‘You don’t wanna get burned’: As Patrick Mahomes, Bo Nix return, NFL defensive minds split on how to game-plan for QBs in first game back from injury

When the NFL released its season schedule in May, the league's calculated risk flashed.

In a vacuum, scheduling the Denver Broncos to face the Kansas City Chiefs for the Monday Night Football" season opener made perfect sense. Two competitive teams with star quarterbacks and Super Bowl-winning coaches playing a division game? The intrigue was obvious.

But zoom out, and zoom back to May: The schedule-makers were banking on answers yet undelivered. The Chiefs' quarterback, two-time MVP Patrick Mahomes, was still rehabilitating from tearing his left ACL and LCL on Dec. 14. The Broncos' quarterback, Bo Nix, had undergone one surgery after a Jan. 17 ankle fracture and another in April to clean up bone spurs.

Neither injury seemed likely to threaten the quarterbacks' careers. But starting Week 1? Back in May, banking on that was more optimistic than certain.

Fast forward to now, and both Nix and Mahomes are on track to start Monday night after fully participating in their respective training camps. Nix dissolved concerns about his limitations early in camp when throwing a 48-yard pass on the run, Broncos head coach Sean Payton told Yahoo Sports. Nix also played in the preseason.

Mahomes did not play in the preseason, as he had in seven prior pro campaigns, but he's scheduled to start on Monday.

Pretty good chance that Patrick will go ahead and start unless something were to come up here in the next couple days," Chiefs head coach Andy Reid told reporters on Tuesday. But most likely, he'll be the guy that's out there."

Patrick Mahomes is expected to start on Monday night against the Broncos. It would be his first game since Week 15 last season, when he suffered a torn ACL and LCL. David Eulitt via Getty Images

Reid added that Mahomes has shown everything" in preseason work, running and throwing as normal albeit with the addition of a knee brace.

So as two teams whom oddsmakers expect to produce winning seasons face off, how much will and should the Chiefs and Broncos defenses factor the quarterbacks' injuries into their game plans?

Yahoo Sports surveyed 17 sources from 11 NFL teams during training camp to find out. The sources include one head coach, six defensive coordinators, one defensive assistant coach and nine players. Four of the nine players are edge rushers, four are defensive backs and one plays linebacker.

Several see the merit in both arguments. A narrow 9-8 majority argued the risk of factoring injuries into game plans outweighs the reward. The eight-person minority advocated that at least some game plan or playbook tweaks could deliver valuable edges.

I don't necessarily think that you want to overreact either way the first game of the season ... " Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator Christian Parker said. Try to see where they're at, whether it's press them more from a different side or sitting back and seeing if they're gonna run around. You might take some liberties when it comes to that.

But you don't wanna get burned the hard way when they're healthier than you think."

The cases for, against defenses trying to capitalize on QB injury

Broncos veteran edge rusher Zach Allen has watched quarterbacks seem to defy the laws of biology and physics.

Allen played then-Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson in 2021 during Wilson's second game back from surgery to repair a ruptured tendon and fracture-dislocation in his middle finger, Wilson throwing for 207 yards against Allen's Arizona Cardinals and posting a four-touchdown game later that season. Allen has watched more recently as injuries have limited Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow in three of six pro seasons. Repeatedly, Burrow has returned on a heater. (Think: two four-touchdown games in his first four back from a turf toe surgery last season.)

The quarterback play is at probably the highest level it's ever been," says Allen, who will start against Mahomes on Monday. When they come back, it's kind of like they're back at full strength. If anything, they're rested and feel better."

Accelerating rehabilitation timelines leaves some defensive opponents wary of underestimating players' physical resilience. Others cite the psychological element of rehabilitation for athletes disciplined enough to thrive professionally. That innate competitor" trait that helped them reach these professional heights can't be understated, Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Aden Durde said.

Cowboys defensive pass game coordinator Derrick Ansley broke down his tactical expectation for Mahomes and Nix.

Most of these guys are going to play on-platform anyway," said Ansley, who also coaches Cowboys defensive backs. Pat's always been quicker than fast, so he's still going to have that instinct. Same thing with Bo. There's no real advantage. ...

My opinion: Just scout it straight up and start with what they do well from past film."

Bo Nix led the Broncos to an overtime postseason victory against the Bills. A broken ankle sidelined him for the AFC championship game. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images)Perry Knotts via Getty Images

Eight of the coaches and players believed injury layoffs create opportunity.

San Francisco defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who has also prepared for opponents as a head coach, said the psychology of injury warrants game-plan shifts. Making contact with the quarterback early - legally, of course - could create discomfort. Facing a quarterback who hasn't played in the preseason raises the stakes for initial live contact.

