Andy Burnham faces a weakened Trump – but the president remains unpredictable

PM hopes to be firmer with US leader than his predecessor without provoking diplomatic warfare, as the Iran war weighs on the UK economy

No international relationship has more power to determine the success of Andy Burnham's premiership. So you might imagine the stakes for the prime minister's first face-to-face meeting with Donald Trump on Tuesday would be high.

Yet Burnham may prove to be a lucky general. The balance of risk has shifted. Trump is unpopular at home, where inflation remains high, and is mired in an intractable conflict in Iran that has the potential to sink his midterm dreams.