Fantasy Football Week 2 Matchups to Exploit: Giants are in a good spot despite what appears to be a tough draw vs. the Rams
Every week, I'm looking for matchups where usage, opportunity and the opponent give us a reason to be more aggressive than the consensus. We're only one week into the season, so I'm not trying to pretend we know exactly what every offense or defense is going to be. But there are already some things we can take advantage of.
Here are five players and their matchups I'm looking to exploit in Week 2.
RB Cam Skattebo, Giants at RamsCam Skattebo was an absolute dog against Dallas.
That is the easiest way I can describe what we saw in Week 1. He ran 18 times for 81 yards and a touchdown, but this wasn't just about the box score. Skattebo had the type of physicality the Giants clearly want to establish. He doesn't shy away from contact. He gets downhill and this offense is using heavier personnel to create opportunities for him to do exactly that.
I'm not here to tell you how long that running style is going to last in the NFL. I'm worried about right now, and right now this matchup makes a ton of sense.
The Rams allowed the highest rushing success rate in Week 1 along with the most yards before contact per attempt. San Francisco was able to run the ball against this front and now Los Angeles will be without Myles Garrett after he was placed on injured reserve.
Skattebo handled 69% of the Giants' running back carries in Week 1. Devin Singletary got more receiving work than most people probably expected, so there is a little caution there, but this is the type of matchup where what Skattebo does best should work.
My model has him at RB15 with 14.9 half-PPR points compared to RB19 at Yahoo and RB19 in Expert Consensus Ranking (ECR).
Give me the physical runner against a defense that just showed it can be run on.
TE Isaiah Likely, Giants at RamsSkattebo isn't the only Giants player I'm targeting.
Isaiah Likely opened the season with eight catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets. More importantly, he commanded a 27.6% target share, four red-zone targets and a 31.8% first-read share.
His 50% snap share may scare some people away, but the Giants are using a ton of heavier personnel and Likely is functioning as a receiver when he is on the field.
The Rams were very good against tight ends last season, so I'm not going to ignore that. But this defense already looks different. Los Angeles allowed the sixth-highest passing success rate in Week 1 and generated one of the league's lowest pressure rates. Now Garrett is out and there are injury questions at linebacker and safety.
Those are exactly the areas of the field where Likely can create problems.
Yahoo and ECR both have Likely at TE8. My model has him at TE2 with a 58% chance to score more than 11 fantasy points and a 23% Boom probability of scoring more than 20.
That's a pretty significant difference from where the market has him ranked this week.
WR Matthew Golden, Packers at JetsIt was good to see second-year receiver Matthew Golden come out firing in Week 1.
Golden saw 12 targets, catching six for 95 yards. He ran a route on 87% of Green Bay's dropbacks, commanded a 30% target share and led the team with a 30.3% first-read share. He also posted a top-10 usage score among NFL wide receivers in my Trinity model.
Jordan Love attempted 42 passes in Week 1, one of the highest single-game totals of his career, and Green Bay may need him throwing the ball at an elevated rate again. Josh Jacobs is sidelined and this running game hasn't given me much confidence so far.
The Jets basically had a bye week against Tennessee in Week 1. This is going to be a much different challenge.
I don't think this is necessarily an easy coverage matchup. The Jets played two-high on 59% of their defensive snaps last week and have traditionally been tough on perimeter receivers. But Golden already showed he can command targets in this offense and that is what I'm betting on here.
Christian Watson is going to demand attention vertically, which should continue opening opportunities for Golden underneath and in the intermediate areas of the field.
Yahoo has Golden at WR29 and ECR has him at WR33. My model has him at WR32.
For me, this is about chasing the 12 targets, the route participation and that top-10 Trinity usage profile.
RB Jadarian Price, Seahawks at CardinalsIt feels like a month ago that we watched Jadarian Price because Seattle opened the season on Wednesday night.
And I already think people are getting impatient.
Price only handled 10 carries, but he turned them into 52 yards and looked explosive doing it. He had a 20% explosive-run rate, averaged 2.9 yards after contact per attempt and looked like Seattle's most explosive running back when he got opportunities.
He's also a rookie who missed time during training camp.
Let the dude work himself into the season.
There are still some things we need to see. George Holani received both of Seattle's red-zone carries in Week 1 and this backfield isn't completely Price's yet.
But the matchup gives him a chance to take another step.
Arizona allowed the third-most yards after contact per attempt and the third-highest missed-tackle rate in Week 1. Seattle's offensive line created room for its backs and with Drew Lock starting at quarterback, I expect the Seahawks to lean on the running game.
My simulation gives Price a 34% chance to score more than 14 fantasy points this week and an 8% chance to Boom with more than 24.
For a rookie back who already showed some juice in limited opportunities, I'm willing to bet on that matchup against Arizona.
WR Mike Evans, 49ers vs. DolphinsAnd then we've got old man Mike Evans.
Different team. Same Mike Evans.
Evans caught six passes for 49 yards and a touchdown in his San Francisco debut against the Rams last week. He tied for the team lead with a 20.6% target share, led the 49ers with a 24% first-read share and immediately saw two red-zone targets.
That last part should surprise absolutely nobody.
Evans has made a career out of winning in the red zone and now he's playing in a Kyle Shanahan offense that should consistently create those opportunities.
Miami generated pressure on just 6.5% of Week 1 dropbacks and will ask a very young secondary to deal with Evans, Deebo Samuel Sr., Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
Good luck.
There is always some concern that San Francisco gets up early and doesn't need to throw the ball 35 or 40 times, but Evans doesn't need that type of volume.
My model has him projected as the WR14 this week at 16 fantasy points, which puts me right in line with expert consensus.
What I like is the touchdown opportunity.
Give Evans six or seven targets with a couple of looks near the goal line against this Miami defense and he can turn that into a big fantasy day very quickly.
This matchup doesn't scare me at all.