NFL Survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: My favorite Week 5 selections

The appeal of NFL Survivor contests is that even though nothing of significance happened on the field in Week 4, there's still plenty of intrigue.

Another fork in the road was created with a choice between two double-digit favorites - Baltimore and Minnesota. The Ravens survived for their contestants without Lamar Jackson in the second half, while the Vikings' offense again opted out of scoring touchdowns but beat the Dolphins 15-10.

The Bills' loss to the Patriots was the only plausible pothole for last week, as evidenced by the distribution numbers from Circa Sports' massive Survivor contest:

Survivor distribution of Circa Sports contest in Week 4.

Here is my Week 5 survivor pool analysis.

The number of remaining participants in your pool also changes the calculus when it comes to strategy. After all, the fewer the entrants, the less conceptual risk is necessary each week.

Each week (until we've exhausted all reasonable paths of survival), we look at the Survivor Contest landscape, and the best options available, while understanding that it matters who you've already taken, and what you might be giving up by burning a team that week.

Week 5 moneylines

How likely is a team to win and you'll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability.

The favorite, moneyline and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 5 (Matt Russell).Market power ratings

It's not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can't use it again. What is simple is that if you're going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you'll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL - an unnerving thought.

Here's a list of the current top 18 teams (with help from the betting market), and an estimation of their value to the point spread:

• Rams: 19.2

• Seahawks, Jaguars: 18.1

• Bills: 17.6

• Chiefs, 49ers: 17.3

• Bengals: 16.7

• Texans, Broncos: 16.2

• Cowboys: 15.7

• Bears, Lions, Patriots: 14.9

• Vikings: 14

• Steelers: 13.5

• Colts: 13

• Raiders, Falcons: 12.7

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you're giving up the opportunity to use it later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in September is nerve-wracking, but doing so at some point in December is real tension.

Week 5's top choices

As we look at the best options for Week 5 and onward, we'll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from that pick. The implied probability derived from the moneyline should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you're giving up by using it now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those matchups).

Cowboys (79.4%) over Buccaneers

Week 5 looks to be pretty complicated, especially if you don't get around to making a pick until the weekend.

The only favorite of -200 or shorter (66.6% win probability or higher) to play at home this week does so on Thursday Night Football, with the Cowboys hosting the Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay (+2.5) lost 17-14 at home against the Packers, with Jalon Daniels at the helm, so there should be less mystery about what the Bucs offense is capable of on a short week. Even against the Cowboys' not-remotely-big 'D'.

We almost always know what we'll get with the Cowboys' offense, though. Especially at home.

Estimated Availability: 99.6%

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 8 vs. Cardinals (DAL -9.5)

• Week 11 vs. Titans (DAL -10)

• Week 17 vs. Giants (DAL -7)

In a regular, 18-week Survivor format, you don't need to save the Cowboys for possible use on Thanksgiving (like you might in Circa's). While fading the Cardinals, Titans, or late-season Giants (who may be letting J.J. McCarthy take the offense for a test drive) is appealing, there might be better alternatives in those weeks than there are in this one, relatively speaking.

For example:

• Week 8: Bengals over Titans

• Week 11: Chiefs over Cardinals, Bills over Dolphins

• Week 17: Jaguars over Commanders, Falcons over Saints, Bills over Dolphins

Texans (76.3%) over Titans

Which of the many road favorites can we trust?

Sure, the one that's 0-4. Naturally.

The Texans' losses to the Bills, Bengals, Colts and Cowboys all came against teams that are much better than Tennessee, which just lost to one-half of the Ravens offense last week, and have surpassed a calendar year since they beat a team quarterbacked by someone other than Shedeur Sanders or Chris Oladokun (and much longer than that at home).

For all the trepidation surrounding the disappointing start to the season for Houston, the Texans haven't lost to a team remotely resembling the Titans.

Estimated Availability: 100%

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 7 vs. Giants (HOU -7)

• Week 18 vs. Titans (HOU -10.5)

Another reason to use the Cowboys on Thursday is that you can save the Texans for two weeks from now (at home against the Giants), ideally, at a time when they've already tasted victory once this season. Plus, in Week 7, the best options are the Panthers at home to the Bucs and the Jets hosting the Dolphins, as the Titans host the Browns - a rare scenario where Tennessee has a reasonable chance to win.

Jaguars (75.9%) over Eagles

To get to the next home favorite, you'd have to go down to the Patriots at home to the Raiders - a matchup that looked far more inviting before the season than it does now.

The Jaguars don't reside in England (in the wild or in the form of an NFL franchise), but they do regularly make a two-week trip overseas - a home away from home, if you will. Through four weeks, the case could be made that Jacksonville has been the most consistently impressive team this season, and the Eagles seem to be falling apart at the seams, with holes in the offensive line, and injuries to Saquon Barkley, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert.

Estimated Availability: 49.4%

What you're giving up (projected point spread):

• Week 10 at Titans (JAX -9.5)

• Week 12 vs. Titans (JAX -12.5)

• Week 14 vs. Steelers (JAX -6)

• Week 17 vs. Commanders (JAX -7.5)

If you think the Eagles can muster enough to topple Jacksonville in London, or just rather try to get the "Survivor week" over early with Dallas, the Jags have two meetings with the Titans shortly after getting back to the mainland and their post-European excursion bye week. Not to mention the late-season game with the Commanders referenced as an option above as part of our argument to take the Cowboys this week.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.