NFL opening line report: Sharps cause massive movement in Week 1 betting lines
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The long national nightmare is almost over. Real, meaningful NFL games start this week, and thankfully we only have to wait until Thursday for the first regular season contest. Covers checks in on opening lines and early action for four key matchups, with insights from Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-7)
New England is coming off a historic Super Bowl comeback, rallying from a 28-3 deficit to beat the Atlanta Falcons 34-28 in overtime and cash as a 3-point favorite. In fact, the Patriots were tops in the league SU and ATS in 2016, going 17-2 SU and an equally superb 16-3 ATS, winning their last 10 SU while covering in nine of those contests.
Kansas City won the AFC West last year on a tiebreaker with the Oakland Raiders, earning a first-round bye. But the Chiefs' playoff stint was short-lived, as they lost to Pittsburgh 18-16 laying 2.5 points at home to finish 12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS.
Bookmaker.eu first posted NFL Week 1 lines back in April, and bettors have since pushed the defending champs to -8 for the Thursday night season opener.
"Steady action on New England over the last few months has caused this number to tick upward, but I don't expect it to be north of a touchdown come Thursday," Cooley said. "The sharps are likely going to wait and see how high the public can push it, and then start picking off the numbers. (Chiefs coach) Andy Reid is great with time to prepare, and I wouldn't be surprised one bit at an outright upset."
Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers (-3)
A couple of perennial NFC powerhouses collide in Week 1 at Lambeau Field. Green Bay won its last six regular-season games in 2016 to claim the NFC North, then made a run to the conference title game before getting dumped at Atlanta 44-21 as a 6.5-point pup. The Pack finished the season 12-7 SU (11-7-1 ATS).
Seattle (11-5-2 SU, 9-9 ATS) won the NFC West in 2016, then rolled Detroit 26-6 as an 8-point favorite on wild-card weekend. But like Green Bay, the Seahawks' season ended at the hands of Atlanta, 36-20 as a 6.5-point road pup.
Bookmaker.eu's opening line of Green Bay -3 was up to 3.5 most of the past couple of weeks, but dropped back to 3 Saturday.
"We've seen smart money on the 'dog side in the last 24 hours, so we are back to the opener," Cooley said. "It's going to be the afternoon game every bettor tunes in to, and more than likely as we move toward Sunday, we'll need the Seahawks to come out on top. Really looking forward to this one to get an early gauge on these elite teams."
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Dallas is currently embroiled in Ezekiel Elliott's appeal of a six-game suspension, hoping to have the star running back on the field for this NFC East prime-time showdown on Sunday night. Behind Elliott and rookie QB Dak Prescott last season, the Cowboys had an 11-game winning streak and covered the first nine of those. Dallas earned a first-round playoff bye, but finished 13-4 SU (10-7 ATS) after a 34-31 loss to Green Bay giving 5.5 points at home in the divisional round.
New York went 11-5 SU (9-6-1 ATS) in the 2016 regular season to nab a wild-card berth, then lost at Green Bay 38-13 as a 5-point dog.
Bookmaker.eu opened Dallas at -6.5. That number is down to 3.5 and could be headed lower still.
"This line is off the board now, as we continue to wait for news on one key injury and one key suspension," Cooley said, pointing not only to Elliott's status, but that of Giants wideout Odell Beckham (ankle). "Professional bettors came out early and often for this one, as this number dipped down to -3.5 prior to the unknown status of Beckham and Elliott. If Elliott is in fact out for Week 1, we will likely reopen at -3. The public will be all over Dallas, no matter who is playing."
Oakland Raiders at Tennessee Titans (+1.5)
Oakland had a stout 2016 regular season, going 12-4 SU (10-6 ATS), but quarterback Derek Carr broke his leg in the second-to-last game. That was key to the Raiders losing their regular-season finale at Denver, which relegated them to a wild-card berth and a road playoff game. They subsequently lost at Houston 27-14 getting 4 points.
Tennessee went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) last year, winning four of its last five to tie Houston atop the mediocre AFC South. But the Titans lost the tiebreaker and therefore stayed home for the playoffs. Coincidentally, the same week Carr broke his leg, Titans QB Marcus Mariota also suffered a broken leg.
Both QBs are back at the helm for this season opener, but bettors are leaning on Mariota, with this game jumping the fence from Oakland -1.5 to Tennessee -2.
"A big swing in this one, as the Titans have gone from 'dogs to favorites, and it's all sharp money shaping this one," Cooley said. "The ticket count on Oakland is higher, but the money on Tennessee is very heavy. We do expect this to come back down before reaching the key number, but unless we see a lot of square Raider money this weekend, we'll need the visitor in a big way."
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