Boom or bust: Assessing the success of top free-agent signings since 2012
As the first major wave of free-agent signings comes to a close, teams around the league are patting themselves on the back for securing some of the biggest prizes available on the open market.
However, while free agency is a powerful tool in the NFL, it's one not always wielded effectively or strategically. The assumption is that free-agent signings, maybe even more so than drafting players, are an art form teams haven't yet perfected.
So, with the main part of 2018 free agency in the rearview mirror, let's examine exactly how successful the biggest 10 signings in terms of annual average salary were from each of the previous six seasons.
Free-agent signings have been given a star rating from one to five. Factors considered include the length of time spent with signing team, level of performance compared with similarly compensated players, and overall impact made on the future of the franchise. Players who re-signed with the same team were omitted.
2017 (Salary cap: $168M)| Player | Team | AAV/Yrs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| DE Calais Campbell | JAX | $15M/4 | aaaaa |
| QB Mike Glennon | CHI | $15M/3 | aa |
| CB A.J. Bouye | JAX | $13.50M/5 | aaaaa |
| LT Russell Okung | LAC | $13.25M/4 | aa |
| CB Stephon Gilmore | NE | $13M/5 | aaa |
| G Kevin Zeitler | CLE | $12M/5 | aaa |
| LT Riley Reiff | MIN | $11.75M/5 | aaa |
| LT Andrew Whitworth | LAR | $11.25M/3 | aaaaa |
| WR DeSean Jackson | TB | $11.17M/3 | aa |
| LT Matt Kalil | CAR | $11.10M/5 | aa |
Average score: 3.2/5.0
One year isn't really enough to judge free-agent signings, but based on the early returns, the Jaguars killed the 2017 offseason. They snagged two premier defenders in Calais Campbell and A.J. Bouye, who both made the All-Pro teams in their first season in Jacksonville. In contrast, the less said about Mike Glennon's time in Chicago the better; the only saving grace to the move was that it was a one-year mistake that didn't prove too damaging. Meanwhile, five offensive linemen were paid handsomely, with varying results. Andrew Whitworth continued to perform at a Hall-of-Fame level as part of the upstart Rams, while Matt Kalil played like a replacement despite being paid like a top-10 player at his position.
2016 (Salary cap: $155M)| Player | Team | AAV/Yrs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Brock Osweiler | HOU | $18M/4 | a |
| DE Olivier Vernon | NYG | $17M/5 | aaa |
| CB Josh Norman | WAS | $15M/5 | aa |
| DT Malik Jackson | JAX | $14.25M/6 | aa |
| CB Janoris Jenkins | NYG | $12.50M/5 | aaa |
| QB Ryan Fitzpatrick | NYJ | $12M/1 | aa |
| G Kelechi Osemele | OAK | $11.70M/5 | aaaa |
| CB Sean Smith | OAK | $9.50M/4 | aa |
| DT Damon Harrison | NYG | $9.25M/5 | aaaa |
| LB Bruce Irvin | OAK | $9.25M/4 | aaa |
Average score: 2.6/5.0
Oh, Texans, Texans, Texans. Houston will never rid itself of the shame of Brock Osweiler's ridiculous contract. Osweiler is followed by a host of players whose performances, while sometimes very good, haven't consistently played to the level their massive deals demand. Olivier Vernon and Janoris Jenkins looked like slam-dunk signings in 2016, but Jenkins especially had a troubled 2017 as his play dipped and he clashed with former head coach Ben McAdoo. Malik Jackson has been solid, but he's vastly overpaid and his arrival was made somewhat redundant by Campbell signing a year later.
2015 (Salary cap: $143M)| Player | Team | AAV/Yrs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| DT Ndamukong Suh | MIA | $19.06M/6 | aaa |
| CB Darrelle Revis | NYJ | $14.02M/5 | a |
| DE Greg Hardy | DAL | $11.31M/1 | aa |
| WR Jeremy Maclin | KC | $11M/5 | aaa |
| TE Julius Thomas | JAX | $9.20M/5 | aa |
| C Rodney Hudson | OAK | $8.90M/5 | aaaa |
| DE Jared Odrick | JAX | $8.50M/5 | aa |
| RB DeMarco Murray | PHI | $8M/5 | aa |
| WR Torrey Smith | SF | $8M/5 | aa |
| G Mike Iupati | ARI | $8M/5 | aaa |
Average score: 2.4/5.0
Ndamukong Suh, who just hit the open market again, didn't have the most successful time in Miami but remained an elite player over his three-year stint. His rating is mostly lowered by the ridiculous enormity of his contract and the Dolphins' inability to build around him. Darrelle Revis, DeMarco Murray, and Julius Thomas were huge busts, but the cornerback's return to New York was particularly bad considering he received nearly $40 million in guaranteed money for just two forgettable seasons.
