NFL Week 6 betting: 5 biggest storylines, including Rams still being favored to win Super Bowl
It was a remarkably balanced Week 5 in the NFL, from a betting perspective.
Before Monday night's game, seven favorites and seven underdogs had covered (favorites went 7-6-1 if you score the closing line for Bengals-Dolphins at Cincinnati -7 instead of -7.5). There were also seven unders and seven overs. In the Monday night game the Bills won as underdogs, evening up the underdogs' record at 7-7-1 if the Dolphins was counted as a push, and the game went over. Oddsmakers know how to set lines, especially when it comes to the NFL.
Here are the top five betting storylines for Week 6 of the NFL season:
Rams on top of Super Bowl oddsMonday night brought one of the most exciting games of the season, and a 2-3 start for the Rams after they lost in overtime to the Bills. You'd think that would drop them down in the Super Bowl odds. Not so.
The Rams are still favored to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM as of Tuesday morning, at +700 odds. The Bills and 49ers are next at +750. The Rams are also favored at FanDuel at +700 odds, with the Ravens and Bills tied for second at +750. The Rams and 49ers are tied for the best Super Bowl odds at DraftKings, with each team at +700.
The Rams' schedule does get easier, but they already trail the 49ers by three games in the NFC West. They have been one of the NFL's most disappointing teams so far, considering what was expected from them. But the current market shows that oddsmakers are unwilling to boost the Rams' odds up, worrying about having a lot of exposure if they finally live up to the preseason hype.
Eagles still favoredThe Eagles are 2-3, have not looked good yet this season and will be playing immediately after a game in London. They're facing the Carolina Panthers, who are rested after a bye.
And the Eagles are still favored. It's not by much, which shows how the Eagles have slipped. They're 1-point favorites early in the week. That's also some respect for the Panthers, who are playing very well on offense and are 2-2 to start the season.
Many road favoritesThere could be some interesting games in Week 6. There are plenty of small road favorites, or home teams that are barely favored.
In eight of the 13 games with a true home team (the Jaguars and Texans play in London, while four teams have byes), the road team is either favored or a one-point underdog. The biggest road favorite is the Bills, who are -7 at the Raiders. Las Vegas was the last undefeated team against the spread, but failed to cover in Week 5 as it got blown out by the Patriots.
It could be a wild week around the NFL.
Giants getting no respectThe Giants are 3-1-1 and in first place of the (putrid) NFC East. That 3-1-1 record doesn't hold much weight in the betting market.
The Saints are 1-4, with the only win coming on a fourth-quarter rally at Baltimore. The last two weeks they lost by 21 at home to the Falcons and by 10 at home to the Vikings, gaining only 142 yards against Minnesota. And still, the Saints are 1-point road favorites at the Giants.
That sums up the state of the NFC East through five games.
High scoring Sunday night?The Sunday night game has two flawed teams, but it still could be fun.
The Packers and Cowboys are the Sunday night game. The Cowboys are 2-3 and the Packers are 3-2. Each have their issues, including defense. Especially for Dallas. That's why the total is 52.5. The only other total on the board higher than that is Bills-Raiders at 53.
The Cowboys' defense ranks 32nd in DVOA and Packers quarterback Jordan Love just had a huge game against the Bears. We know the Cowboys can move the ball, and the Packers defense was below average before a big game against Chicago in Week 5. It could be an exciting Sunday night game.