NFL Week 2 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

Here are a couple excerpts from last week's Week 1 NFL Survivor article, just as a quick little previously on" segment: There will be some wild game in Week 1 that knocks out a significant percentage of players. Let's try to avoid that pitfall, cool?"Whenever people start to believe in the Chargers, that's when they get you."I'm ready to get hurt again, Chargers." Those were both completely unedited things that I wrote a week ago. Which is why it's extra hilarious that I chose to put all my faith behind the Chargers in Week 1. Listen, we all make mistakes, and I'm embarrassed, and if you followed me, I apologize. But now, we shake it off and try to be perfect from Week 2 on. Check out my process for my Week 2 NFL Eliminator pick, and remember: #NeverChargers.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 2

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember - this game is once you use a team, they're off the board," so it's not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can't pick a team I've picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it's too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (vs. Seattle) Buffalo Bills (vs. Detroit) Cincinnati Bengals (@ Houston) Detroit Lions (@ Buffalo) Indianapolis Colts (@ Kansas City) Miami Dolphins (@ San Francisco) Minnesota Vikings (@ Chicago) New Orleans Saints (@ Baltimore) New York Giants (@ LA Rams) Tennessee Titans (vs. Philadelphia) Some of these teams will win but you can't confidently say so, considering who they're facing. That's 10 gone, 22 to go.

They're Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you're the second-worst team, well, I'm still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We'll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Atlanta Falcons (vs. Carolina) Carolina Panthers (@ Atlanta) Cleveland Browns (@ Tampa Bay) Las Vegas Raiders (@ LA Chargers) New York Jets (vs. Green Bay) Pittsburgh Steelers (@ New England) Washington Commanders (@ Dallas) Seven more eliminations leaves us with 15 remaining. Want more tools and analysis to keep you alive in your survivor pool? Check out PoolGenius for all the best offerings.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or (we'll get to them) an overseas 9 a.m. ET game. There aren't many left this week, but I still want to note them. Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Indianapolis) Los Angeles Rams (vs. NY Giants) Two more gone, 13 left.

The Most Frustrating Week 1 Teams

This is a unique category, but there are some teams that we still think are good but for whom Week 1 was so annoying that I don't want to cast my lot with them right now. Week 1 is a small sample. Especially in an era where there are only three preseason games and a lot of good players don't even appear in them, Week 1 is a throwaway in a lot of ways. So this is not me saying I don't believe in these teams," it is me saying If I cast my lot with a team that looked like that in Week 1 and lose, I'd just feel so dumb." Dallas Cowboys (vs. Washington) Denver Broncos (vs. Jacksonville) Green Bay Packers (@ NY Jets) Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Las Vegas) New England Patriots (vs. Pittsburgh) Seattle Seahawks (@ Arizona) - Seattle won, but barely, and now Sam Darnold is hurt Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cleveland) Seven more out. We are down to six - our six contenders.

The Contenders

Once we're down to this small a number of teams, we're done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I'm also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Baltimore Ravens (vs. New Orleans)

Model Projection: Ravens 23.67-20.83, Ravens 57.9% win rate Pros: Lamar Jackson looked like his MVP self in Week 1, and Derrick Henry patently refuses to age. Cons: Two of the Ravens' top receivers (Zay Flowers and Ja'Kobi Lane) got banged up in Week 1, and the Saints' offense also looks very strong.

Chicago Bears (vs. Minnesota)

Model Projection: Bears 26.77-22.47, Bears 60.8% win rate Pros: The Bears might break the scoring record, and now they're probably facing Carson Wentz. Cons: Part of the reason the Bears might break the scoring record is that the defense isn't going to stop anyone, maybe not even Carson Wentz.

Houston Texans (vs. Cincinnati)

Model Projection: Texans 30.22-21.81, Texans 30.7% win rate Pros: The Texans are supposed to have an elite defense. Cons: That defense that was supposed to be elite gave up 35 points in Week 1 and now has to take on Ja'Marr Chase/Tee Higgins.

Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Denver)

Model Projection: Broncos 22.59-18.35, Jaguars 37.3% win rate Pros: The Jaguars had an absolutely dominant Week 1 win. Cons: That absolutely dominant Week 1 win was against the Browns, and now they have to travel to Mile High to take on an angry Broncos team.

Philadelphia Eagles (@ Tennessee)

Model Projection: Eagles 22.12-16.64, Eagles 67.1% win rate Pros: The Titans made the Jets look good in Week 1. The Eagles are better than the Jets. Cons: The Eagles did their damnedest to keep the Commanders in the game last week.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Miami)

Model Projection: 49ers 29.51-22.39, Dolphins 33.4% win rate Pros: The Rams are supposed to be the best team ever, and the 49ers just beat them by 20. Cons: Are the 49ers going to be jetlagged or anything like that after all their travels?

The PickPhiladelphia Eagles (@ Tennessee)

I want to go with the 49ers here. I don't really see a scenario where they lose. But I am at least a little gunshy about all their travel. Part of the reason the Rams did their weird fly in, fly out" plan for Australia was for the game itself, yes, but it was also for the after-effects the next week, and people are forgetting that part. The 49ers have had a lot of adjusting. I'm at least a little concerned. I'm not excited about taking the Eagles in a road game, but the Titans just made the Jets look like a good team, and even if the Eagles aren't great anymore (though they might be), they're still better than the Jets, right?

Honorable Mention

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Miami) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Cleveland) 2026 record: 0-1 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles