Predicting the Chargers 2026 win record: Recent history says Bolts will be fine

INGLEWOOD, CA - AUGUST 20: Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh prior to the game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the San Francisco 49ers on August 20, 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. (Photo by David Dennis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) | Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

With the Chargers kicking off against the Cardinals in little more than 48 hours as I'm typing this, it's about time I throw my hat in the ring with a season record prediction for 2026.

After winning 11 games in each of the last two seasons, the Chargers rightfully deserve some more respect. They have shown some level of consistency and that's something I want to give them credit for, but MAN this schedule looks daunting.

Outlooks have changed ever-s0 slightly after Patriots-Seahawks and 49ers-Rams, but overall it's still one heck of slate to get through.

Let's go ahead and dive in.

Week 1: Vs. Cardinals

The Chargers get one of the worst teams in the NFL to begin the season with the Cardinals coming to town.

Veteran journeyman Jacoby Brissett was named their starting quarterback which immediately puts a cap on their ceiling. There's notable names strung throughout the rest of the roster, from Michael Wilson to Trey McBride and 2026 third-overall pick Jeremiyah Love, but I just don't see how Arizona competes well week-in and week-out.

The Bolts should win this one handedly if they come in as prepared as they should be.

Arizona's defense was the 27th-ranked unit in 2025 with a bottom-10 group in both pass and run defense. This should be a really good show us what you got" moment for Mike McDaniel in his first real game as offensive coordinator.

Result: Win(1-0)

Week 2: Vs. Raiders

Raiders star tight end Brock Bowers just underwent a surgery to clean up his meniscus and is expected to miss at least one game, maybe two" according to multiple reports. Most meniscus procedures lead to more than just one to two games missed and I believe that means it could be a safe conclusion that the Chargers will avoid having to game plan for Bowers in this one.

The Raiders are better at quarterback this year having traded Geno Smith for Kirk Cousins, but exactly how much better is that? The last time Cousins faced the Chargers defense, he was picked off four times and threw zero touchdowns. In that game, he had a MUCH better cast of skill players around him compared to who he is throwing to this year.

Aside from Bowers and running back Ashton Jeanty, you'd be hard-pressed to find a casual fan who could name a single Raiders wideout.

This should be another dominant win by the Chargers.

Result: Win (2-0)

Week 3: @ Bills

Traveling to Buffalo to face the Bills is just the first step in a long journey through an absolute gauntlet for the Chargers.

From Week Three to 10, the Chargers will have four former NFL MVPs and the reigning Super Bowl champions, plus two other teams that have won a Lombardi Trophy this decade.

This stretch will make or break the 2026 season. It will tell us exactly where the Chargers sit in the pantheon of the NFL's best.

Their first road game coming against Josh Allen is a heck of a task and I don't see the Chargers being up to challenge coming off two cupcake matchups. I think they compete, but Allen's experience in tight games against other AFC powerhouses will ultimately be the difference here.

Result: Loss (2-1)

Week 4: @ Seahawks

There's a real chance the Chargers do not have to face the Seahawks with Sam Darnold at quarterback if his hip injury ends up being severe enough. Initial X-rays did not show a fracture, but don't be surprised if Seattle plays it cautiously with their quarterback. They need him later in the year much more than they do now, especially after they escaped the Patriots in Week One.

If Drew Lock is their quarterback, I think the offense will do enough to get the job done. That is, as long as the LA defense can keep a lid on explosive plays which played a big role in Seattle's win on Wednesday night.

Result: Win (3-1)

Week 5: Vs. Broncos

There's been a ton of discourse on the Broncos this offseason centered around just how good Bo Nix really is compared to some of the other veteran and elite passers. In my opinion, he's found the best way his game translates to the NFL and it helps to have an elite defense behind him.

However, the Broncos were not as dominant last year as their record made it look like and regression will come. The pass rush was near historic levels and Nix's offensive line played out of their minds compared to how they look on paper.

I think the Chargers utilize home-field advantage and pull out a close one in another AFC West showdown.

Result: Win (4-1)

Week 6: Vs. @ Chiefs

I expect the Chiefs to rebound in some fashion this year, but I can't imagine it being a massive one.

Patrick Mahomes is coming off a torn ACL and Travis Kelce is one year older. The offense did not get that much better, even with the addition of running back Kenneth Walker. The wide receiver room is still fast, but that's about it.

Andy Reid is still a top-three coach in the NFL and Mahomes is arguably still the best quarterback in the NFL (for now.) Those two will yank and drag the Chiefs to a better record than their roster suggests they should have, but I don't see them being the same monolithic threat they were before the 2025 season.

These two teams always play it close until the end and I see the Chargers getting that final bounce their way at home.

Result: Loss (4-2)

Week 7: Bye

Holding a 4-2 record at the bye is honestly a miracle. Several things went their way luck-wise and the team managed to take care of business when they needed to against some tough opponents. This record gives them much more room for error down the stretch.

Week 8: @ Rams

Myles Garrett and Aaron Donald - the latter of which is probably up and running at full speed by this point in the season - are the only reasons I need to foresee a Chargers loss here.

The interior of the offensive line is nowhere near good enough to handle Donald, even at this age, and Garrett is just him. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year in the NFL.