2014 (Salary cap: $133M)| Player | Team | AAV/Yrs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| CB Darrelle Revis | NE | $12M/1 | aaaaa |
| DE DeMarcus Ware | DEN | $10M/3 | aaaaa |
| CB Aqib Talib | DEN | $9.50M/6 | aaaaa |
| LT Branden Albert | MIA | $9.40M/5 | aaa |
| S Jairus Byrd | NO | $9M/6 | aa |
| DE Michael Johnson | TB | $8.75M/5 | a |
| DE Julius Peppers | GB | $8.67M/3 | aaaaa |
| DE Jared Allen | CHI | $8M/4 | aa |
| WR Eric Decker | NYJ | $7.25M/5 | aaa |
| CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie | NYG | $7M/5 | aaa |
Average score: 3.4/5.0
Now, this is more like it. Revis was a huge factor in the Patriots' Super Bowl win and didn't require a long commitment. Meanwhile, DeMarcus Ware formed the league's best pass-rushing duo with Von Miller and was key to the Broncos' 2015 title, as was Aqib Talib, who made four straight Pro Bowls in Denver. Julius Peppers' impact wasn't quite as great as the other five-starred players, but his deal was a steal and the Packers deserve credit for realizing just how much he had left in the tank. Michael Johnson's awful deal has been mostly forgotten already outside Tampa Bay, but the defensive end lasted just one year despite $18 million in guaranteed money. Ouch.
2013 (Salary cap: $123M)| Player | Team | AAV/Yrs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR Mike Wallace | MIA | $12M/5 | aa |
| WR Greg Jennings | MIN | $9M/5 | aaa |
| LT Jake Long | STL | $8.50M/4 | aa |
| LB Paul Kruger | CLE | $8.10M/5 | aaa |
| G Andy Levitre | TEN | $7.80M/6 | aa |
| G Jermon Bushrod | CHI | $7.19M/5 | aa |
| TE Jared Cook | STL | $7.02M/5 | aaa |
| LB Dannell Ellerbe | MIA | $7M/5 | aa |
| RT Gosder Cherilus | IND | $7M/5 | aa |
| DE Desmond Bryant | CLE | $6.80M/5 | aaa |
Average score: 2.4/5.0
The weakest overall class, 2013 had no standout signings but few egregiously bad ones. Mike Wallace had nearly 1,800 yards in two seasons but receives a rating of two stars mostly because he was the third highest-paid receiver at the time of signing. Jake Long's contract was reasonable but his play was subpar and, while impossible to predict after a mostly injury-free career, his two ACL tears in two seasons were devastating. It was a bad year for offensive linemen signings in general, with Andy Levitre and Gosder Cherilus also failing to come anywhere close to living up to their huge deals.
2012 (Salary cap: $120M)| Player | Team | AAV/Yrs | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| QB Peyton Manning | DEN | $19.20M/5 | aaaaa |
| DE Mario Williams | BUF | $16M/6 | aaa |
| WR Vincent Jackson | TB | $11.11M/5 | aaaa |
| CB Brandon Carr | DAL | $10.02M/5 | aaa |
| CB Cortland Finnegan | STL | $10M/5 | aa |
| G Carl Nicks | TB | $9.50M/5 | aa |
| WR Pierre Garcon | WAS | $8.50M/5 | aaaa |
| CB Eric Wright | TB | $7.50M/5 | aa |
| G Ben Grubbs | NO | $7.20M/5 | aaa |
| RT Demetress Bell | PHI | $7M/5 | aa |
Average score: 3.0/5.0
The Broncos' signing of Peyton Manning and how perfectly they built their roster around him to maximize his final years should be taught in NFL history lessons. It's the easiest five-star rating over the past six years - though it must be noted how unique his path to free agency was. Meanwhile, Mario Williams produced three straight 10-plus-sack seasons before flaming out in Buffalo, which drags his rating down. His crazy contract was a significant factor too, but overpaying is part of free agency and pass-rushers rarely hit the open market. Vincent Jackson and Pierre Garcon are the first receivers to get a rating above three, a worrying sign for any team that has shelled out a big contract to a wideout this offseason.
What did we learn?The top of NFL free agency isn't quite a coin flip, but it's close.
The 60 players evaluated earned 170 points out of a possible 300. Only two free-agent classes (2014, 2017) finished with a rating significantly above average, and as previously mentioned, it usually takes at least two seasons to truly evaluate whether a signing was a success, so that class could still take a dive.
| Star Rating | Percentage of signings (60) |
|---|---|
| 1 | 5 % |
| 2 | 41.67 % |
| 3 | 31.67 % |
| 4 | 8.37 % |
| 5 | 13.33 % |
Only 13 out of 60 players were given four stars or above, so the chances of hitting big on a top free agent over the past six years stand at around 22 percent. And just eight (13 percent) were given five-star ratings, so if you're hoping for an elite return from your team's top-10 free-agent investment, prepare to be disappointed.
What does this mean for 2018's free-agent class?Kirk Cousins, Sam Bradford, Case Keenum, Sammy Watkins, Nate Solder, Trumaine Johnson, Allen Robinson, Andrew Norwell, Malcolm Butler, and Ryan Jensen are currently the best-paid free-agent signings in terms of AAV (though Suh is likely to push Jensen out of the top 10).
Based on the past six seasons, only two of these 10 players will be big successes (four-star rating and above) and only one of those will be considered an elite signing (five-star rating).
Meanwhile, seven out of the 10 will likely be viewed as an average (three-star) or below-average signing, with an all-time bust like Osweiler coming around every couple years.
It's possible the lesser deals in free agency are the more successful ones, but it's clear teams struggle to identify which top talents to pay. While free agency is a time of hope, there's a reason teams labeled the "winners" of the offseason often find themselves struggling to meet expectations.
(Contract numbers courtesy: Spotrac)
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