Who has the edge between the Patriots and Lions?

The New England Patriots had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad day last Sunday against the Green Bay Packers. Unfortunately for them, they might have to wait a bit longer for a reprieve.

Their upcoming opponent, after all, is another one of those pesky NFC North teams. After losses to the Bears and Packers, the Patriots are now taking on the Detroit Lions on the road. Far out on the road, that is: the two teams will play one another in Munich.

How the travel element will impact the game is anybody's guess. Looking at the different units in a vacuum, however, we can see why the Lions entered Week 10 as the betting favorites.

Passing game

Patriots pass offense vs. Lions pass defense: Last week's loss against the Packers once again showed that the Patriots' biggest offensive issue is their inability to hold onto the football, and it starts with Drake Maye: the third-year quarterback's three interceptions put the team on the road to defeat. A repeat performance could be disastrous again, but there is reason for optimism. The Lions are a middle-of-the-road team in interceptions, and generally have been less competitive in coverage than Green Bay: they are ranked only 27th in the league in EPA per dropback (0.178). Obviously, their ability to rush the passer is a concern especially against an offensive line that will once again field a new starting five, but if New England can give Maye time in the pocket he should be able to find openings both with his arm and - going against a defense allowing 8.5 yards per scramble - with his legs. | Edge: Patriots

Patriots pass defense vs. Lions pass offense: The Packers had their way with the Patriots pass defense last week, with just two players - Christian Watson and Matthew Golden - accounting for 335 yards and two touchdowns. Granted, Green Bay's passing offense is the most explosive in the NFL, but the Lions' combination of Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams is capable of exploiting any coverage mishaps or other insufficiencies in the New England backend as well. Add the fact that the Lions offensive line has been very good in pass blocking so far, and even more pressure will be on a secondary that was relentlessly beaten deep last week. While a repeat performance might not be on the schedule this week, until Christian Gonzalez and company show they can bounce back we cannot trust the unit to deliver against another talented opponent. | Edge: Lions

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Running game

Patriots rushing offense vs. Lions run defense: The Lions defense has had its issues this year, but stopping the run is not particularly high up the list: from a statistical perspective, this is a fairly average unit ranked 13th in EPA per run (-0.115) and 17th in yards per attempt (4.1). While that is not exactly earth-shattering, there a two reasons we are giving the edge to the designated home team in this one. Not only have the Lions shown some significant improvement over the last month and are ranked fourth in run defense since Week 6, the Patriots are also entering the matchup potentially missing their top two running backs and, as mentioned above, facing more questions along the offensive line. | Edge: Lions

Patriots run defense vs. Lions rushing offense: The Patriots run defense has rebounded nicely from a relatively rough start to the season, and is ranked fourth in the NFL in EPA per run over the last four weeks (-0.232). However, it might be facing its toughest challenge to date this week. Standout running back Jahmyr Gibbs is one of the NFL's most productive players, and entering Week 10 with 177 rushing attempts for 847 yards and nine touchdowns to his name. His 55 first downs on the ground, meanwhile, are the most in the league. The Patriots need to bring their A-game to prevent him from going over 100 scrimmage yards for a seventh time in nine games this year, but we are not so sure about their ability to do that. | Edge: Lions

Special teams

Even though they lost their regular punt returner, Tom Kennedy, to a knee injury earlier in the year and are now relying on career journeyman and ex-Patriot DeAndre Carter, in that particular area, Detroit still has one of the top overall special teams units in the NFL. The Patriots, on the other hand, have been uneven both in the form of kicker Andy Borregales and, more recently, their kickoff coverage. The law of averages favors the Lions, and so do we. | Edge: Lions

Coaching

The Patriots coaching staff didn't suddenly forget how to coach last week, but it also would be naive to think Mike Vrabel's crew does not deserve any blame either. Like the team itself, its coaches are therefore also in the spotlight this week. That means not just X's and O's, but also preventing pre-snap penalties and communication lapses from happening on both sides of the ball. The same is true for making in-game adjustments and being ready for Detroit to try to exploit the issues that plagued the team last Sunday. | Edge: Lions

Verdict

On paper, things are not looking particularly pretty for the Patriots. That's what happens when you get blown out in your most recent game and looked as vulnerable on defense as you have in multiple years.

Of course, that does not mean the Patriots cannot still travel back to the United States with a victory in their carry-on luggage. However, it goes without saying that it takes a significant improvement on both sides of the ball to put themselves in a winning position. And if the Packers game is any indication, that improvement coming is far from a guarantee.