric, this was a top-10 passing offense.

So what has changed this year? Well, in terms of weapons, nothing is really all that different. Sam LaPorta is healthier, Isaac TeSlaa is a year older, and that's about it.

But the offensive line has been completely revamped. Penei Sewell went from right to left tackle. Rookie Blake Miller takes his spot on the right. Cade Mays Juice Scruggs takes over at center for Graham Glasgow. And Ben Bartch and Christian Mahogany are still battling for the left guard position. Second-year right guard Tate Ratledge? You just stay there and keep being you.

Pass protection was an issue last year. Despite Goff being one of the quickest quarterbacks in time-to-throw (fifth), he also faced the 14th-highest pressure rate, and took a career-high 38 sacks (eighth among all NFL quarterbacks). The Lions also ranked 31st in ESPN's pass block win rate and 24th in PFF pass blocking grade.

Are the Lions decidedly better on the offensive line in 2026? It's impossible to know right now, but I'm not entirely optimistic it will look better to start the year given just how many moving parts there are. So some protection issues should be expected early, but Goff should still be able to orchestrate at a top-10 level of efficiency.

The Saints' pass defense wasn't good last year, but as you can see from the chart, it got significantly better as the season went on. Part of that is due to playing ONLY terrible passing offenses in their final eight games, but it's reasonable to think they also improved as a unit down the stretch.

If you didn't pay attention to the quality of their opponents, the difference between the first and second half of the season would be incredibly stark:

Weeks 1-9

• 29th in passer rating allowed (107.2)
• 26th in dropback EPA
• 27th in dropback success rate

Week 10-18

• 7th in passer rating allowed (74.7)
• 5th in dropback EPA
• 1st in dropback success rate

Those are drastic swings and shouldn't be ignored completely. It's very normal for a team to start figuring things out in Year 1 toward the end of the season. But... also... just look at those offenses. They didn't face a single team who averaged a passer rating above 90 in their final eight games.

That makes trying to predict how 2026 will go difficult. The Saints didn't make a ton of changes on defense this offseason. They lost linebacker Demario Davis but replaced him with a far younger Kaden Ellis. They also bolstered the interior of their defensive line with second-round pick Christen Miller... but they lost Brian Bresee to a season-ending injury and Cam Jordan won't play this week.

Last year, the Saints were pretty inconsistent as a pass rushing team. They ranked 24th in pressure rate (31.9%), 23rd in PFF pass rushing grade (66.6), and 22nd in ESPN pass rush win rate (35%), but they still produced the 10th-most sacks.

Coverage was a different story. Kool-Aid McKinstry had a bit of a breakout year (17 passes defended, 3 INTs), and the Saints sport a trust safety duo in Justin Reid (66.7 PFF grade last year) and Julian Blackmon (82.4).

Player to watch: Chase Young vs. Blake Miller. Right, I forgot about Young. Despite playing just 12 games, he produced 49 pressures and 10.0 sacks. Last year, he almost played exclusively opposite the left tackle (529 snaps there vs. just 13 on the right), but I wouldn't be surprised to see New Orleans change up strategy when the options are Penei Sewell or a rookie in his first NFL game.

Advantage: Lions +1. I'm probably not going to move far from +1s early in the season with very little relevant data to go off of. However, I can feel pretty confident in Detroit here, because they've been doing it longer and more consistently, and I'm still not sure who the Saints are just because they played a bunch of terrible offenses to finish 2025.

Lions run offense (10th) vs. Saints run defense (8th)

After some inconsistent-but occasionally great-performances early in the season, Detroit's run offense absolutely collapsed down the stretch, and it was a big part of their downfall-losing four of their last six games.

The season-long stats are not encouraging. Detroit ranked just:

• 9th in yards per carry (4.6)
• 23rd in rush EPA (-0.037)
• 16th in rushing success rate (41.0%)

The only thing that kept Detroit's stats even mildly afloat were the explosive runs from Jahmyr Gibbs. He ranked ninth in 10+ yard rushes (27), third in 20+ yard rushes (10), and t-second in 30+ yard rushes (six).

The Lions offensive line ranked 13th in PFF run grade, 20th in run block win rate, and 20th in adjusted line yards.

There is hope the offensive line changes and a switch to a more innovative offensive coordinator will help out the run game this year, but that remains a theory, not a fact.

The Saints gave up a lot of rushing yardage last year (2050, 14th most), but that was largely a result of always trailing in games and facing the third most rushing attempts in the league. On a per-play, basis, they were actually quite sound. In 2025, they ranked:

• Eighth in yards per carry allowed (4.0)
• 2nd in rush EPA (-0.136)
• 9th in rush success rate (39.0%)

That's the bad news for Detroit. The good news? Two of their best run defenders from last year will not be playing in this game. Demario Davis-their leader and best linebacker who posted an 89.3 run defense grade-left in free agency. And veteran defensive lineman (82.1 grade) Cam Jordan is out with an injury. Kaden Ellis, the linebacker they added this offseason, doesn't bring much in terms of run defense.

So is it reasonable to expect a step back this season? Yeah, possibly. But given this is also Year 2 under a new defense, I find it hard to believe they'll significantly regress.

Player to watch: Jonas Sanker. The Saints nickel defender could be a liability in coverage, but he's excellent as a run defender. Last year, he often played in the box as a safety, and he produced an impressive 73.7 run defense grade.

Advantage: Saints +1. I imagine I'll get some pushback here from Lions fans, but I expect some issues on the offensive line early with a backup center, rookie right tackle, and a potential guard rotation at left guard. While the Saints don't possess an extremely stout defensive interior, their unit plays well as a whole, including defensive backs who get their nose dirty.

Saints pass offense (27th) vs. Lions pass defense (6th)

Important in this timeline is that Tyler Shough took over in Game 8 against the Buccaneers.

Shough impressed the Saints enough after taking over midway through the year that he became the unquestioned starter for the 2026 season. The advanced stats aren't as convinced, though. From Week 8 on, Shough ranked:

• 15th in yards per attempt (7.3)
• 16th in passer rating (91.9)
• 27th in dropback EPA (-0.169)
• 23rd in success rate (44.3%)

It's not exactly mind-blowing, but it's clearly an upgrade over what was happening in New Orleans before. The reason why there's such a dramatic fall off when it comes to the dropback stats is that it includes sacks, and Shough took a ridiculous amount of them. His 2.8 sacks per game ranked fifth-highest in the NFL despite the fact that he only faced a 31.6% pressure rate (11th lowest).

This offseason, the Saints attempted to give Shough more weapons with three drafted wide receivers, the addition of tight end Noah Fant, and even the signing of running back Travis Etienne (at least 35 catches each NFL season). But with first-round pick Jordan Tyson sidelined to start the year, Shough will have an extremely young receiving corps and may have to rely on the security blankets of Chris Olave (100 catches, 1,163 yards last year) and tight end Juwan Johnson (77 catches, 889 yards).

It's probably hard to believe that Detroit's passing defense was considered relatively good last year. I'll admit the sixth DVOA ranking is just flat-out wrong, but there are some other positive signs that you may have overlooked.

Last year, Detroit ranked:

• 24th in yards per attempt (7.3)
• 19th in passer rating (92.5)
• 14th in dropback EPA (0.040)
• 9th in dropback success rate (43.5%)

When you see a success rate that high, and all of the other stats are bad or mediocre, it means one things: explosive plays. Detroit gave up boatloads of them. The Lions allowed the fifth-most passing plays of 20+ yards and the most 30+ yard passing plays.

That has been a huge focus this offseason for Detroit, and it may not be a big of a problem this week. Last year, the Saints produced just 33 passing plays of 20+ yards (31st) and 14 of 30+ yards (t-26th).

