Top 5 betting plays for Week 12 of the NFL season

After uncovering some betting nuggets and making our picks for every team total in Week 12, let's go through our five best overall plays for the NFL slate.

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Wager: Under 54

The Buccaneers have been the best "over" play this season, sailing past the number in eight of 10 games thanks to poor defensive play and a pass-heavy offense. But the combination of a cross-country trip and change at quarterback will hurt the 49ers on Sunday.

Tampa Bay has looked somewhat equipped to stop offenses at home - allowing 22.5 points per game at Raymond James Stadium, compared to 39.8 on the road. It also gets backup quarterback Nick Mullens in his first career start away from home.

The Bucs will turn back to Jameis Winston following a rough stretch of games for Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the offense has actually been better with the latter this season. The veteran Fitzpatrick has helped the offense average 0.6 more adjusted yards per play than with Winston under center.

Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

Wager: Over 42.5

Rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson will make his second straight start when the Ravens host the Raiders on Sunday. The Ravens' offense should have a field day against a Raiders front seven that hasn't been able to dial up any pressure this season, ranking last in the NFL with only nine sacks.

Baltimore's elite defense appears to have come back down to earth a bit recently, allowing 5.4 yards per play over the last three games. Oakland has a banged-up receiving corps but you can still expect quarterback Derek Carr to be throwing a ton in this one.

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

Wager: Eagles -5.5

This is as good a time as any to buy low on the Eagles, who are coming off back-to-back losses. The Giants are gaining some traction after turning in consecutive wins - however, those have come in the form of a come-from-behind victory over the two-win 49ers and a three-point win against the Bucs. We like Philly to bounce back here with what's essentially its season on the line.

The Eagles have fluctuated between -5 and -6 all week, but a more appealing -5.5 is also available with some 'books.

Extra PointsMiami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Recommended Pick: Dolphins' team total over 20.5

The Colts' defense has left a lot to be desired, allowing 5.6 yards per play and 5.9 when adjusting for strength of schedule. The Dolphins are coming off a bye week and should have plenty of opportunities for points in the dome on Sunday.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Recommended Pick: Vikings -3

This could be the turning point for the Vikings, who dropped a pivotal NFC North game last weekend against the Bears. It was a tough draw for starting quarterback Kirk Cousins, whose lack of success in the big game - he fell to 4-12 in prime-time contests with that loss in Chicago - is again a hot topic. Between that narrative and the line dropping from 4.5 to 3, we believe the Vikings will rise to the occasion against a Packers defense that does not travel well.

Top plays: 21-9-2 (70 percent)

Overall record: 33-19-1 (63.5 percent)

Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.

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