NFL odds, betting, storylines: 3 underdogs to back in Week 10

Sometimes, the truth hurts. This is one of those times: I misfired on both of my NFL underdog recommendations in Week 9.

Then again, virtually everyone who backed an NFL underdog in Week 9 misfired.

In what proved to be the most lopsided slate of the season to date, favorites last week went 14-1 SU and 11-3-1 ATS.

Following such a beatdown, underdog bettors are left to choose one of two paths: press pause and regroup, or press on and recoup. I'm taking the latter route.

Here are my three NFL underdog best bets for Week 10.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Atlanta Falcons

I acknowledge that the 2026 Atlanta Falcons have been the leading cause of ulcers for NFL bettors.

One week, the Falcons are getting crushed 34-3 by the Panthers at home. Then they're destroying the Packers and Saints in consecutive road games by a combined score of 80-38.

The next week, they're blowing a fourth-quarter lead to the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens and losing in overtime (again at home). Two weeks later, they're handing the 49ers their first loss, while dropping 29 points on one of the NFL's best defenses - promptly followed by two complete duds (a 16-0 loss at Tampa Bay and a 34-17 no-show against the Bengals in Madrid).

So why get involved with a clearly volatile squad? One that has dropped seven straight games to AFC opponents and is now facing the 6-2 Chiefs, who hail from - spoiler alert - the AFC?

Well, for starters, the point spread in this contest is a head-scratcher - just as the 49ers-Falcons point spread was a head-scratcher.

Three weeks ago, San Francisco was 6-0 while Atlanta was coming off back-to-back, near-identical home losses to the Ravens (30-23) and Bears (31-23). Yet the Niners took the field in Atlanta as a scant 2.5-point favorite and lost 29-20.

The oddsmakers were telling us something with that line. And they're doing so again here. Think about it: The Falcons are coming off two losses by a collective score of 50-17. Also, since the calendar flipped to November, they've gone from Atlanta to Tampa Bay to Madrid to Atlanta. So why is this number so short?

I think it's because Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes isn't 100%. He suffered what looked to be an elbow injury in the first half against the Jets last week but played through it. Even healthy, Mahomes has struggled to push the ball down the field. In the past three games, no K.C. wideout has eclipsed 53 receiving yards.

It's also worth noting that only four of the Chiefs' victories have been convincing: 31-10 over Denver in the opener, 24-10 at Miami, 22-6 over the Chargers and 35-12 over the Jets. The Broncos avenged their loss to the Chiefs two weeks ago; the latter three teams have a combined 3-22 record.

If the Falcons have done one thing consistently this season it's showing up when few expect them to. I'm banking on that happening again Sunday afternoon.

Bet: Falcons +3.5

Jacksonville Jaguars (-10.5) vs. Tennessee Titans

I'm not about to claim the Tennessee Titans - who are 7-35 since the 2024 season kicked off - have turned the corner. But they at least have shown a pulse over the last month.

Here's what Tennessee has done since opening the season with five straight losses:

A come-from-behind 26-20 victory at Indianapolis (outscoring the Colts 26-7 in the second half); a 27-24 home loss to Cleveland (a game the Titans led 14-0 and tied up with 58 seconds to play); and a 43-36 overtime loss at Cincinnati (the Bengals were 13.5-point favorites, the biggest spread in the NFL this season).

Much-maligned Titans quarterback Cam Ward threw for 304 yards in Cincinnati (besting his previous career high by 39 yards), and the offense produced a season-high 440 yards (after posting a season-high 322 yards against Cleveland the previous week).

Obviously - as Tennessee is well aware - this week's opponent is no joke. The Jaguars are 6-2. They have the No. 2-ranked scoring defense (15.4 points per game) and the No. 4-ranked scoring offense (28.6 ppg). And they just posted two victories over the Colts and Ravens by the combined score of 75-17 (hence their NFL-best plus-108 point differential, which is 29 points better than any other team).

Beyond all that, Jacksonville has taken seven of the last eight meetings against the Titans, winning and covering the last four in a row.

Again, though, Tennessee - which had a bye last week - has been feisty lately. Also, with their competitive overtime loss to the Bengals, the 2026 Titans improved to 4-1 ATS as an underdog of more than six points (including 2-0 ATS as a double-digit 'dog).

Finally, prior to last week's underdog blood bath, the biggest NFL favorite of the week had been just 4-4 SU and 2-6 ATS, with five straight non-covers. And for the season, double-digit favorites are just 2-5 ATS (and, to repeat, 0-2 ATS versus Tennessee).

Bet: Titans +10.5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5)

Are the Bengals - and particularly Joe Burrow - on fire right now? Yep. Have Burrow and his mates had this game circled on the calendar since suffering an upset loss at Pittsburgh 2 months ago? No doubt about it.

But here's what else is true: That aforementioned near-loss at home to the Titans was just two weeks ago. More importantly, this is a terrible situational spot for Cincinnati, which faced Atlanta in Madrid last week while the Steelers enjoyed the week off.

Not only do the Steelers come into this Sunday Night Football game rested, but like Cincinnati, they're 6-2. And like Cincinnati, they're riding a four-game winning streak.

Unlike the Bengals, Pittsburgh covered the point spread in all four of those recent wins (Cincy is 2-1-1 ATS). And unlike the Bengals, Pittsburgh's defense is legit.

The Steelers surrender just 18 points and 305.6 yards per game, figures that respectively rank fourth and seventh in the NFL. And during the team's four-game heater, the defense has gotten increasingly stingier, allowing 22, 19, 10 and six points.

Granted, the four offenses Pittsburgh faced - Indianapolis, Tampa Bay, New Orleans and Cleveland - aren't in the same league as the Bengals. And, yes, back in Week 3 at Pittsburgh, the Bengals put up 27 points and 352 yards with Burrow posting excellent numbers (28-for-37 for 282 yards, three touchdowns, zero interceptions).

However, the Steelers put up 30 points and a still-season-high 411 yards that day. And old-man Aaron Rodgers (19-for-34, 292 yards, three TDs, one INT) was nearly as good as Burrow. Which brings me back to this point: The Bengals' defense remains untrustworthy (just ask Cam Ward).

Cincinnati very well may get its revenge in this one. But the Steelers will at least cover the spread - as they have in six of the last seven meetings in this rivalry.

Bet: Steelers +3.5

LAST WEEK: 0-2

SEASON: 10-13