Unmanned Russian cargo spacecraft is falling to Earth – live

All the latest developments as Progress M-27M vessel, which was carrying supplies to the International Space Station, is said to be out of control

5.09pm BST

The Russian space agency has conceded its out-of-control cargo spacecraft will not be able to dock with the International Space Station.

Because of this, the craft's continued flight and its docking with the ISS is not possible.

3.52pm BST

Astronauts Scott Kelly and Mikhail Kornienko, current crew members on board the International Space Station, have said flight controllers have given up trying to command the out-of-control cargo carrier.

We should be OK.The program plans for these kinds of things to happen. They're very unfortunate when they do. The important thing is hardware can be replaced.

3.46pm BST

Our Moscow correspondent Shaun Walker says representatives of Roskosmos, the Russian space agency, are holding a press briefing in the Russian capital. We're waiting for further details on who is speaking but we have these initial remarks from one of the representatives:

It's impossible to say who or what is responsible for this at this point. There will be a state commission which will meet to discuss all the issues around further launches. The next launch is due on 26 May.

A safe docking with the ISS is not possible. We are working out different options for a water landing.

3.34pm BST

The total financial hit from the failed launch of Progress 59 could reach 5 billion rubles (62 million), according to the Russian news agency Interfax, as quoted in the Moscow Times. It adds:

This loss may only be partially covered: sources in major insurance companies told the agency that the ship was insured to the tune of 2 billion rubles (25 million).

3.12pm BST

My colleague Ian Sample has more from ESA director Thomas Reiter.

Reiter said he had instructed the space agency's European Space Operations Centre in Darmstadt, Germany, to track the spacecraft so that teams can predict when and where the spacecraft will come down if it cannot be rescued.

The spacecraft is 160 miles high and travelling at more than 16,000mph. That altitude is sufficiently below the space station to pose the crew no problems, but some satellites might need to take evasive manoeuvres. Such moves were becoming ever more necessary in space, said Reiter.

3.02pm BST

Nasa has just issued this brief update:

Docking has been called off for the Progress 59 spacecraft. Russian flight controllers are continuing to assess the vehicle and what the plan going forward will be. Additional information will be provided as it becomes available.

2.44pm BST

So there's a distinct possibility the Progress 59 spacecraft could be orbiting Earth for more than a week.

I'm starting to wonder if I'm on course to set a new live-blogging record.

2.40pm BST

My colleague Ian Sample has more from ESA director of human spaceflight and operations Thomas Reiter. The former astronaut says:

Re-entry is normally done over the south Pacific in order to avoid any debris falling on firm terrain.

Not everything will burn up and if it's an uncontrolled entry then there will be fragments that will hit the surface.

2.16pm BST

Thomas Reiter, director of human spaceflight and operations at the European Space Agency, just told me that if the Russians cannot regain control over the spacecraft, it could be up there for a week and a half max.

Normally, these vessels are jettisoned on controlled re-entry paths over the south Pacific, so that any fragments that survive burnup land in the ocean. This would be an uncontrolled re-entry, so some pieces could make it to land.

2.07pm BST

An unmanned Russian cargo spacecraft plunging back to Earth and apparently out of control has passed over southern England. Here's what we know so far:

1.52pm BST

My colleague James Ball has found this interesting article looking at the odds of getting struck by a falling satellite.

The odds someone will be hit by the falling Russian spacecraft (if it doesn't totally burn up): 1 in 3,200 - http://t.co/J3niuWD3D1

The odds *you* will be hit by the falling Russian spacecraft, incidentally, are nearer 1 in 2.2 trillion. So don't worry too much.

1.51pm BST

Satellite tracking websites Satflare and N2YO both show Progress 59's trajectory passing over southern England and London.

Travelling at around 4.64 miles per second, nearly 17,000mph, it is currently over the North Atlantic ocean.

1.28pm BST

Astronaut Chris Hadfield, who commanded the ISS on his last mission before retirement, says the Progress spacecraft will slowly fall to Earth and burn up.

Tumbling to Earth - Mission Control Moscow has had no luck contacting the Progress. It'll now slowly fall & burn up. pic.twitter.com/lbkJZq36bM

It's too soon to be able to predict where it will enter the atmosphere, but Roscosmos and NASA/NORAD will be tracking it closely.

1.23pm BST

Progress 59 had no technical issues when it launched from the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on Tuesday.

Here's a Guardian video of the launch:

1.03pm BST

A statement released overnight by the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) in the US says the Progress 59 spacecraft is rotating at a rate of 360 degrees every five seconds.

JSpOC, located at Vandenberg air force base in California, also says there are 44 pieces of debris in the vicinity of the cargo vehicle and part of the rocket body.

Human spaceflight safety is our chief concern. We will continue to monitor the situation and work with our government, international and industry partners to ensure the safety of the astronauts on board the ISS and provide for the long-term safety, sustainability, security and stability of the space domain.

12.52pm BST

You can track Progress 59 as it orbits the Earth using N2YO, a real-time satellite mapping tool, here. At the time of writing, the spacecraft appears to be over Borneo.

12.37pm BST

Nasa have provided an image of the previous cargo spacecraft - Progress 47 - docked at the International Space Station before it left on Saturday.

Progress 59, now tumbling to the Earth, was scheduled to dock with the same berthing location.

12.32pm BST

Here's a brief piece by Alan Pickup on supply missions to the International Space Station. He writes:

Progress craft maintain an important lifeline, being responsible for about half of the flights over the past two years.

12.25pm BST

US space agency Nasa last provided an update at 4am UK time explaining that Russian flight controllers were continuing attempts to communicate with the Progress 59 cargo spacecraft as it made additional passes over Russian ground stations.

Russian flight controllers resume troubleshooting #ISScargo craft tonight during passes over ground stations: http://t.co/J6nmsSRieA

12.17pm BST

Here's a link to the full article on the Progress 59 cargo spacecraft's descent to Earth.

An earlier report explained Russia was trying to make contact with the unmanned ship after communications were lost following its launch.

The Progress capsule is circling the Earth in radio silence, carrying three tons of food and supplies for the astronauts living at the ISS.

None of the equipment on board was critical for the US segment of the ISS, and the astronauts have plenty of provisions, enough to last for months, officials at Nasa said.

12.10pm BST

An unmanned Russian cargo spacecraft ferrying supplies to the International Space Station is plunging back to Earth and apparently out of control, according to AFP.

The news agency has quoted an unnamed official familiar with the situation as saying:

It has started descending. It has nowhere else to go. It is clear that absolutely uncontrollable reactions have begun.

#BREAKING Unmanned Russian spacecraft plunging to Earth: official

The Russians are trying to re-establish contact with the Progress 59 cargo vessel as it hurtles over ground stations, but they struggling because the 2.5 tonne spacecraft is tumbling. If they can't regain control the spacecraft will come down. But little, if any, of the vessel will survive re-entry into Earth's atmosphere. These cargo vessels take supplies like food and fuel up to the International Space Station. But once they are unloaded, they are jettisoned and left to disintegrate as they heat up on re-entry. Any parts that do survive the inferno are most likely to end up in ocean or in one of Earth's great wastelands.