NFL Week 10 Survivor/Eliminator Picks

The trade deadline is a weird time in the NFL. Some teams are making big changes, but football isn't like baseball - there is work to be done to incorporate guys into lineups and rotations. In baseball, sure, there might be some chemistry to form between pitcher and catcher or between shortstop and second baseman, but it's an individual game in a team sport. In football, you have to figure out how things work. That means that guys on new teams might not be excellent right away. And that makes this a particularly tough week making picks in NFL Survivor. Check out my Week 10 pick for Survivor contests. And while we're here, you can use our NFL Betting Model and our Bet Tracker to make a pick for yourself.

NFL Survivor Picks for Week 10

Every week, we have the same process. We eliminate teams in groups until we narrow it down to our real considerations. Start with all 32, whittle it down. And remember - this game is once you use a team, they're off the board," so it's not always just a matter of taking the team you think will win. There has to be some strategy. I can't pick a team I've picked before, but you might not have tailed me, so previously used teams are eligible until the end.

Bye Weeks

My favorite category - picks I can't get wrong! If you don't play, you can't win, but also I won't pick you, so woohoo for easy. Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Philadelphia Eagles Tampa Bay Buccaneers That's four off the board.

Opponent Is Too Good

Maybe these are good teams, maybe not, but it's too hard to trust them given who they are facing. This is a 10-team list every week (fewer when there are byes); we are eliminating anyone facing a top-10 team in our FTN NFL Power Rankings. Arizona Cardinals (vs. LA Rams) Atlanta Falcons (vs. Kansas City) Dallas Cowboys (vs. San Francisco) Las Vegas Raiders (vs. Seattle) Minnesota Vikings (@ Green Bay) New York Jets (vs. Buffalo) Pittsburgh Steelers (@ Cincinnati) Tennessee Titans (vs. Tennessee) Some of these teams will win but you can't confidently say so, considering who they're facing. That's eight more off the board. 20 left.

They're Too Bad

You can face the worst team in all of football, but if you're the second-worst team, well, I'm still not going to be too excited about selecting you. We'll return to the power rankings here and cross off any team in the bottom 12. Baltimore Ravens (vs. LA Chargers) Cleveland Browns (vs. Houston) Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami) Los Angeles Chargers (@ Baltimore) Miami Dolphins (@ Indianapolis) New Orleans Saints (vs. Carolina) Washington Commanders (@ NY Giants) Seven more eliminations leaves us with 13 remaining.

Island Games

Island games just get weird. I would need some very convincing evidence to pick anyone on a Thursday, or a Monday, or an overseas 9:30 a.m. ET game. There aren't many left this week, but I still want to note them. Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Pittsburgh) Detroit Lions (vs. New England in Munich) New England Patriots (vs. Detroit in Munich) New York Giants (vs. Washington) Four more gone, nine left. But this week, we have one extra category.

Trade Deadline Fallout

Either these teams made (or didn't make) big moves at the deadline, or that's true for the opponent. Either way, I want to at least see the teams play before planting my flag.

Green Bay Packers (vs. Minnesota) - Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota Kansas City Chiefs (@ Atlanta) - Could there be WR room turmoil as Josh Downs incorporates? Los Angeles Rams (@ Arizona) - who is catching passes? San Francisco 49ers (@ Las Vegas) - who is catching passes II: electric boogaloo? That's four more gone, which means we are down to five teams, a small list of only five contenders this week.

The Contenders

Once we're down to this small a number of teams, we're done cutting them in swaths. We look at the pros and cons for each team and then figure it out. I'm also diving into our NFL Betting Model to see what the numbers think of the game.

Buffalo Bills (@ NY Jets)

Model Projection: Bills 25.69-22.08, Bills 59.4% win rate Pros: Bills good, Jets bad. Simplistic, but hey, it's true. Cons: Josh Allen has an 85.0 career passer rating against the Jets. The only team he has a worst passer rating against (min. 5 games) is the Ravens, at 82.0. They've had his number more than once.

Carolina Panthers (@ New Orleans)

Model Projection: Panthers 23.90-23.83, Panthers 50.2% win rate Pros: The Panthers are (nominally) in first place in the NFC South. Cons: They're in first place at 3-5. Also at 3-5? The Saints.

Houston Texans (@ Cleveland)

Model Projection: Texans 23.59-19.96, Texans 60.3% win rate Pros: The Texans are charging back after a bad start. Cons: That bad start still counts; they're on all of a one-game winning streak.

Jacksonville Jaguars (@ Tennessee)

Model Projection: Jaguars 26.01-20.38, Jaguars 66.7% win rate Pros: The Jags went all in on a roster that was already maybe the best in the AFC. Cons: Uh... pity?

Seattle Seahawks (@ Las Vegas)

Model Projection: Seahawks 27.46-15.17, Seahawks 81.5% win rate Pros: An excellent defense gets to take on a rookie quarterback making his first start. Cons: If anyone knows how to attack the Seahawks, it would probably be last year's OC, Klint Kubiak.

The PickBuffalo Bills (@ NY Jets)

I'm trusting Josh Allen to shake off any Jets-related cobwebs and beat a team that has played pretty terribly this year. If the Jets lose the next three (Bills, Chargers, Dolphins), does Aaron Glenn get the axe in the Week 13 bye?

Honorable Mention

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Miami) - scary as it is, you'll never get another chance - Kyle McCord is the Miami QB Los Angeles Rams (@ Arizona) - even with no receivers, it's Carson Beck and also no receivers on the other side Seattle Seahawks (@ Las Vegas) - if you didn't use them when I did 2026 record: 6-3 Week 1: Chargers (L) Week 2: Eagles (W) Week 3: Seahawks (L) Week 4: Vikings (W) Week 5: Bengals (W) Week 6: Chiefs (W) Week 7: Texans (L) Week 8: Jaguars (W) Week 9: Lions (W) Week 10: Bills