Favorites, underdogs, and long shots: How to bet the top 5 NFL player props
NFL player prop betting is a season-long grind that forces you to root for individuals on a weekly basis while praying they don't get suspended, benched, or broken into many small fragments.
Here are five of the most popular large-scale prop bets, along with my picks for the top favorites, underdogs, and long shots (odds courtesy: BetOnline):
Most passing yards
Top favorite: Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (+500)
There hasn't been much variance in this department in the recent past. Aside from Matt Schaub glitching the system and pacing the NFL in passing yards in 2009, only five different quarterbacks have led the league over the past 14 seasons. Drew Brees is one of those five players, and he's done so seven times in that 14-year sample.
Last season was a different story. Brees finished with his lowest passing total since joining the Saints. With a running back tandem of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, New Orleans became more balanced.
This season, Brees has two new weapons in Cameron Meredith and Tre'Quan Smith joining All-Pro receiver Michael Thomas. And while Ingram is suspended for the first four games, he and Kamara (139 combined receptions in 2017) are still the best one-two backfield receiving punch in football.
Top underdog: Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (+1,200)
Stafford has a pair of receivers in Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate capable of sailing over the 1,000-yard mark. Throw in a solid third option in Kenny Golladay, and the fact that Detroit hasn't been able to run the ball since the Prohibition era, and Stafford should pad his stats plenty.
Top long shot: Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (+4,000)
Sometimes it's just backyard football with Wilson, who makes it look easy. I look forward to Seattle abandoning the ground game early each week and letting Wilson launch 70-yard bombs to Doug Baldwin.
Most rushing yards
Top favorite: Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys (+250)
Zeke is an obvious choice for several reasons.
Barring injury, Elliott should play a full season and is running behind a behemoth line. And the Cowboys' passing game looks downright abysmal on paper, which means plenty of ground work. If any running back is a lock for 1,500 yards rushing, it's this guy.
Top underdog: Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (+1,200)
More on Barkley below.
Top long shot: Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (+4,000)
Hey, you never know. McCaffrey will make his living bringing down passes outside of his usual role as a running back, but he ran the ball more during the preseason. So, naturally, expect the Stanford product to pick up about 4,000 yards from scrimmage. OK, not really ... but maybe.
Most receiving yards
Top favorite: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (+250)
You can make the case Julio Jones (+450) deserves this spot, but the addition of Calvin Ridley adds another mouth to feed on offense in Atlanta. Go with the most targeted receiver from a year ago.
Top underdog: T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (+1,600)
Hilton is unbelievably undervalued with Andrew Luck back in the fold. In general, the Colts' scheme will offer plenty of opportunities. Expect new head coach Frank Reich to push the tempo with a boatload of no-huddle. Also, you have to figure the Colts will play from behind plenty, translating to more throwing and, perhaps more importantly, meaningless yards in garbage time when defenses are backpedaling into prevent. Tie it all together, and Hilton is a terrific underdog play after racking up a league-high 1,448 yards back in 2016.
Top long shot: Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns (+5,000)
If Landry continues to haul in 100-plus passes despite serving mainly as a horizontal slot receiver, there's plenty of value here on volume alone.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Top favorite: RB Saquon Barkley, New York Giants (+225)
Barkley was a big-play machine at Penn State and should see a hefty workload in a running back-friendly Giants offense. New York has handed the offensive reins to Mike Shula, whose game plan with the Carolina Panthers last season translated to nearly 1,100 yards from scrimmage for McCaffrey during his rookie season. And Barkley is just so much better.
I won't read too far into headlines or quotes from the coaching staff, but everything points to the Giants deploying Barkley in a variety of ways. Given he adds a multidimensional wrinkle out of the backfield that the franchise hasn't had in a while, I expect him to be used frequently in both the running and passing games.
Top underdog: WR Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (+3,300)
Take this for what it's worth, but a source within the Denver organization dropped an interesting tip on Sutton, saying he "wouldn't be surprised" if the SMU product led the team in receiving touchdowns based on how the team plans to use him.
The last time the Broncos had a prime red-zone weapon? Tight end Julius Thomas in 2014. That's a long time ago in football years.
Top long shot: WR James Washington, Pittsburgh Steelers (+4,000)
It was just last year that a Steelers rookie wide receiver burst onto the scene. Have they struck gold again?
Washington was a home-run hitter at Oklahoma State. If he gets opportunities, he'll make 'em count.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Top favorite: S Minkah Fitzpatrick, Miami Dolphins (+800)
Fitzpatrick is your typical plug-and-play defensive back who will see time at both free and strong safety, nickel and corner. Don't be surprised to see him return an interception the other way, as he took four of his nine picks to the end zone with the Crimson Tide.
He can blitz. He can cover. There isn't much Minkah Fitzpatrick can't do. And he'll be relied upon to make an impact right away in Miami.
Top underdog: LB Harold Landry, Tennessee Titans (+1,600)
This was one of my favorite picks in the draft and I'll be damned if I don't let it ride for as long as I can. Landry was a stud at Boston College and he'll be making life hell for opposing quarterbacks sooner than later. I'm betting it happens immediately.
Top long shot: CB Mike Hughes, Minnesota Vikings (+5,000)
A Minnesota defender? Sign me up. The Vikings added the UCF product to an already-strong secondary early in the draft. If Xavier Rhodes is nice, maybe he'll let Hughes bag a couple of picks in his debut season.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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