NFL Week 3 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

With 1:56 left Sunday, the Eagles were down 20-17 and looked like they might lose to the Titans. With 10 seconds left, they were still down. They scored a touchdown then, and even if they hadn't they were close enough that they were likely to kick a field goal and send it to overtime, but still, my Week 2 NFL Survivor (or NFL Eliminator, if that's your jam) pick was that close to missing. Coming off a Week 1 miss (stupid Chargers), sure, I was more than a little scared that I'd fall to 0-2 and look like a big ol' dummy. As it is, I'm only a half dummy. Below, check out my Week 3 pick for Survivor contests. And while we're here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 3

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember - this game is once you use a team, they're off the board," so it's not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can't pick a team I've picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it's too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (@ San Francisco) Dallas Cowboys (vs. Baltimore) Denver Broncos (vs. LA Rams) Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. New England) Los Angeles Chargers (@ Buffalo) Los Angeles Rams (@ Denver) Miami Dolphins (vs. Kansas City) New England Patriots (@ Jacksonville) Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Cincinnati) Washington Commanders (vs. Seattle) Some of these teams will win but you can't confidently say so, considering who they're facing. That's 10 gone, 22 to go.

They're Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you're the second-worst team, well, I'm still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We'll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Atlanta Falcons (@ Green Bay) Carolina Panthers (@ Cleveland) Cleveland Browns (vs. Carolina) Las Vegas Raiders (@ New Orleans) New York Giants (vs. Tennessee) New York Jets (@ Detroit) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Minnesota) Tennessee Titans (@ NY Giants) Eight more eliminations leaves us with 14 remaining. Want more tools and analysis to keep you alive in your survivor pool? Check out PoolGenius for all the best offerings.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or (we'll get to them) an overseas 9 a.m. ET game. There aren't many left this week, but I still want to note them. Chicago Bears (vs. Philadelphia) Green Bay Packers (vs. Atlanta) Philadelphia Eagles (@ Chicago) Three more gone, 11 left.

They Have the Same Record

This one is a little silly, but I'm actually comfortable with it. It's Week 3. It's too early to have grand conclusions on teams. So I'm not saying a 1-1 team is a true .500 club or an 0-2 team is a true .000 team or anything like that. That would be silly. But what I am saying is, at this point in the season, I would feel dumb if I picked a 1-1 team against a 1-1 team and was like, Well this 1-1 team is obviously better," and then I go out there and lose with that 1-1 team. So these are soft eliminations, and I'll still consider them for Honorable Mention below, but as far as my No. 1 pick goes, anyone facing a team with the same record as it is out. Baltimore Ravens (@ Dallas) Detroit Lions (vs. NY Jets) Houston Texans (@ Indianapolis) Indianapolis Colts (vs. Houston) That's four more, leaving seven behind - our seven contenders.

The Contenders

Once we're down to this small a number of teams, we're done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I'm also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Buffalo Bills (vs. LA Chargers)

Model Projection: Bills 28.27-21.66, Bills 66.1% win rate

Pros: The Chargers have been a disaster, and the Bills have been off to a great start. Cons: LA has to start getting better at some point, right?

Cincinnati Bengals (@ Pittsburgh)

Model Projection: Steelers 22.99-22.43, Bengals 48.5% win rate Pros: The Bengals are off to their best start in years, the defense actually looks competent, and the Steelers are a mess. Cons: Confidently picking anyone in an AFC North matchup has historically not been a wise decision.

Kansas City Chiefs (@ Miami)

Model Projection: Chiefs 27.01-19.46, Chiefs 69.4% win rate Pros: The Chiefs are off to a very good start, while the Dolphins are off to the exact start we all expected. Cons: Maybe you don't want to take a team on the road? That's all I got.

Minnesota Vikings (@ Tampa Bay)

Model Projection: Buccaneers 21.18-20.43, Vikings 47.7% win rate Pros: The Vikings are 2-0 despite a mess at quarterback and shut down the Bears offense. Cons: The mess at quarterback persists - Kyler Murray is back this week, but we haven't seen anything from him yet.

New Orleans (vs. Las Vegas)

Model Projection: Saints 21.30-16.19, Saints 66.5% win rate Pros: The Saints are a two-point conversion away from 2-0, and Tyler Shough leads the league in passing yards. Cons: The 2-0 Raiders ... might actually be good? At the least, they aren't the pushover we thought they'd be.

San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona)

Model Projection: 49ers 25.78-21.67, 49ers 60.7% win rate Pros: No team has been more dominant through two weeks, with the 49ers rolling the Rams and Dolphins. Cons: It's possible beating a team off an around-the-world flight and the tanking Dolphins isn't actually that impressive. Meanwhile, the 49ers are getting hurt like crazy.

Seattle Seahawks (@ Washington)

Model Projection: Seahawks 27.07-19.04, Seahawks 70.7% win rate Pros: Let's see ... the Seahawks are 2-0 in convincing fashion despite losing their quarterback, while Washington is 0-2 and lost their quarterback. Cons: Uh... cross-country tip? Hard to really have much of a reason here.

The PickSeattle Seahawks (@ Washington)

Loathe as I am to take a team on the road, the Seahawks and Chiefs are pretty clearly the best options this week and both are on the road. So we'll take Seattle against Marcus Mariota in his 2026 starting debut against the defending Super Bowl champion. Jaxon Smith-Njigba might go for 200 yards in this one.

Honorable Mention

Kansas City Chiefs (@ Miami) San Francisco 49ers (vs. Arizona) 2026 record: 1-1 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks