Week 2 NFL picks against the spread, predictions for every game: Cowboys try to rebound vs. Commanders

If you didn't know it, you'd have never thought the Dallas Cowboys defense made a single change over the offseason.

Dallas looked as bad as ever on defense in the opener. The communication issues that plagued them last season hadn't gone away. They were pushed around by the New York Giants. The Cowboys got a new coordinator and five new starters (not counting linebacker DeMarvion Overshown returning from injury), and somehow nothing looked different. The Cowboys gave up the most points in franchise history last season. In Week 1, the Giants had the highest EPA (expected points added) per play in the entire NFL against Dallas' defense. Perhaps it was wrong to trust a rookie coordinator to be a magic cure and some good but not great players to completely fix the defense.

All offseason, the Cowboys were one of the most hyped teams. They spoke willingly about winning a Super Bowl even though they were 7-9-1 last season. Plenty of people who've grown tired of the attention the Cowboys get warned of falling for the same offseason buzz with Dallas. It's not like it has worked out for the past 30 years. And based on one game, maybe those critics were right.

The Cowboys come into Week 2 not talking about a Super Bowl anymore, but needing a win over the Washington Commanders and to avoid another embarrassing performance on defense. The defensive part shouldn't be too much to ask, but after last week it isn't a given.

Week 1 can provide some weird results. Some things we saw last week won't make any sense in a couple months. Maybe the Cowboys' performance, especially on defense, is one of those outliers. For this week we'll give the Cowboys another chance, against a Washington team that wasn't exactly smooth in its opener even though it nearly beat the Eagles. Cowboys -4 is the pick. And if Dallas plays as poorly as it did in New York, all of that offseason hype will look even sillier.

Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer is hoping to avoid an 0-2 start to the season. (AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura)AP Photo/Yuki Iwamura

Here are the against the spread picks for the rest of the Week 2 games in the NFL:

Lions (+5.5) over Bills

Week 2 is interesting. We have to weigh what we saw in the opening week vs. what we know about these teams and thought of them over a long offseason. In Week 1, we saw Josh Allen look like Superman against a Texans defense that will be just fine, while the Lions had to successfully defend a two-point conversion to hang on to beat the Saints in overtime. The Bills are a good team, but so are the Lions. A letdown after going up 21-0 against New Orleans isn't ideal, but it happens. This will be a fun game, and a close one.

Buccaneers (-8.5) over Browns

It's not comfortable to take the Buccaneers giving more than a touchdown. They might not be that good. But it's way harder to back the Browns as long as Deshaun Watson is their quarterback. And it's not like anything else looked good for Cleveland in Week 1.

Packers (-3.5) over Jets

You're going to hear about lookahead lines (point spreads posted before the previous week kicks off) a few times. In Week 2 it's an easy way to see overreactions to a one-game sample size. Last week the Packers were -5.5 for their game at the Jets (h/t to 4for4.com). Now it's two points shorter. The Packers out-gained the Vikings 419-239 and while the fourth quarter collapse was awful, it's not like they were outplayed. The Jets did outplay the Titans, but we might look back on that as the first sign that Tennessee is one of the NFL's worst teams. The Packers should still be the far better team here.

Panthers (-2.5) over Falcons

Tough to gauge this game because we don't know who is starting at quarterback for the Falcons. If it's Michael Penix Jr., clearly the Falcons have a better shot. If it's undrafted rookie Jack Strand, we could see another Max Brosmer story. Last year people went crazy about some preseason highlights of Brosmer with the Vikings, then the undrafted rookie played really poorly when he got a shot in the regular season. The Panthers haven't covered as a favorite since 2021, which seems impossible. This is their week to do it.

Eagles (-7) over Titans

I'd rather not take a road favorite this big early in the season. And there is going to be overreaction to Tennessee's Week 1 performance that I'd normally avoid. But it was troubling how bad the Titans were in the opener. Their offense was hideous. It's not going to be any easier against the Eagles' defense. Philadelphia had its own offensive issues in Week 1, but how do the Titans move the ball in this one?

Texans (-2.5) over Bengals

I believe the Texans will have a top three defense this season. What we saw in Week 1 was Josh Allen announcing to the NFL world that he has reached a new level, which is scary. Houston's offense looked much improved in Week 1, which is a positive that could be something we're talking more about later on in the season. The Bengals won last week, but it's hard to live off turnovers and they needed all four they got to beat Tampa Bay. Cincinnati is still a slow-starting team and I won't overreact to the Texans losing to Allen's unbelievable outing in Week 1.