Detroit's secondary is not good on paper, but it may somehow actually be improved from last year. D.J. Reed, Terrion Arnold, Brian Branch, and Kerby Joseph missed so much of last year, that it left Detroit scrambling. Well, now Reed is healthy and the Lions invested in veteran safeties to help out not having Branch and Joseph.

However, the real improvement happened up front, where the Lions are both healthier (Alim McNeill, Levi Onwuzurike) and deeper (Tyler Lacy, Derrick Moore, Ahmed Hassanein). Whether that results in more and quicker pressure? We'll see.

Player to watch: Aidan Hutchinson. Saints left tackle Kelvin Banks had an extremely solid rookie season, and he's likely to be even better in Year 2. But Hutchinson could cause some issues for right tackle Taliese Fuaga, who finished 2025 just 41st out of 58 qualifying tackles in pass blocking grade (66.2).

Advantage: Lions +1. I think some of the Shough hype is a bit premature, but it's okay to be optimistic about his long-term future, and it's reasonable to think he'll take a Year 2 jump with some offensive scheme consistency. But his weapons are young, and Detroit has some real firepower up front. Throw in a raucous Ford Field, and I think it'll be a tough environment for Shough.

Saint run offense (30th) vs. Lions run defense (19th)

The Saints running game was one of the worst in the league last year, arguably a bottom-three unit. They ranked:

• 31st in yards per carry (3.7)
• 31st in rush EPA (-0.155)
• 29th in rush success rate (36.6%)

But this is also where the Saints put most of their offseason investments towards. They added Etienne and starting guard David Edwards in free agency. Additionally, the Saints dealt with a lot of offensive line injuries last year-ranking 10th in most adjusted games lost on the offensive line. Health alone could improve the unit.

It's a good offseason strategy to attack the team's biggest weakness, but it's hard to know how much a team can fix in one year. I remain pretty skeptical, even though it should obviously look better than last year's disaster.

Detroit's run defense began so promisingly. Through the first nine weeks, it looked like they were going to be their dominating selves yet again. However, everything collapsed toward the end of last year, and the Rams, Steelers, and Vikings all ran over them in ways we haven't seen in years. In the end, Detroit finished:

• 21st in yards per carry allowed (4.4)
• 23rd in rush EPA allowed (-0.037)
• 16th in rushing success rate (41.0%)

At best, they were average for the season.

How did they improve in 2026? The additions and health up front should certainly help, even if the focus was more on pass rush. They did lose Alex Anzalone, though, and there are certainly questions about whether a combination of Derrick Barnes, Malcolm Rodriguez, and Devin White can make up what was lost there.

The best chance for improvement in 2026 is simply another year in this defense with a healthy front seven, and this team's deep history of being solid against the run. I have moderate confidence they'll improve this year, but it is a bit of an overlooked concern, too.

Player to watch: Etienne. I didn't talk much about what he brings to the offense, but it's worth noting he was outside of the top 30 in both EPA and rushing success rate with the Jaguars last year. Will he thrive behind what should be a much better Saints offensive line? It's still hard to find backs with his size and speed, so I'm not doubting it.

Advantage: Draw. I have severe questions about both sides of the matchup here, and therefore no strong feeling on how it looks in Week 1.

This week's prediction:

After finishing a terrible 7-10 last year with my predictions, I'm hoping to turn things around this year. But these early-season predictions are always the hardest.

In the end, I gave the Lions a +1 advantage, which properly matches my overall confidence in this game. It's impossible to ignore that all signs point to the Saints finding some improvement this year. But they're still figuring things out on offense, and have to answer some key losses in free agency (and injury) on defense.

The Lions, meanwhile, have to prove their arrow isn't pointing down. I'm not convinced the Lions offense will be any better until I see the offensive line clicking-but it likely won't be worse. And while I'm optimistic about the defense, the late-season trends last year were concerning.

Overall, I expect sloppy, relatively low-scoring football as both teams try to find their identity. Lions 23, Saints 20.