The Chargers will have to hold onto their seats no matter which unit is on the field. If the offense isn't having its hands full with their pass rush, the defense will be tasked with stopping Matthew Stafford (reigning MVP) while he's throwing it around the yard to Puka Nacua and Davante Adams.

Even while technically playing at home, I think Sean McVay will be too much to handle for defensive coordinator Chris O'Leary.

Result: Loss (4-3)

Week 9: Vs. Texans

That defense is going to be great. It's going to terrorize offense all season long. My confidence here resides in Slater and Alt being healthy on top of McDaniel being able to call a much better game than Greg Roman did two years ago. McDaniel will have a much better plan getting the ball out of Herbert's hands safely.

That playoff game was still in reach despite the interceptions thanks to the LA defense. They only allowed two touchdowns to the Houston offense and mainly hunkered down and held them to field goals despite the numerous sudden change situations.

The Texans defense also scored nine points on their own (pick-six, 2-point conversion return) which is a rarity. I think this matchup showed a fluky cocktail of bad decisions and miscues and that leads me to believe this game will be much closer this time.

And yes, I'm mainly ignoring their matchup last December when the team's otherwise elite defense allowed two massive passing touchdowns on back-to-back drives due to wildly-blown coverages.

Result: Win (5-3)

Week 10: @ Ravens

Jesse Minter got a head-coaching job for a reason. He's going to have this unit ready to go and the Chargers need to be ready.

Offseason additions of of Trey Hendrickson and Calais Campbell have this front seven looking very strong. That's not even naming the likes of linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike who looks like he's getting back from an injury that took his 2025 season away.

Oh, and there's this guy named Lamar Jackson over on the other side of the ball who won a few MVPs.

This is the last game in a very tough stretch of the schedule and I think the Bolts will be fairly exhausted through it all. I think this one will come down to the end and Jackson's legs could be what helps Baltimore ice the game in the fourth.

Result: Loss (5-4)

Week 11: Vs. Jets

The Chargers made it through the gauntlet and now get the Jets at home. They couldn't be more relieved.

Without games having been played yet, we don't know what version of Geno Smith New York will have this year, but history tells us it's likely to be the version they had before and not the version who found a groove in Seattle.

Los Angeles takes care of another cupcake matchup to get themselves back to two games over .500.

Result: Win (6-4)

Week 12: Vs. Patriots

The Chargers will be ready and waiting for this matchup as it's their latest chance to get revenge against a team that bounced them from the playoffs in recent years.

Maye threw three egregious interceptions against the Seahawks and could not will his team to victory despite Seattle losing Sam Darnold for the game after the very first drive. Star wideout A.J. Brown was also just placed on injured/reserve and will have missed at least four games before this matchup. High ankle sprains are pesky injuries and it's likely he won't be near 100 percent by this point in the schedule.

I like the Chargers to simply outscore the Patriots whose offense did not look great, albeit while missing running back Treyveon Henderson.

Result: Win (7-4)

Week 13: @ Buccaneers

The Buccaneers and their current or former offensive coordinators have given the Chargers hell. Liam Coen ran up the score against this defense with both the Bucs and Jaguars and I don't think their passing attack is going anywhere, even with Mike Evans now in San Francisco.

This was a Tampa Bay defense that allowed less than 100 yards rushing per game in 2025 and I think that trend continues this year. A lack of a run game handicaps the LA offense and the Bucs win with a balance attack through the air and on the ground.

Result: Loss (7-5)

Week 14: @ Raiders

By this point in the season, the Raiders have likely handed the reigns over to Mendoza. It remains to be see how much he will progress over the long season but I don't think it will be so much so that he becomes a world-beater, which is what I think Las Vegas needs to beat the Chargers.

Result: Win (8-5)

Week 15: Vs. 49ers

I was thoroughly impressed by the Niners in their massive win over the Rams in Austrailia. Purdy looked very comfortable while throwing to both Evans and Deebo Samuel. Truly, it looked like both players turned back the clock a bit.

Their defense did most of the work alongside what had to be some semblance of jet-lag because the Rams truly looked lost and out of it for most of game.

If this isn't a fluke game, it's tough to see many teams at all beating San Francisco this season.

Result: Loss (8-6)

Week 16: @ Dolphins

Miami is currently in the running for the first-overall pick of next year's draft while yet to have played a game in 2026. That's how bad I think they will be this season.

Bringing in Malik Willis could end up looking like a disastrous decision and the team's inability to surround him with a strong supporting cast will likely spell his doom in Miami sooner rather than later.

Chargers should dominate McDaniels' former team.

Result: Win (9-6)

Week 17: Vs. Chiefs

After dropping a game in Kansas City, the Chargers get the Chiefs back here with a win at home. The younger roster of Los Angeles feels better in the penultimate week of the regular season while Mahomes' soreness in his surgically-repair ACL is just too much for him to play superman all year.

Result: Win (10-6)

Week 18: @ Broncos

With three highly-competitive teams in the AFC West, I can't help but see them splitting their home-away series with each other. After the Bolts win in Los Angeles, I have the Broncos earning the win at home in Denver.

Based on how the season goes, this could end up being a game that decides the division or playoff seeding. There will be no lack of suspense or drama in these final weeks within the AFC West.

Result: Loss (10-7)