Saints (+8.5) over Ravens

Oddsmakers really like Baltimore. They were high on the Ravens before the season started, and that looked smart as Baltimore steamrolled the Colts in Week 1. I have some concerns about the health of Baltimore's receivers, after Zay Flowers hurt his hamstring and Ja'Kobi Lane fractured his wrist. Lamar Jackson needs someone to throw to. Meanwhile, the Saints offense got off to a poor start but finished well enough to believe they can at least keep the Ravens honest.

Bears (-4.5) over Vikings

Another tough pick without knowing exactly who is at quarterback for the Vikings. The guess is it's Carson Wentz after Kyler Murray's concussion. I have plenty of concerns about the Bears defense, but I know they'll score, even against Brian Flores' house of mirrors blitz concepts. I'd like to take the Vikings to fade some of the Bears hype, but can't depend on Wentz to outscore Chicago's offense.

Patriots (-5.5) over Steelers

The Steelers won and there still should be significant concerns about them. Their EPA on offense was 30th in the NFL and the success rate was 32nd, and that was at home against a mediocre Falcons defense. Their defensive numbers looked OK, but that was against Cooper Rush. I was not impressed with the Steelers. The Patriots lost and the week has been spent bashing Drake Maye, but an easier opponent, a home game and some extra rest will do New England well.

Chargers (-6.5) over Raiders

The lookahead line last week was Chargers -9.5. They looked awful losing to the Cardinals. But do we make much of the Raiders beating a Dolphins team that barely has an NFL roster? I don't buy that the Chargers are a terrible team all of a sudden. They just had a terrible game, which we've seen happen in Week 1 before. And the Chargers need to win with a brutal stretch of the schedule coming up.

Broncos (-2.5) over Jaguars

A true test of not overreacting to Week 1. The Jaguars looked great. The Broncos couldn't have looked worse, with the offense flailing around and the defense forgetting how to tackle. This is a blind pick that the Broncos are much better than we saw last week and also their home-field advantage in September. The Broncos are 85-34-2 at home all-time in September. It's not easy to play at high altitude early in the season.

Dolphins (+13.5) over 49ers

It's not going to be fun to back the Dolphins this season. The line of Raiders -3.5 last week was way, way too low. We haven't fully realized how bad Miami might be this season. Still, the 49ers could have a letdown after beating the Rams, and the fatigue from a long Australia trip could be real. It's just hard to trust the Dolphins to keep it close.

Seahawks (-4) over Cardinals

Seattle was -10 on the lookahead line. When Yahoo Sports' Ben Fawkes polled oddsmakers, they had the difference between Sam Darnold and Drew Lock at about 4.5 points. So the line has moved 1.5 points because the Cardinals played well against the Chargers? Seattle has a lot of extra rest, which helps not just to recover but to get Lock ready. The Seattle defense is still just fine, too.

Colts (+6.5) over Chiefs

This is a tough game to call. The Chiefs got an easy win over the Broncos. The defense looked good and Kenneth Walker III was outstanding. The passing game still remains an issue. Meanwhile, nothing looked good for the Colts in Week 1. That makes it hard to back them in Week 2 at Arrowhead Stadium. But ugly dogs cover all the time in the NFL.

Giants (+7) over Rams

We shouldn't buy into overreaction. The Rams were -9.5 on the lookahead line. Myles Garrett is great but probably not worth 2.5 points on the line. It seems like this is a good spot to take the Rams and their extra days off since the opener. But we all know that wasn't a normal opener. The Rams supposedly had an aggressive travel plan for Week 1 to avoid the Australia trip taking a toll for weeks after. But what if that's unavoidable? The NFL did neither team any favors shipping them halfway across the world for the season opener and it could linter for them both for a while. Also, the Rams looked terrible in Week 1 and while it's logical to dismiss that due to the long trip, what if it's not? At very least, we need to see the Rams look like the Rams team that was hyped up all offseason before laying a touchdown with them against a Giants team that looked pretty good in the opener. It's amazing what upgrading from Brian Daboll to John Harbaugh can do for a team.

Last week: 7-9