First NFL Coach Fired Odds: Aaron Glenn Starts the Season on the Hot Seat
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Aaron Glenn enters 2026 as a marked man.
The New York Jets head coach is a clear-cut No. 1 choice in thefirst NFL coach fired odds (62% at Kalshi)over Dan Campbell (40%) of the Detroit Lions and Todd Bowles (20%) of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to begin the 2026 season.
Let's take a look at the latest next NFL coach out odds ahead of Week 1 and see where the value lies.
Next NFL coach fired odds| Name |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Aaron Glenn | 62% |
 Dan Campbell | 40% |
 Todd Bowles | 20% |
 Dan Quinn | 10% |
 Mike McCarthy | 10% |
Odds as of 9-10 for the next NFL head coach to be fired, resign, or leave before Feb. 15, 2027. For help understanding Kalshiprobabilities, see ourodds calculator.
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Next NFL coach fired favorites Aaron Glenn (62%)- Record with team: 3-14 | Playoff record: 0-0
New York Jets playoff odds are in the news, butnot for the best of reasons.
"Gang Green" is once again expected to be a disgrace, with the decaying carcass of Geno Smith lining up under center in a reunion nobody wanted, save for fans of schadenfreude. Traders at Kalshi expect Aaron Glenn to answer for this likely upcoming failure with his job.
But are Kalshi users jumping the gun?
Glenn has only been patrolling the Jets' sidelines for one season, albeit it was a bad one (3-14). While his contentious relationship with the press will win him no favors, it should be noted that only three of the 22 Jets head coaches have left in mid-season, with Robert Salah (2024) being the only one since 1976.
Dan Campbell (40%)- Record with team: 48-36-1 | Playoff record: 2-2
Dan Campbell has done an incredible job turning the Detroit Lions from a laughingstock into a perennial playoff contender, but has he worn out his welcome?
The Lions cratered from 15-2 to 2024 to 9-8 last season. The problem areas that plagued them in 2025 are back with a vengeance now, with four of their Top 5 secondary starters either gone or due to miss significant time. Brian Branch (Achilles) and Kerby Joseph (back) are on the PUP list, while Terrion Arnold was released.
Pass rush depth behind Aidan Hutchinson remains a concern.
Covers NFL trading tools Todd Bowles (20%)- Record with team: 35-33 | Playoff record: 1-3
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dealt with plenty of injuries last year, and more than their fair share of offseason turmoil with Baker Mayfield and Vita Vea.
But all of that is in the past, and the Bucs have a very winnable NFC South in front of them. That means the pressure could be turned up on Todd Bowles very quickly if Tampa stumbles out of the gate.
The Bucs canned five assistants in the offseason, including offensive coordinator Josh Grizzard. There is nowhere to hide for Bowles now.
Next NFL coach fired predictionZac Taylor and the Cincinnati Bengals made it to the Super Bowl in 2022 in a remarkable turnaround following a four-win season, and went back to the AFC Championship Game in 2023. Since then, the Bengals have missed the playoffs in three straight campaigns.
Cincinnati stumbled to a 6-11 season in 2025, and Joe Burrow isn't getting any younger. I can't imagine Taylor's leash is very long going into 2026, and the Bengals open their season with no easy Ws, playing the Bucs, Texans, Steelers, and Jaguars.
Pick: Zac Taylor to be next NFL coach fired (3% at Kalshi)
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