Predicting win totals for every AFC East team
It's been 18 years since any team finished with more wins than the New England Patriots in the AFC East, and with the rest of the division's starting-quarterback landscape consisting of a rookie from USC, a guy who threw five interceptions in his debut last season, and a veteran coming off an ACL/MCL tear, there's little reason to think the streak ends in 2018.
With that said, here are my over/under win-total picks for the entire AFC East:
New England Patriots
Pick: Over 11 wins -127 (Bookmaker)
I'll take the bait here.
The Patriots get the long end of the stick with their NFC North opponents, as they'll welcome the Vikings and Packers to Foxboro and play the Lions and Bears on the road. Those are four winnable games. Of course, New England always sees the Jets, Bills, and Dolphins twice, while Houston, Kansas City, and Indianapolis will all make the trek to Gillette Stadium. Even the annual slip-up in Miami or a low-scoring home loss to Buffalo or New York won't be enough to stop the Pats from reaching 11 wins.
There's nothing that can convince me the Patriots' inevitable downswing will materialize this season. The metrics like the Pats. There might not be an official defensive coordinator, but New England should be able to rush the passer more efficiently this year. Rob Gronkowski is healthy - at least for now. We can dismiss the receiving corps on paper, but would it really be a surprise if Tom Brady turns Chad Hansen into an AFC Player of the Week in September?
The parity gods will eventually end the Patriots' lengthy dynasty - likely in the near future - but it's not happening this year.
New York Jets
Pick: Under 6 wins -130 (BetOnline)
I'm itching to buy into this Jets team, if only a little.
In fact, I probably like New York more than I should. I'm neither high nor low on Sam Darnold, but I really like the receiving corps of Robby Anderson, Jermaine Kearse, Quincy Enunwa, and Terrelle Pryor. The offensive line is less than ideal, but the Jets did add some talent over the summer. The tandem of Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye highlight an improving secondary. There are pieces to work with; it's just a matter of when the leap will happen.
The Jets hit the over on their 2017 win total thanks to some early-season victories. The 2018 version will have to rely on that again, because post-Thanksgiving wins will be few and far between. The Jets' final six games of the season are as follows: vs. New England, at Tennessee, at Buffalo, vs. Houston, vs. Green Bay, and at New England.
That doesn't even account for home matchups against Minnesota and Denver, or road games in Detroit and Jacksonville. No matter how much I like the pieces, I'm not ready to give these Jets seven wins with that schedule.
I just hope they throw the ball around and are fun this season. Perhaps the leap will come in 2019.
Miami Dolphins
Pick: Under 6.5 wins +120 (BetOnline)
You're familiar with the Bart Simpson chalkboard picture, yes? Well, here's a personalized version:
I will not buy into the Dolphins.
I will not buy into the Dolphins.
I will not buy into the Dolphins.
I will not buy into the Dolphins.
Every year, I pick this team to surprise in the AFC. And each season, media pundits proclaim that Ryan Tannehill is primed for his "breakout." Let's be real - Tannehill is a 30-year-old converted wide receiver! The breakout narrative needs a headstone.
Last year, the Dolphins shipped out running back Jay Ajayi, and then watched him win the Super Bowl. The franchise let Jarvis Landry go in the offseason despite seeing him average 100 catches per year since 2014. The offensive line has been hexed for years with injuries. This year, the Dolphins brought in Dowell Loggains as offensive coordinator despite him overseeing one of the worst units in football last season with the Bears (yes, salty Chicago native over here).
When it comes to strength of schedule, the Fins are right in the middle. Getting the Bills and Jets for one quarter of the season should help, but can Miami overcome inexperience and poor linebacking play on defense to go .500 the rest of the way?
I'm calling for a down year.
Buffalo Bills
Pick: Over 5.5 EV (BetOnline)
I'm sure even the linemakers would admit that 6.5 was a terribly set opener.
Buffalo (somehow) made the playoffs last season but outperformed its Pythagorean expectation, and then traded away starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor in the offseason. Expected regression, among other factors, sent the total down to 5.5, where it is now.
The Bills are my 2017 Jets - the team nobody wants to touch. Buffalo gets a tough slate to start the season with games against the Ravens, Chargers, Vikings, Packers, Titans, and Texans. It gets easier down the stretch with seven non-playoff teams from a year ago.
What the betting community needs is for rookie Josh Allen to get the nod following a best-case-scenario 1-5 start and then take the world by storm. I can see it.
It wouldn't be all that fun to stake claims based solely on SOS or what DVOA is projecting. If there's any team in the AFC I'm taking a flier on, it's the Bills.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from 'Rounders' and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
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