Quarterbacks, particularly when they're coming off injury ... want to go back to their roots," Morris said. And when they go back to their roots, you want to be able to find those things and try to exploit things as quick as you can on defense."

Defenders and coaches cited movement as a key cue they'd look for in facing Mahomes or Nix in Week 1. Is the quarterback moving more fluidly to his left or the right? If one looks weaker, try to force them in that direction. Does the quarterback move outside the pocket by choice? Some surveyed voted to sit back and test the quarterback's appetite for movement, while others advocated instead for pushing the pocket early.

Different people give off different keys, so you just want to read your keys," Seahawks edge rusher DeMarcus Lawrence said. Is it hard for them to step up in the pocket or [do] they like to roll out? Patrick Mahomes likes to move around and stuff. So, OK, is his ACL limiting him from rolling out to his right versus his left? ... OK, he had an ACL surgery: So when, it's a pass, [are] his legs straight versus bent? Or is he up on his toes?"

Defensive backs surveyed were eager to join their front-seven teammates in creating pressure on a quarterback. Steelers safety DeShon Elliott compared facing a quarterback returning from injury to facing a rookie quarterback in the NFL. There are questions they've yet to answer and rust they've yet to knock off - behold, opportunity.

Blitz they ass," Elliott said. Get after they ass because that'll be the first chance having live bullets. You can simulate that all you want, but that's not football. You can't touch the quarterback at practice. So you get after that ass and you blitz. Send it. You send it because it might give them a little jitters.

And then once they get the jitters, it could be wraps."

What tells will Broncos, Chiefs look for in their chess match?

Expect each defense to test quarterbacks early in the game. But just because a test hasn't come by, say, halftime, doesn't mean it won't come later.

If you can have that little extra waiting that he hasn't seen, I think that's important for guys like that," said Indianapolis Colts defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, who coordinated the 2021 Bengals defense that beat Mahomes in the AFC championship game. You got to try to save a little something so [they think], Hey, they don't have that today.' And then maybe you do. It's something that they're not ready for."

In between those early tests and the later ones, each defense must heed not only the opposing quarterback's health but also the shifting pieces around him.

The Broncos enter this season with a remarkably consistent roster from last year but change in two key offensive areas: play-caller and receiver. First-year offensive coordinator Davis Webb has taken over play-calling duties from Payton, a move expected to bring more shifts and motions, different run-pass option concepts and varied use of tempo at the line of scrimmage. The Broncos also traded their 2026 first-round draft pick (and swapped late-round picks) for speedy receiver Jaylen Waddle, who will challenge a Chiefs defense that lost its starting cornerbacks to the Los Angeles Rams this spring.

Nix nonetheless expects Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo to vary coverages.

I feel like he's going to have many bags of tricks and have a lot thrown at us, but at least I can see it a little bit," Nix said of entering his fifth career game vs. the Chiefs. I've seen a lot of their structure and I've gotten more and more comfortable. ...

He'll throw a lot of different things at you and make you respond. We're going to be ready for it but also have to adjust."

Kansas City, meanwhile, has added Super Bowl MVP running back Kenneth Walker III to stabilize its run game after falling to 20th in yards per game last season, the lowest production in Mahomes' starting era. Wide receiver Rashee Rice has returned from injury as an outlet in the passing game. But Mahomes is returning behind a compromised offensive line that's promoted undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson at left tackle in place of 2025 first-round pick Josh Simmons (back). If Mahomes favors his right side on movement, that could say more about the offensive line than the strength of his left knee.

He will wear his knee brace for the game, Mahomes said Wednesday.

I mean, it was kind of designed for my type of injury," Mahomes said. I'm very comfortable with it and that's why I've practiced throughout OTAs and training camp and then now, being in the season, is to kind of prepare myself to be comfortable with it. I don't even think about it when I have it on other than when it gets loose. Usually it's better when I wear pants, so I'm excited for that.

Maybe I'll have to slide a little differently, but other than that, I'll be able to go out there and play."

Nix and Mahomes both will be able to go out there to play, validating the NFL schedule-makers' May decision to stage this game in a standalone prime-time window.

NFL fans will be watching Nix's ankle and Mahomes' knee closely. Chiefs and Broncos defenders, too, will be on alert for any tells.

Obviously I want to test him and see if he's still Patrick and if he's moving like Patrick because the best thing he did was play off schedule," Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph said. That's always our calling card is to make quarterbacks move off the spot and make them run for their lives. So we'll see if he can do that. But nothing different.

I wouldn't pressure him more often than not because sometimes, when you pressure a veteran quarterback, it makes it easy for him. ...

Nothing really schematically different, but obviously [got] to get him off his mark and see if he's Patrick."