Sage Rosenfels column: Big Ben seals loss, playoff picture clears up
It was an extremely busy weekend around the NFL. While there are still 20 teams with a statistical chance of getting into the playoffs, Sunday's games had a huge impact on what the postseason will look like.
Here's a look at what went down in Week 15:
Patriots-Steelers an instant classicExpected to be the game of the year, Patriots vs. Steelers lived up to the hype and then some. There's a lot to digest from this game, and I'd like to analyze two key plays on the Steelers' final drive.
First, the Jesse James catch/no-catch was an easy call if you've followed the NFL rules since the Calvin Johnson no-catch in 2010. Since then, I've taken the approach that the pass-catcher should assume they need to have the ball fully secured until they give it to the official. Anything short of that gives the refs the power to make it an incomplete pass.
On this play, James secured the ball, but as he reached over the goal line, it was jarred loose by the ground and became unstable in his hands. Based off the last seven-plus years of this rule being enforced, I believed it would be called an incomplete pass the second I saw the replay. I had the exact same feeling when Dez Bryant infamously "dropped" the game-winning touchdown in the playoffs in 2015 against the Packers.
James, Megatron, and Bryant all had similar plays with the same result. I believe I'm in the minority, but I think the correct call was made each time. In all three, the ball became loose as it hit the ground and the player didn't secure the ball completely "through the catch."
I also like the fact that the NFL tried to remove gray areas as it relates to the criteria of a completed pass. Football is a sport with dozens of bang-bang plays every game. In this situation, though it looks, smells, and feels like a catch, based off the rules, which have been interpreted fairly consistently over the last eight seasons, it definitely wasn't.
Even with the play being overturned, the Steelers were in the driver's seat to win this game. At worst, they were going to tie it up and send it to overtime if the offense was unsuccessful on second and third down. Of course, Ben Roethlisberger's interception sealed Pittsburgh's fate.
I was disappointed by Big Ben's comments in his press conference regarding the game-ending throw. He said the call to use a fake spike and throw the ball into the end zone came from the sidelines. I have no doubt this is true, and it's the right call by Tomlin's staff. The Steelers had time, and an extra down, to run a play on third before kicking a field goal on fourth.
At the end of the day, the ball is in the quarterback's hands. As the clock was running down, there was enough time for Ben to call a multitude of passing plays and take a shot into the end zone. Any quarterback in that situation knows that if a receiver isn't open, they must quickly and safely get rid of the ball while not getting sacked.
The Steelers should have called for fade routes by the outside receivers. If he had a good matchup, Ben would've taken the snap and immediately tossed one up for his best receiver to make a play for the win. If the outside players were doubled, he could have just spiked the ball or thrown it high and wide out of bounds. There was plenty of time for him to make a good decision after his second-down completion, which resulted in a running clock.
Roethlisberger instead called a slant by his "Z" receiver. Because of the Patriots' defensive alignment, it was covered. He should've immediately tossed the ball out of the back of the end zone. Instead, he tried to force it into triple coverage. The result was a game-ending interception.
Ben's answer to the media should've been simple. Yes, he was told to throw the ball instead of spiking it, but he should've stated that after the original read wasn't there, it was his responsibility to safely get rid of it. That didn't happen, and it surely isn't Todd Haley or Mike Tomlin's fault.
The Steelers lost not because of a play call, but because their veteran quarterback failed to execute. If the situation was flipped and the ball was in Tom Brady's hands, I assume a quality passing play would've been called, which would've given Brady options to throw for the win. This is the difference between Belichick's team and everyone else in the league.
The Patriots and Steelers have identical records at 11-3, with the Pats now owning the tiebreaker. If both teams win their last two games, the Patriots will again have home-field advantage. Belichick's team has the Bills, who need to win their final two games to get into the playoffs, and the Jets. Tomlin's squad will play the Texans and Browns.
Over the course of their New England careers, Belichick and Brady have won numerous games that were similar to Sunday's come-from-behind victory. They constantly find ways to manage the end of games better than their opponent.
NFC playoffs will be up for grabs
While the AFC has two teams which are a class above the rest, the NFC is wide open. It would surprise nobody if any of the six teams currently in the playoffs represented the NFC in the Super Bowl.
The Eagles have been the best team in the NFC all year, but they have two glaring issues. First, and most obvious: how far can Nick Foles take them? He played very well against a poor Giants team, but the Eagles won't play games against poor teams come January. Each of the next two games is vital for Foles to become more comfortable in Doug Pederson's offense.
Just as concerning is the Eagles' defense the last few weeks. Jim Schwartz's unit has given up an average of 28 points per game in its last three outings. Football teams with porous defenses rarely go far in the playoffs, especially those starting their backup quarterback.
This is the main difference between the Eagles and one of their biggest playoff threats, the Vikings. Mike Zimmer's defense is one of the best in the league, and is playing at a high level late in the season. In their last three games, which featured Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and Andy Dalton as opposing quarterbacks, the Vikings gave up an average of 139 passing yards per game. By contrast, the Eagles gave up 429 passing yards against Eli Manning and the receiver-bereft Giants on Sunday.
NFC South is loaded
Three teams in the NFC South are currently in the playoffs. I'd be surprised if that's the case through week 17, as all three of these teams only play NFC South opponents the last two weeks of the regular season. If any of the three lose two of their remaining games, the Lions, Seahawks, and Cowboys could sneak in. Atlanta has the least room for error, as they have five losses.
The Carolina Panthers just won two huge games against the Vikings and Packers, but there's a cloud over them. The Panthers recently announced that owner Jerry Richardson would sell the team after the final game of 2017.
It was widely known that the Panthers would be sold if/when Richardson passed away. He has had myriad health issues recently, and there was no plan in place for him to pass the team down to family members. But the sale at this moment looks more like Richardson attempting to save his legacy as the original owner of the Panthers.
On Friday, the team announced he was being investigated by another Panthers co-owner for "misconduct." The wording was vague for a reason. Richardson is being investigated for sexual harassment, among other things. The optics of having a co-owner lead the investigation were so bad the NFL decided to take over the process. Within 48 hours, the Panthers were up for sale.
Though Ron Rivera will say this front-office drama won't affect what the Panthers do on the field, this type of distraction does have an impact. It's an awkward situation for the players to be in, and it's occurring at the most important time of the season. Coaches and general managers talk about eliminating distractions. This one will last until the Panthers play their final game.
AFC playoff race is tightening
In the AFC, the Ravens are 8-6 and currently outside the playoff picture, but they'll probably get in. Their remaining games are against the Colts and Browns, two of the league's worst teams.
The Bills are in the playoffs but must play the Patriots next week. Even though New England has locked up the AFC East, it has to win its final two games to have home-field advantage. This isn't good news for Buffalo.
The Titans, who have the same record as the Ravens, still have to play the Rams and Jaguars. They have the hardest schedule remaining of any team in the NFL.
If the Titans or Bills lose a game, and the Ravens win out, we'll see Joe Flacco in the playoffs once again.
Sage Rosenfels is a former 12-year NFL quarterback who writes, does radio, and podcasts about the NFL and college football. Find him on Twitter @SageRosenfels18.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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