2026 College Football Week 11 Expert Picks: What To Make Of USC-Indiana

I've been a good amount of time figuring out how to make sense of the USC-Indiana game, and the line that comes along with it. Here is how I'm wagering college football Week 11. This page may contain affiliate links to legal sports betting partners. If you sign up or place a wager, FOX Sports may be compensated. Read more about Sports Betting on FOX Sports. Where do I begin with this game? Indiana was sitting comfortably as a 7.5-point favorite until the middle of the day on Wednesday, when the number jumped to Indiana favored by 10. There's no USC injury news far as anyone can tell. The Trojans released their injury availability report after practice and quarterback Jayden Maiava is nowhere to be found. So, as of writing this, Indiana remains a 10-point favorite. IU is not the same team that won the championship last season. It is still outstanding on defense - first in yards per play and fourth in points per drive. No offense it has faced has played up its standard against this Hoosiers defense. On the other side is the Indiana offense, which is far different than the championship group with Fernando Mendoza last season. Josh Hoover transferred to Indiana, and he's been inconsistent to the point where he was benched in the Hoosiers' last game. He's also not 100 percent, so that might have played a role in his benching. In addition, the Indiana rushing attack is 79th in success rate after being one of the top groups last season. USC is the same team under Lincoln Riley for the fifth season in a row - outstanding on offense at home, less outstanding on the road. The defense is more talented this season but still rather awful, sitting 88th in yards per play and 104th in points per drive. The defense is also bad in the red zone and poor defending the pass. USC still struggles to perform outside of Southern California, as evidenced by its 24-7 loss to Wisconsin just three weeks ago. Everything would point to Indiana winning this game by margin, using its defense and going against a bad USC defense. However, once again, the number is now 10. If it was 7/7.5, I'd be all over Indiana. So, as a result, I'm going to target a prop in this one. Lee Beebe Jr. is going to get a bulk of the Indiana carries with his partner in the backfield, Turbo Richard, being out for this game. The Hoosiers are going to look to control the line of scrimmage early and own the physicality of this game. It will also help Indiana's quarterback situation to run the ball well. USC allowed Ohio State's bland rushing attack to gain over 200 yards, with Bo Jackson accounting for 121 rushing yards. The previous week, Wisconsin's top running back gained 71 yards on 18 carries. I like Indiana's rushing attack to come alive. This is a spot I've played all season: a ranked team off an emotional home win on the road against a conference opponent. Utah beat its bitter rival BYU last weekend at home. The crowd stormed the field. Utah is one of the last two unbeaten teams in the country. Such an emotional high for the program. Now, the Utes travel to Arizona and are just under a field-goal favorite. The state of Arizona has taken the soul of many highly-ranked teams in November, and Utah has struggled to play well in the desert as well. All signs are pointing towards Arizona winning this game. However, I can't quite get there. I think Utah is a far better team than Arizona and the Utes' style of play makes it difficult to have major let-down spots. Arizona is good but not great. It has played two teams in its weight category and lost both of them by double digits. And last week, Arizona was fairly lucky to beat TCU. Utah wants to run the football and some of the advanced numbers on the Wildcats' run defense worry me. Arizona doesn't stop the running back at the line of scrimmage - poor stuff rate and yards before contact numbers for the defense. The Wildcats are not great on third down, and if you allow some early-down rushing yards, you're in trouble against Utah in shorter third-down situations. I think Utah's offense will control the tempo of the game on its side of the ball. Arizona's passing offense is excellent while its rushing offense is below average. That profiles well for Utah, which has a passing defense that is better than its rushing defense. It does concern me that the Utes' pass rush can go quiet for long periods and that should allow Arizona QB Noah Fifita to get it going through the air. However, in the end, I'm going to fade the public 'dog in Arizona and ride with the better team.