NFL predictions: Can Browns continue streak against Steelers tonight?
Tonight on Thursday Night Football, the Cleveland Browns (2-1) take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1). Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
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This week, head coach Todd Monken talked a couple of times about the difference the fans make, and that at 2-1, the Browns haven't come close to playing their best football yet.
That's important to keep in mind, when thinking about who Cleveland just beat. Tampa Bay looks like a contender for the worst team in football, and Carolina's offense looked quite erratic. It's always a credit when Cleveland gets the win, but there was still a ton of room for improvement in those games. Here's Monken talking about the opportunity this team has:
And for Thursday night, Pittsburgh Steelers. What are we now? No matter what...did Pittsburgh win today? Did they? So, what are we, all tied at first? We're all in first place? So, right, so we're playing for first place. Holy s-, isn't that cool or what? I mean, so our guys, we're ready to rock and roll. We'll be good to go. But appreciate the fans, you know, and we're not perfect, we're not, coaching or playing, but we're going to fight like hell to get there. I promise you."
It's a great feeling when, despite not playing your best, you're able to have a positive record at the start of the season, and then when you build off that momentum, you can actually have a good record, as opposed to the meaningless wins the Browns had at the end of last season. It also gives you some breathing room to where you can lose an upset game here and there, and it not be the end of the world.
We've seen the Browns turn the ball over less on offense, and the defense has found a groove surprisingly fast under their new defensive coordinator. On offense, the running game has a lot of room for improvement, while on defense, I feel like Carson Schwesinger hasn't yet gotten back to form. If those two elements can improve, look out.
AdjustmentsIn our Q&A with our Steelers affiliate this week, I talked about how I'm very encouraged early on by the Browns' coaching staffs willingness to make adjustments, both in-game and during the week. Let me quote what I said in that discussion:
How many adjustments is a coaching staff willing to make, or are they doing to be so darn stubborn?' With Kevin Stefanski, he was a good guy, but I thought he was horrible at week-to-week and in-game adjustments. Former defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz - I loved the guy and think he did great, but the one element I disliked was that I thought he refused to pivot from his bread-and-butter philosophy against teams that might have been more equipped to beat it. There were no adjustments.
Under Monken, I saw the team get their butts whooped in Week 1, with a lot of pre-snap penalties or timeouts related to delay of games. Prior to Week 2, we heard the offensive coordinator mention that they adjusted things in practice by shortening the play clock to 35 seconds, and focusing on how to make offensive substitutions quicker. While the offensive line has still been plagued by a ridiculous number of false starts, all of the procedure penalties that could contribute to a delay of game seem to have been cleaned up quickly. Defensively, we've seen the Browns go back to man coverage in some situations, but also utilizes blitzes from a variety of directions. I get the feeling that our new defensive coordinator,Mike Rutenberg, wants to actually devise a strategy each week based on his opponent, as opposed to just calling it the same way each week. So those are some encouraging things thus far.
For this week's game against the Steelers, if I'm the Browns' defensive coaching staff, I'm looking at focusing on how to key in on Pittsburgh's two tight ends: Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington. Against the Bengals, they combined for 5 catches for 97 yards. That may not seem too ridiculous, but these are guys that often find an opening for big catch-and-runs. And we're all familiar with how Washington can make a highlight reel out of people.
Last week against the Panthers, Carolina tight ends had 8 catches for 92 yards. Considering the fact that Denzel Ward has been completely locking down his own man, the rest of the secondary or linebackers should be stepping up to prevent some of these things, especially with Aaron Rodgers poised to get rid of the ball quickly this week to negate the Browns' pass rush. Tyson Campbell returning for the Browns helps the cornerback depth, but the safeties need to be a little better in coverage at times.
- In three games, Pittsburgh's run defense has been middle-of-the-road at 18th, while their pass defense ranks 8th (but they're 22nd in yards per pass play allowed). They are 4th in the league in generating sacks, which is big considering that Cleveland has their first offensive line change this young season with Luke Wypler starting for Elgton Jenkins.
- According to FanDuel, the Browns are 2.5 point underdogs against the Steelers. The over/under is 38.5.
Head coach Todd Monken was asked about Jared Verse getting more comfortable last week:
Jared (Verse) was saying he felt like this week he got back to kind of doing what he does, which is power rushing and trying to run through guys' faces. Did you see a difference in him and the impact he had on the pass rush, and the other guys getting sacks?
I think so. First of all, Jared is a heck of a football player, okay, and he wants to be elite. He's a self-made guy, in my opinion, how hard he works, very prideful, and he's not, beyond any of us, he wants to have success, right. He wants to get to the quarterback, he wants to disrupt the game, and I think he's right in terms of just, like, all right, what can I do, right, what is it that I do well, and don't try to be anybody else but yourself, and be the best version you can of yourself.' And I think he's bought into that and really affected the quarterback. All of our guys affected, they took to heart pushing the pocket and limiting the space that their quarterback had to move around, and they all took that to heart, and that disrupted. They won't get credit for defended passes or batted balls, but there were a number of throwaways or misfires because of the pocket being pushed, getting in his lap."
