Value of Things: By the Numbers

Last week we did some internal scouting on the Texans offense. This week we shift our attention to the defense. As we do with most things, we break down the overall numbers into their individual parts. The key to the Texans defense has always been two-fold. You shut down the opponents running game and then make the opposing quarterbacks day miserable. The Texans have been particularly good under DeMeco Ryans on the last part of that statement.

Instead of doing totals it is usually better to look at these things game by game. When you have only five games on the schedule you can have one or two games that skew results one way or another. Only the 2000 Baltimore Ravens and 1985 Chicago Bears have been dominant enough to dominate all of their opponents. For most teams we are looking at a preponderance of the evidence. So, let's start with the game by game running defense results.

Rushing Defense

	Attempts	Yards	YPC
Bills	21	86	4.1
Bengals	23	85	3.7
Colts	31	89	2.9
Cowboys	25	75	3.0
Titans	18	57	3.2

So, when you look at it this way you would have to say that the Texans defense is as good as it has always been against the run. Furthermore, they have been getting steadily better since the Buffalo game. That makes perfect sense since Josh Allen is one of the better running quarterbacks in the NFL. Additionally, the Texans have been getting healthier as they got Kayden McDonald back in the defensive tackle rotation. They also got Alzeez Al-Shaair back as well.

The big key are the attempts. The opponents are not even trying to run the ball anymore. This is even though every game except for the Titans game has either been competitive or opponents have been playing ahead. That should tell us something. It tells us one of two things. Either teams are giving up on the run because it has been ineffective or because the pass has become more effective.

Again, we can look at totals and that could tell us a lot, but I would prefer to look at the quarterbacks and how successful they have been. The Texans defense has famously made some really good quarterbacks look really awful on the season. The good news is that three of the first four quarterbacks are generally regarded as top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. However, the numbers might tell us something else.

Passing Defense

	COM	ATT	PCT	Yards	TD/INT	Rating
Josh Allen	20	29	69.0	334	2/0	130.5
Joe Burrow	20	31	64.5	207	2/0	105.2
Daniel Jones	24	36	66.7	235	1/1	82.5
Dak Prescott	32	45	71.1	335	1/0	99.8
Cam Ward	23	36	63.9	170	0/1	63.4

So, this is a glass half empty and half full deal. The three elite quarterbacks played like elite quarterbacks. The two that aren't didn't. So, the good news is that we aren't making bad or average quarterbacks look good. We just aren't making any of the good ones look bad. Obviously, what this means for the future depends on where you would peg Trevor Lawrence and the quarterbacks that follow.

To put it another way, we are looking at C.J. Stroud as having his best season since his rookie year. How would we feel about his performance if these were his games? For one, his completion percentage would be higher than it is now, but he would have fewer yards. The six touchdowns and two interceptions would be slightly worse overall than what he is currently producing. The aggregate pass rating is almost exactly what Stroud is putting up at 96.3.

Those are the numbers. The whys and what fors are generally more difficult to pinpoint. For one, it is clear that Kamari Lassiter is not having the same kind of season he had last year. Is it a blip on the radar or have other teams figured him out? Secondly, Reed Blankenship obviously struggled in his first few games as a Texan. Again, is this is a situation of him feeling out his place in the defense or was his signing a mistake? These are all important questions moving forward.

DeMeco Ryans taking back the playcalling is only in its first week. We honestly don't know if this last week was an uptick or just the Titans being the Titans. One thing is also true. This team hasn't generated turnovers like they did last season. That could be blind luck or a sign that they are not as good. Either is equally likely at this point and probably both are true in some respects. One thing is for certain, if defenses keep carving up the Texans in the passing game then they will have to try different coverages, blitz packages, and other wrinkles because simply being better than everyone else is not working this year like it has in seasons past.