Bills fans have some extra rooting to do in Week 5
Well, thatwasn'ta fun week.Let'stry again.
The Buffalo Bills suffered their first loss of the season Sunday night, and losing to the New England Patriots made it hurt a little more. Buffalo is still3-1 and still very much in control of where this season goes, but the loss did change the rooting-interest game a bit.
For starters, thedivisiontiebreaker no longer belongs to Buffalo. Hopefully, that is temporary. The Bills also dropped from the top spot in the AFC, with Kansas City moving into the No. 1seed,Jacksonville sitting at No. 2, and Buffalo falling all the way to No. 3.
None of that is particularly concerning five games into a 17-game season, and all of it is reversible. But we have reached the point where simply rooting against the AFC Eastisn'tenough. Now we need some help knocking down division leaders and thinning out the teams hanging around the AFC playoff picture.
So, the rules are getting a little more complicated. Buffalo wins. The rest of the AFC East loses. AFC division leaders lose, and when two of them meet, we root against the team holding the better seed. Wild-card contenderslose, unlessBuffalo needs them to strengthen its schedule - and the AFC East rule always wins that argument. After that,we'llhappily give some wins to the teams hanging around the bottom of the AFC and let them move a little farther away from the top of the draft.
And thenthere'sthe NFC, where things are a little simpler. Buffalo opponents can win for strength of schedule - unless, of course,they'replayingthe Bills.We'dalso like to knock the NFC division leaders down a little when we can, while letting the teams at the bottom stay there and keep those premium draft picks on the other side of the league.
Got all that? Good.Let'sfindBuffalosome help.
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AFC EASTBuffalo Bills(3-1)at Los Angeles Rams(2-2)
Root for: BILLS
Wedon'tneed to overthink this one.There's only ever one right answer here, but in case youneeda reason, here you go: Buffalo has to take care of its own business before any of the help elsewhere really matters.The Billsgetthe Monday night stage this week, and a win gets them right back on track after last week's loss.Go Bills!
Las Vegas Raiders(3-1)at New England Patriots(2-2)
Root for: RAIDERS
Remember when we said the AFC East rule trumps everything else? Here is our first test. Buffalo plays Las Vegas next week, so a Raiders win would give the Bills a little strength-of-schedule boost. More importantly, though, New England just handedBuffaloits first loss and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker. Wedon'tneed thePatriotsstacking wins while they have that in their pocket, so this one gives us double the benefit: Go Raiders.
Cleveland Browns(3-1)at New York Jets(1-3)
Root for: BROWNS
This one breaks another rule. Cleveland is sitting at the top of the AFC North, which would normally make the Browns exactly the kind of team we want knocked down. But the Jets are theJets,they live in the AFC East, and the division rule comes first.We'lldeal with Cleveland later. For now, give New York another loss - although at this rate, it won't be long before the Jets aren't a factor (I know, I know, but for now we have to let the math do its work), and we will be trying to get them out of draft position. Butnot quite yet.
Cincinnati Bengals(2-2)at Miami Dolphins(0-4)
Root for: BENGALS
Cincinnati is hanging around the AFC playoff picture, while Miami is still looking for its first win. Normally that would make the Dolphins useful - give a basement team a win, hurt a potential wild-card contender, andcall it a day. Nope. Miami is still in the AFC East, andwe'renot volunteering to help anybody in the division. Let the Dolphins stay winless for another week.
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REST OF THE AFCPhiladelphia Eagles (2-2) at Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1)
Root for: EAGLES
Here's the big one. Jacksonville has jumped Buffalo in the AFC standings and currently owns the No. 2 seed, so knocking the Jaguars back down is exactly the kind of help we're looking for now. This one doesn't require any complicated tiebreaker math or competing rules. We need Jacksonville to lose. Fly Eagles, Fly.
Baltimore Ravens (3-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1)
Root for: FALCONS
Baltimore isn't leading the AFC North right now, but the Ravens are sitting in a wild-card spot at 3-1 and are very much part of the AFC race. Buffalo will get its own shot at Baltimore later this season, but for now we can let an NFC team do some work for us. A Falcons win puts another loss on an AFC contender without giving anything to another AFC team. Yes, there's the whole strength-of-schedule thing since Buffalo plays Baltimore later, but at some point we have to stop helping good AFC teams win games just because they're on the Bills' schedule.
Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2)
Root for: STEELERS
Now we get into the games where somebody in the AFChas towin. Neither team currently holds a playoff spot, but Indianapolis is in the AFC South chasing Jacksonville, while Pittsburgh is trying to keep pace in the North. Buffalo already beat Pittsburgh, so if one of these teamshas tomove to 3-2, we might as well make it the one that helps the Bills' strength of victory.
Denver Broncos (2-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (0-4)
Root for: BRONCOS
Normallywe'dbe all aboard the 0-4 Chargers finally winning one and moving themselves away from the top of the draft. But Denver is on Buffalo's schedule, which gives us a reason to keep building the Broncos' record before the Bills see them later this season. Strength of schedule wins this argument. Go Broncos.
Houston Texans (0-4) at Tennessee Titans (0-4)
Root for: TEXANS
We have been begging Houston to dosomethingfor weeks, so how about starting here? The Bills already have a win over the Texans, which means every Houston win from here makes that victory a little more valuable for strength of victory. The fact that it would also pull the Texans away from the top of the draft is just a bonus. Come on, Houston.Surelyyou can beat somebody.
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NFCDetroit Lions (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (1-3)
Root for: LIONS
Buffalo already has a win over Detroit, so every Lions win from here makes that victory a little more valuable.That'senough to make this an easy choice. The Cardinals can keep doing their thing at the bottom of the NFC while Detroit gives Buffalo a little strength-of-victory help.
Chicago Bears (3-1) at Green Bay Packers (2-2)
Root for: BEARS
Chicago is on Buffalo's schedule later this season, sowe'resticking with the Bears here. Sure,they're3-1 and hanging around near the top of the NFC North, but thatdoesn'tmatternearly asmuch to Buffalo as a stronger schedule could when the AFC playoff tiebreakers start coming into play.We'llworry about where Chicago sits in the NFC another time. For now, Bear Down.
San Francisco 49ers (4-0) at Seattle Seahawks (3-1)
Root for: SEAHAWKS
This is exactly what our new NFC rules were made for. San Francisco is undefeated and sitting atop the NFC West, solet'sknock the 49ers down a little.Seattle isn't exactly a basement dweller at 3-1, but somebody has to win this thing.Give the division leader a loss and tighten up the NFC West.
Minnesota Vikings (4-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-3)
Root for: SAINTS
Here'swhere two of our NFC rules run into each other.We'dbe perfectly happy leaving New Orleans near the bottom and keeping premium draft picks in the NFC, but Minnesota is 4-0 and leading the NFC North. Knockingdownthe division leader wins out. Give the Vikings their first loss, andwe'llworry about the Saints' draft position another week.BONUS HINT:Keeping NFC division leaders' records below their AFC counterparts also helps keep the better draft picks on the other side of the league - and out of the hands of teams like Kansas City and Baltimore. See? There is a methodtothis madness.
New York Giants (3-1) at Washington Commanders (1-3)
Root for: COMMANDERS
Same problem, same answer.We'dnormally be fine letting a 1-3 NFC team keep losing, but the Giants are leading the NFC East. Thefirst priorityis knocking down thedivisionleader, so Washington gets our support this week.Hopefullythe Commanders can go right back to losing afterward.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) at Dallas Cowboys (2-2)
Root for: COWBOYS
Here'swhere our draft-position rule takes over. Tampa Bay is 0-4, and ifthey'regoing to keep losing,we'reperfectly content to let one of the NFC teams occupy a prime spot in next year's draft. Dallasisn'tleading its division andisn'tparticularly important to Buffalo right now, so let the Buccaneers stay right where they are.
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ON A BYEKansas City Chiefs (4-0), Carolina Panthers (2-2)
Unfortunately, the AFC's No. 1 seed gets to sit this one out, so there is no help coming from the Chiefs' opponent this week. Buffalo can take care of its own business and hope to make up some ground elsewhere in the AFC, but Kansas City is guaranteed to leave Week 5 with that 4-0 record intact.
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Wearen'tquite ready to start building our dream AFC standings just yet. Give it a few more weeks, andwe'llstart keeping track of exactly how much damage a perfect Sunday could do to the teams around Buffalo.
For now, the assignment is simpler. The Bills need to get back in the win column Monday night, and after last week, a little help around the AFCwouldn'thurt. Jacksonville can give back that No. 2spot,New England can give back thedivisiontiebreaker advantage, and a few other AFC contenders can pick up losses along the way.
Last weekwasn'tmuch fun.Let'ssee if Week 5 can be a little more cooperative.