The incumbency effect: the psychology behind why safe-seats are ‘safe’

Even in an election where the outcome is so uncertain, it seems that over half the parliamentary seats in the UK are winnable only by one party. Why?

Safe seats. The "dark matter" of the UK political system; rarely observed, but their presence and influence dictates how everything else works. Safe seats are parliamentary seats where there is little to no chance of anyone but the party that has held it for years actually winning it. Estimates state that over half the parliamentary seats in the UK are safe seats. That's over half of the UK political landscape that is essentially frozen in place. But whereas dark matter seems to be an integral component of the structure of the universe, safe seats arguably hinder democracy, restricting the whole process of deciding a government to a narrower pool of more uncertain regions, like a dead sheep lodged in an irrigation channel.

But this is arguably an unfair assessment, and not just for sheep. Safe seats are still elected by the local population, there's no rule saying they can't elect anyone else, however much those in power would like there to be. Safe seats are safe because thousands of people vote reliably and consistently each time the opportunity arises. Why would they do this? As with anything involving large groups of people, there are numerous possible explanations.