NFL betting, odds, lines: Betting trends to know for Week 10's biggest games

It's always dicey to conjoin the words reliable" and trends." After all, it creates no less of an oxymoron than living dead."

Look no further than this recent NFL betting trends development: From Weeks 3-6, underdogs went 36-22-3 against the spread. However, the script has since flipped, with favorites going 27-15-1 ATS the past three weeks (including a season-best 11-3-1 ATS in Week 9).

The topsy-turvy nature of the season ultimately has led to this fitting nugget: Through the first 136 games, favorites have covered 66 times, underdogs have covered 66 times and four contests have pushed.

Does that mean we've reached the season's midpoint with zero reliable trends"? Hardly. The Broncos (somehow) keep producing profits (NFL-best 7-2 ATS); the winless Chargers continue to Charger (0-7-1 ATS); and the all-defense, no-offense Vikings continue to be an under bettor's dream.

Want the precise details on the latter? They're included in my latest NFL betting trends report that highlights the five best Week 10 matchups.

Patriots vs. Lions (-2.5, 51), in Munich

Moneyline: Patriots +130/Lions -155

Detroit carries a four-game winning streak into Germany, most recently toppling the Dolphins 19-9 as a 6.5-point road favorite.

The Lions - who opened the season 0-3-1 ATS - have covered in three of four games during their current run, with the lone point spread misstep by a half point (20-17 win over Green Bay as a 3.5-point favorite).

New England has alternated wins and losses the past four weeks, but failed to cover the spread in any of those games - including last week's 45-27 blowout loss to the Packers as a 3-point home chalk.

The Patriots' ongoing four-game point spread slump follows a scintillating 19-5 regular season ATS romp from Week 3 last year through Week 5 this year. New England's last 0-5 ATS slide: Weeks 3-7 in 2024.

Surprisingly, Detroit's defense has carried the load the last four weeks, giving up 21, 17, 15 and nine points. That 15.5 points-per-game average is down from the 31.8 PPG the Lions allowed in the first four contests.

Conversely, the usually high-octane offense has been stuck in neutral the last three weeks, scoring 20, 19 and 19 points. It's the same offense that averaged 33 PPG in the first five games.

The last time Detroit scored fewer than 21 points in four straight: a 10-game stretch from Weeks 2-12 of 2021. The last time the defense yielded 21 points or fewer in five straight: an eight-game span from Weeks 7-15 in 2016.

New England's last six games have hurdled the closing total, with four topping 53 combined points. That's in sharp contrast to the Patriots' first three outings, all of which stayed low and ended with 23, 23 and 41 total points.

Meanwhile, Detroit's totals trends have gone in the opposite direction: The first five games featured 61, 72, 55, 58 and 66 combined points (all flew over the total). Final scores in the Lions' last three contests: 20-17, 19-15 and 19-9.

This is the penultimate game of the 2026 NFL international slate. So far, favorites are 5-2 SU on foreign soil but just 3-4 ATS.

On the totals front, five of the seven international games have fallen short of the closing number, including four of five played in Europe.

Chiefs (-3.5, 45.5) at Falcons

Moneyline: Chiefs -180/Falcons +155

Kansas City rebounded from its first two defeats of 2026 - road losses to the Seahawks and Broncos - with a 35-12 rout of the Jets as a 9-point home favorite in Week 9.

Not only did the Chiefs hold New York out of the end zone, they have now surrendered fewer than 13 points on four occasions this season.

Atlanta returns home after getting torched by the Bengals in Madrid, falling 34-17 as a 3.5-point underdog.

Since scoring road upsets of Green Bay (35-14) and New Orleans (45-24) in consecutive primetime games, the Falcons are 1-4 SU/ATS. The one positive: a 29-20 Week 7 upset of San Francisco, still the 49ers' only defeat of the season.

Since beating the Dolphins 24-10 as a 9.5-point favorite in their road opener in Week 3, the Chiefs have gone 0-3 ATS as a visitor.

In addition to the back-to-back losses in Seattle and Denver, Kansas City came up short as a 4.5-point favorite in a 33-30 win at Las Vegas in Week 6.

Atlanta will take the field as an underdog Sunday for the ninth time in 10 games this season. So far, the Falcons are 3-5 SU and ATS when catching points, including 1-2 SU and ATS at home.

Also, since upsetting Buffalo 24-14 as a 3.5-point home underdog in Week 6 last season, Atlanta has lost seven straight games to AFC opponents (2-5 ATS).

The point spread in this game brings this NFL betting trend into play: Over the past three weeks, favorites of 3.5 points or less are 16-7 SU and 15-8 ATS.

Atlanta has followed a 4-0 over stretch with a three-game under streak. However, five of the Falcons' last seven contests have reached at least 49 points.

The Chiefs have stayed low in three of their last four, although Patrick Mahomes and Co. have put up at least 24 points six times in eight games.

Vikings at Packers (-3.5, 41.5)

Moneyline: Vikings +145/Packers -175

Two weeks ago, Minnesota was the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 6-0 - part of an 11-game winning streak dating to last season.

However, the Vikings have since dropped two in a row to Detroit (19-15 on the road) and Buffalo (23-6 at home), both as a 3.5-point underdog.

After starting the season 3-0 ATS, Minnesota has burned bettors in four of its last five (including three in a row).

Green Bay delivered the NFL's lone upset in Week 9, traveling to New England and crushing the Patriots 45-27 as a 3-point underdog.

