Fantasy: 3 RBs who could continue recent contract-year production at position
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
A running back's fantasy production is often linked to his workload. Over the past several seasons, running backs in contract years have frequently seen their carry totals spike.
Which is why fantasy managers may want to invest a little more heavily in Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, and Alex Collins in 2018. All three are entering the final year of their contracts, and face uncertain futures with their current teams.
The Atlanta Falcons already have Devonta Freeman locked up, and they drafted Ito Smith in April, potentially giving them Coleman's eventual replacement as the No. 2.
Ajayi will play his first full season with the Philadelphia Eagles after helping them win Super Bowl LII as a trade-deadline acquisition. He remains entrenched in a committee and could become a spare part at season's end for a team projected to be $43.1 million above the 2019 salary cap, according to Spotrac.
Collins, 23, is already on his second team after being drafted in the fifth round by the Seattle Seahawks in 2016. He rushed for 973 yards and six touchdowns on 212 carries in 2017. He seems safe atop the Ravens' depth chart entering 2018, but a second strong campaign could make him too expensive for a Baltimore team with other weak areas, and cap constraints of their own.
Let's look back at the contract-year production among running backs in recent seasons to see the paths Coleman, Ajayi, and Collins could follow, and why their fantasy values might rise.
2017| Player | Carries | Prev. high | Prev. year |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Hyde | 240 | 217 | 217 |
| I. Crowell | 206 | 198 | 198 |
| D. Lewis | 180 | 64 | 64 |
| J. McKinnon | 150 | 159 | 159 |
Jerick McKinnon, the jewel of the 2018 free-agent running back class, came close to a career single-season carry high during his last year with the Minnesota Vikings. The 26-year-old also recorded 201 total touches, finishing just one touch shy of his 2016 mark. That workload led to 991 yards from scrimmage.
Dion Lewis transitioned into a different role during his final season with the New England Patriots. He emerged as the team's workhorse on the ground in the first full, healthy season of his career, receiving double-digit touches in each of his final 11 games, and finishing with 1,110 yards from scrimmage.
The San Francisco 49ers replaced Carlos Hyde with McKinnon, viewing the latter as a better fit for head coach Kyle Shanahan's system. They came to that decision after using Hyde at a career-high level over his first 16-game season.
2016| Player | Carries | Prev. high | Prev. year |
|---|---|---|---|
| L. Blount | 299 | 201 | 165 |
| R. Burkhead | 74 | 9 | 4 |
The Patriots didn't take it easy on LeGarrette Blount in 2016, even though he turned 30 late in the year. He set a career single-season high in carries, leading to career bests in rushing yards (1,161) and touchdowns (18). Then Blount left New England as a free agent.
2015| Player | Carries | Prev. high | Prev. year |
|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ivory | 247 | 198 | 198 |
| L. Miller | 194 | 216 | 216 |
In his sixth NFL season, Chris Ivory stayed healthy enough to become a lead back for the first time. The 247 carries he was given exceeded his previous single-season high by almost 50, and he set career highs with 30 receptions on 37 targets.
Lamar Miller's usage steadily progressed during his four-year run with the Miami Dolphins. He significantly improved as a receiver in 2015, his final season with the team, catching 47 of 57 targets.
2014| Player | Carries | Prev. high | Prev. year |
|---|---|---|---|
| D. Murray | 392 | 217 | 217 |
| D. McFadden | 155 | 223 | 114 |
| S. Vereen | 96 | 62 | 44 |
No running back better exemplifies the contract-year surge than the now-retired DeMarco Murray. He was given an incredible 392 carries in 2014, leading all running backs in rushing yards (1,845), and tying for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (13). The Cowboys then showed little interest in retaining his services, partially due to previous injury concerns because he had never played a full season before.
The Oakland Raiders ignored Darren McFadden's extensive injury history during his final year with the team when he received his third-highest carry total at the time.
2013| Player | Carries | Prev. high | Prev. year |
|---|---|---|---|
| B. Tate | 181 | 175 | 65 |
| R. Jennings | 163 | 101 | 101 |
| K. Moreno | 241 | 247 | 138 |
| M. Jones-Drew | 234 | 343 | 86 |
The Raiders had Rashad Jennings for just the 2013 season, and they gave him 62 more carries than any previous campaign. Jennings topped that mark with the New York Giants during each of his three seasons in the Big Apple, but he'd never match his efficiency in Oakland, where he averaged 4.5 yards per carry.
Ben Tate rushed for 942 yards and four touchdowns during his 2011 sophomore season with the Houston Texans (he spent his rookie year sidelined by an injury). Tate put a poor 2012 season behind him with a career-high 181 carries in 2013, finishing with 771 rushing yards.
2012| Player | Carries | Prev. high | Prev. year |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Greene | 276 | 253 | 253 |
| R. Bush | 227 | 216 | 216 |
| A. Bradshaw | 221 | 276 | 171 |
Reggie Bush played 16 games in 2012, logging a full season for the first time since his rookie year. The Dolphins took advantage of his health by feeding him plenty of carries. However, he was used more sparingly as a pass-catcher, recording just 35 catches after topping the 40-reception mark five times previously in his career.
The New York Jets drafted Shonn Greene 65th overall in 2009 and steadily increased his workload over four seasons. He recorded a career-high 276 carries in 2012, finishing with 1,063 rushing yards. He never approached either total over the next two years after leaving to play with the Tennessee Titans, recording just 171 carries and 687 rushing yards in 2013 and 2014 combined.
Copyright (C) 2018 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.