A Saturday of NFL upsets leads to a wild-card Sunday of uncertainty at sportsbooks
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With two upsets already in the books, the NFL playoffs head into the second day of wild card games. Covers checks in on the action for today's two matchups, with insights from Will Bernanke, lead analyst for CG Analytics in Las Vegas, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for Bookmaker.eu.
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -9; Move: -8.5; Move: -8; Move: -9; Move: -7.5; Move: -8.5; Move: -9
Jacksonville, the AFC's No. 3 seed, had a nice run starting at midseason, going 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS to take control of the AFC South. And it was a good thing the Jaguars (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) made that run, as they lost their last two regular-season games, including a 15-10 slog at Tennessee as a 2.5-point underdog in Week 17.
Buffalo (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) is easily the luckiest playoff participant this year, getting into the tournament when Cincinnati beat Baltimore on a fourth-and-12 touchdown pass from midfield in the final minute of a Week 17 contest. That, coupled with the Bills' 22-16 victory over Miami as a 2.5-point favorite, got Buffalo the sixth and final seed.
Line movement on this 1:05 p.m. ET kickoff has been quite volatile at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan and Venetian on the Vegas Strip. Early on, the number went straight from 7.5 to 9, and on Saturday, it went directly from 9 to 7.5 before rebounding back to 9.
"Seventy-five percent of account money is on Jacksonville, while we're fairly even over the counter," Bernanke said of pointspread betting at CG. "Sixty percent of account moneyline bets are on Jacksonville, while 70 percent of over-the-counter moneyline bets are on Buffalo."
As CG often notes, its sharper players bet on account, while the public represents the bulk of over-the-counter cash.
Bookmaker.eu opened the Jags -7.5 and reached 9 by Tuesday, where the line remained through Saturday night. (Find more online sportsbooks and reviews at OddsShark.com)
"Jacksonville has been a pretty consistent smart play all year, and the pros didn't back off the Jags this week," Cooley said. "The public is on the chalk as well, so we have more than 70 percent of the money on that side. Our biggest total liability of the weekend is this game's under, as the sharps hit it early and the squares are expecting a defensive battle as well."
Bookmaker.eu opened the total at 40 and got to 39 Saturday, before ticking up to 39.5. Bernanke said CG is seeing 80 percent of money on the total backing the under, moving from 40 to 39.5.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -5.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6; Move: -6.5; Move: -6
New Orleans claimed the NFC South and the No. 4 seed in the playoffs, largely due to an 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS tear after losing its first two games. The Saints (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) finished with a 31-24 loss at Tampa Bay as a 6-point chalk.
Carolina (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS) returned to the playoffs as a wild card, after missing out last season following a run to the Super Bowl. The Panthers also enter the postseason on a losing note, falling 22-10 at Atlanta catching 5 points last week.
"Eighty percent of account money is on the Saints, and 80 percent of over-the-counter money is on the Saints," Bernanke said of very lopsided pointspread betting at CG books. However, on the moneyline - +225 for Carolina on Saturday night - it was a different story. "Three times more Carolina bets on account, and three times more Carolina bets over the counter."
Bookmaker.eu opened the Saints -5.5, got to 7 at the high point and since Thursday has been at 6.5. Cooley is hoping there's no need for another upward tick.
"We'd rather not see this get to a touchdown, but that's where we're headed at the moment," he said. "We know that the squares will be taking the favorite and over in the wild-card finale. But if we move to -7, it's likely we'll see a lot of value players enter the fold with Carolina. Which we may need, but at this point, we're where we want to be on the handle."
Meanwhile, on the total, CG opened at 48.5 and has been at 48 since Thursday, with Bernanke noting that through Saturday night, 70 percent of money on the total is backing the under.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
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