Since starting 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS, the Packers have been scalding hot both between the lines (5-1 SU) and in the wagering department (6-0 ATS).

During this stretch, Green Bay has won and covered three straight at Lambeau Field, dusting the Bears (31-7), Cowboys (23-13) and Panthers (27-19).

The Vikings kicked off 2026 with a 39-22 rout of Green Bay, rallying from a 22-10 third-quarter deficit by scoring the final 29 points. In all, Minnesota tallied five touchdowns in Week 1.

Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins speaks during an NFL football press conference, Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2026, in Eagan, Minn., the day after being traded to the team by the Las Vegas Raiders. AP Photo/Abbie Parr

From there, the Vikings have averaged just 15.3 PPG - failing to top 23 points in any game - and the offense has scored only six touchdowns.

Going back to the 2023-24 campaign, Minnesota has won five of seven against the Packers (4-3 ATS). However, the home team is on a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS roll in this rivalry.

There is one NFL betting trend that suggests this NFC North battle won't be very competitive: Eight of the last 10 Packers-Vikings clashes have been double-digit blowouts, with all eight decided by at least 13 points.

Thanks to their fourth-quarter offensive outburst, the Vikings' opener against Green Bay flew past the 45.5-point closing total.

Since then, Minnesota has stayed under the total in seven straight games, none of which reached 40 combined points. Final scores: 9-3, 23-16, 15-10, 23-13, 16-10, 19-15 and 23-6.

With a season-high 45 points at New England, the Packers reached the closing total all by themselves last week, thus snapping a five-game under streak.

49ers (-4, 55.5) at Cowboys

Moneyline: 49ers +210/Cowboys +175

San Francisco emerged from its bye last week, raced out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead against the Raiders and cruised to a 38-17 victory as an 8.5-point home favorite.San Francisco (7-1) joins Buffalo as the NFL's lone one-loss teams entering Week 10.

Dallas' roller-coaster 2026 season continued in Week 9 with a roller-coaster of a game at Indianapolis.

The Cowboys overcame an early 7-3 deficit and a late 23-20 hole, scoring a touchdown with 68 seconds to play to pull out a 27-23 victory.

Dallas pushed as a 4-point favorite against the Colts and is now 1-3-1 ATS in its last five. It also hasn't posted consecutive outright victories since a three-game winning streak from Weeks 11-13 last season - a span of 14 contests.

Two NFL betting trends suggest that San Francisco's only road trip in November - and just its third true road game so far this season - will be a success.

First, the 49ers are 4-0 SU/ATS against the Cowboys dating to a 2021-22 postseason clash. Also, NFL favorites of four points or more are 18-1 the past three weeks (12-7-1 ATS).

In its two most recent home games, Dallas suffered stunning losses to then-winless Tampa Bay (24-16 as a 9.5-point favorite) and Arizona (33-30 in overtime as a 7.5-point chalk).

Then again, since Week 15 of 2024, the Cowboys are 10-3 ATS as an underdog (6-6-1 SU) - including 5-0 ATS as a home pup (3-1-1 SU).

This clash of longtime NFC rivals boasts the highest total in Week 10.

Worth noting: The over is 6-3 in Cowboys games this season (2-1 at home), with five games clearing 55 points. Also, Dallas is averaging 27.3 PPG (sixth best in the NFL) and allowing 26.2 PPG (seventh most).

And while only half of its eight games have topped the total, San Francisco has scored an NFL-best 31 touchdowns and boasts the third-best scoring offense (29.4 PPG).

However, the Niners' defense has only been torched three times, allowing 30 points to Arizona and 29 each to Seattle and Atlanta. No other opponent has tallied more than 17 points.

Steelers at Bengals (-3.5, 49.5)

Moneyline: Steelers +155/Bengals -185

First place in the AFC North is up for grabs Sunday night, as the Bengals (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) host the Steelers (6-2 SU and ATS) in a matchup of rivals riding four-game winning streaks.

It's also a rematch of a Week 3 showdown in Pittsburgh, which the Steelers won 30-27 as a 3.5-point underdog. With that upset, Pittsburgh moved to 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven against the Bengals.

Another rivalry-related NFL betting trend that favors the Steelers based on this week's point spread: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings with four outright upsets (three of them delivered by Pittsburgh).

The Steelers waltzed into their Week 9 bye after a 27-6 thrashing of the Browns as a 3.5-point home favorite.

That followed SU and ATS victories over the Colts at home (34-22), Buccaneers on the road (26-19 in overtime) and Saints in Paris (16-10). In fact, the SU winner is 8-0 ATS in Pittsburgh's games this season.

The Bengals followed the Steelers' Week 8 European visit with one of their own, traveling to Madrid in Week 9 and blasting the Falcons 34-17 as a 3.5-point favorite.

With Joe Burrow accounting for 18 total touchdowns (16 passing, two rushing), Cincinnati has averaged 35.8 points during its four-game heater, topping 30 in each contest.

Still, the Bengals have only managed to go 2-1-1 ATS over the past month. And they're 2-3-1 ATS as a favorite going back to the Week 3 loss at Pittsburgh.

Five of Cincinnati's eight games have soared past 50 total points, including two of three at home.

Conversely, only three Steelers games have cleared 45 points, and all were in a row from Weeks 3-5: 30-27 win over Cincinnati, 27-24 loss at Cleveland and 34-22 win over the Colts.

Finally, the over is 4-1 this decade when these teams have squared off in Cincinnati. Three of those contests eclipsed 49 total points.