QB Deshaun Watson talked about trying to get WR Jerry Jeudy involved, but that doesn't mean forcing anything just for the sake of it:
How do you get Jerry (Jeudy), or how do you get the vertical passing game going a little more? Is it being taken away, or what can you do to get a little more explosiveness in the passing game?
Yeah, I mean, at the end of the day you got to take what the defense gives you. I think teams know we want to be explosive, but at the same time, you got to let it come to it. It's got to happen naturally. Once you try to force those explosives and throw it downfield, and now you're sitting at third-and-long, and those are wasted plays. So, you got to take when those opportunities come and hit them. But at the same time, if it takes 20 plays to get a touchdown, then hey, that's what we're going to do."
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
PredictionsChris Pokorny: Based on what I've seen the past two weeks, I feel good about the Browns' defense, and the offense seems to be minimizing turnovers (but need to cut down on those penalties). Pittsburgh looked ugly over the first two weeks before their surprise offensive outburst against the Bengals last week. All of those uncertain elements should make for an unpredictable flow of how Thursday night will go. But trends show that the Steelers struggle mightily on Thursday night games for whatever reason, so I'll stick with that." Browns 20, Steelers 17
Thomas Moore: The Browns are back, baby! Well, the defense is, and Andre Szmyt is bringing it. The offense? Not so much.
But it is Steelers week, and for the first time in a while it actually means something. It may come down to whether an ineffective Deshaun Watson can do more than the corpse of Aaron Rodgers.
For one night, we believe he can!" Browns 17, Steelers 10
Jared Mueller: There are lots of reasons to think the Browns balloon could burst on Thursday Night Football, but I refuse to believe any of them. The key will be whether Mike Rutenberg's defense can be creative enough with blitzes and coverage, because Aaron Rodgers ate up man coverage in Week 3. Cleveland is better than Cincinnati, but Rodgers can still feather in passes to receivers who are running away from defenders on crossing and out routes.
On the offensive side of the ball, true RB screens and the RPO/Zone Read game will probably be the key to success in a low-scoring affair." Browns 17, Steelers 13
Curtiss Brown: This doesn't feel like an overreaction but Thursday night seems very important for the Cleveland Browns. I feel as if this game is more important for the Browns than the Steelers. For the Browns its more about earning the respect from team around the league and not being viewed as a get-right" game. They won two straight against the Carolina Panthers and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers but the Panthers are a bit suspect and the Buccaneers are unraveling. Yet the Browns beat them both.
I don't believe the Steelers are that great of a football team. I'm not saying they are bad but they aren't great. Average at best if we are being honest. Pittsburgh's offense has its limitations and their defense despite upgrading at defensive coordinator is exploitable.
As far as this game goes, it all depends on how well quarterback Deshaun Watson plays. The last time he faced the Steelers in a national televised game, he was atrocious. Watson hasn't played great but he hasn't played to the level of being benched. Defensively, the unit will have to deal with Rodgers and his ability to get rid of the ball quick.
I don't feel quite confident in picking the Browns (I picked against them twice and I'm 0-2) but I feel this game just comes down to which team doesn't shoot themselves in the foot. If the Steelers lose this game I think it would hr a bad look for them so the pressure is on them in this tilt. Stadium will be lit, physicality up to 100, might see some fights, it will be interesting." Browns 20, Steelers 19
Barry Shuck: The Browns do well against Pittsburgh at home, having a 4-1 record over the last five years. Neither QB is tearing up the league, with Aaron Rodgers throwing four TDs to just two picks while Deshaun Watson has one interception against five touchdown passes. Rodgers has three more completions of 20+ pass completions and has been sacked one less. Going back and re-watching the first three games, the Browns offensive line is holding up well despite starting two rookies. Only nine kickers are 100% in their field goals, and Andre Szmyt is one of them.
Based on net yards per game, Cleveland has the 30th-ranked total offense. They are 28th in passing yards per game and 29th in rushing stats. So, there's that. The defense against both the pass and run is middle of the pack. But so are the Steelers. It will be a tough, low-scoring game that will feature both teams' punters:" Browns 20, Steelers 17
Ezweav: Good guys have everything going for them. They've been steady beating Pittsburgh at home for years, they've been steady winning at home on Thursday night for years, and they're playing particularly well at the moment. It's definitely set up to be a giant trap.
Alas, there's something about this that just feels like it's going to be ok. Mason Graham and Carson Schweshinger should continue dominating the middle of the defense, and with Watson doing a pretty solid job of not turning the ball over, we're set up pretty well here.
Tempted to go for the anti-jinx but I'll just go straightup." Browns 23, Steelers 12
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
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