NFL 2026 Week 1 Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em: Stack Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey

Week 1 is here and that means it's time for our first round of lineup decisions.

Quarterback

Start: Justin Herbert, Chargers

The Chargers are projected to run up the score this week with an implied team total-the amount of points Vegas expects them to score-of 28.5. They are one of three teams with an implied total over 26. The Cardinals ranked 26th in EPA per dropback allowed last year and did not make any big moves on defense in free agency or the draft. Justin Herbert and the Chargers are going to demolish them this week.

Start: Jared Goff, Lions

Detroit is the only other team with an implied total north of 28 points. This is, in part, because they are playing at home. Jared Goff famously has stark home/road splits. He brought his home and away scores closer than ever last year and still tacked on an additional 3.6 points at Ford Field. At home with a lofty projection, Goff is a top-10 fantasy option to start the year.

Sit: Caleb Williams, Bears

From a fantasy perspective, one of Caleb Williams' biggest draws last year was simply pass volume. He ranked fifth in overall attempts. In a low-wattage game versus Carolina, he shouldn't be asked to throw nearly as much. Carolina faced a bottom-10 pass rate over expected last year and that's the type of game Chicago is willing to lean into. The Bears logged a -3.3 percent PROE, putting them outside the top 20 teams in pass rate versus expectation.

Chicago played with pace in neutral situations, but Panthers opponents rarely felt the need to run up-tempo. Carolina faced the 10th-slowest pace in neutral game scripts. This game looks like any other Panthers game to me: a low-scoring slog.

Sit: C.J. Stroud, Texans

Vegas simply doesn't expect the road-tripping Texans to put up that many points. Among many others, the Raiders, Colts, and Panthers are all projected to outscore them. The Bills were a top-10 pass defense last year by both fantasy points allowed and EPA per play allowed. Even the likely negative game script won't fuel Stroud to a volume-laden day. Houston ranked 20th in pass rate when trailing last year.

RotoPat's Week 1 Fantasy Football RankingsRanking and evaluating all of Week 1's top plays at quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end, kicker and defense.

• Patrick Daugherty,

Running Back

Start: Rico Dowdle, Panthers

As I said on the Rotoworld Football Show, if you aren't starting Dowdle as a 4.5-point favorite at likely, why did you draft him?

Atlanta ranked 23rd in yards after contact per attempt allowed and 26th in EPA per rush attempt allowed last year. Dowdle was 14th in yards after contact per carry in 2025. Even as part of a committee with Jaylen Warren, Week 1 is a great spot for Dowdle.

Start: Bhayshul Tuten, Jaguars

Cleveland was the ultimate run-funnel last year. They were an elite unit against the pass and average against the run. Their offense was also terrible, so opposing teams never felt the need to throw against them. Most of those factors should hold steady this year, though their pass-rush-and ground defense to a lesser degree-will suffer without Myles Garrett. The Jags are the second-biggest favorites of the week, with sportsbooks projecting them to win by 8.5 points. Both Bhayshul Tuten and Chris Rodriguez are set up to see plenty of carries.

Sit: Jonathon Brooks, Panthers

As a Jonathon Brooks backer, let's give him a week before getting him into our lineups. Chuba Hubbard is not on the injury report, while Brooks remains limited with a groin issue that cost him time at the end of training camp. He likely begins the season as a complement to Hubbard, with the latter also playing on passing downs because of his competence in pass protection.

Sit: RJ Harvey, Broncos

Harvey was almost useless for fantasy when JK Dobbins was healthy last year. He averaged fewer than 10 PPR points per game on a paltry five carries per week.

Dobbins also out-carried him at the goal line 7-3 before going down with a season-ending injury. Not only is Dobbins back on a two-year, $16 million contract, but the team also drafted Jonah Coleman and hyped him up for much of the summer. This is a situation where I'm waiting for a week of data before getting anyone in my fantasy lineups.

Wide Receiver

Start: Chris Godwin, Buccaneers

There's one true shootout on the slate this week: Bengals vs. Bucs. The game has a 50.5-point total. Unlike Lions vs. Saints, the second-highest total of the week, the spread is relatively close at 3.5. Godwin was a disaster last year, but two-thirds of his games came when Baker Mayfield was in the midst of a meltdown. In 2024, when Mayfield was healthy and playing well, Godwin averaged over 80 yards per week. He was the WR2 by points per game. Godwin might just be washed, but if he isn't, this is a great spot for him to return to form.

Start: Ladd McConkey, Chargers

To no one's surprise, if we're starting Justin Herbert this week, we're jamming Ladd McConkey into our lineups. The Cardinals are a particularly good matchup for slot receivers. They were top-10 in targets, catches, and yards allowed to the slot last year. McConkey ran 63 percent of his routes from the slot in 2025. With their lofty implied team total and a great defensive matchup, even Quentin Johnston is on the menu as a FLEX play this week, but McConkey is set up to be the star of the show.

Sit: DJ Moore, Bills

In 2025, 41 wide receivers ran at least 500 routes. Among that group, DJ Moore ranked 37th in yards per route run, sandwiched between Tre Tucker and Jerry Jeudy. He was even worse in targets per route. Fewer players gave us such a large sample of dreadful football. On a new team willing to make him the focal point of their passing attack, Moore's efficiency will probably rebound this year. Will that happen versus a Houston defense that led the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed? I'm betting against it.

Sit: Matthew Golden, Packers

Golden should get on the field far more often in his second season after the team got rid of Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks in the offseason. That doesn't mean he will be more efficient. Including his postseason explosion, Golden ranked 49th in yards per route run and 75th in targets per route run. His closest comp by those two metrics was Darius Slayton. He should improve in his second season, but I'm skeptical he becomes an every-week fantasy option right away.

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• Denny Carter,

Tight End

Start: Juwan Johnson, Saints

Johnson averaged 11.7 PPR points in games Tyler Shough started. That also roughly lines up with his post-Rashid Shaheed split, when he averaged 11.6 points per game. The Saints drafted Jordyn Tyson as a Shaheed replacement and then some. They also added tight end Oscar Delp via the draft. Tyson is on IR and Delp looks unlikely to suit up, meaning Johnson should have no issues replicating his nearly 12 points per game in a potential shootout with the Lions.

Start: Harold Fannin, Browns

Only the Colts allowed more slot targets to opposing teams than the Jags last year.

That also carried over to slot targets for tight ends specifically, where they ranked fourth in opportunities allowed. As a rookie, Fannin ranked 12th in the NFL in slot targets among tight ends. Fannin is a certified stud who specializes in racking up PPR points. His Week 1 matchup should make that easier than ever.

Sit: Oronde Gadsden, Chargers

The Chargers played their starters for seven snaps during the preseason. Gadsden was on the field for one of them. Charlie Kolar logged six snaps and Njoku was on the field for five reps. Gadsden simply looks like a backup tight end heading into Week 1.

Sit: Greg Dulcich, Dolphins

Per DraftKings, Malik Willis has the lowest passing attempts (28) and completions (18) props of the week. Those marks would both be career highs for the former Packer and Titan. Deshaun Watson has him beat for the lowest yardage total by one yard. Dulcich is a true journeyman who split reps with rookie Will Kacmarek during the preseason. He isn't getting home for fantasy managers unless he plays every snap and dominates targets, neither of which is a given in the first game of the year.