Film Room: Analyzing key matchups in Colts-Titans play-in game

NFL fans will be treated to an early taste of postseason action on Sunday when the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans face off in Nashville. The winner will secure a playoff spot - and potentially the AFC South title, should the Houston Texans fall to the Jacksonville Jaguars earlier in the day - while the loser will be eliminated.

Here, we'll break down the biggest matchup question for each team's defense when it comes to slowing down the opposing offense.

Can the Colts stop the Titans' running game?

Whether it's starter Marcus Mariota or backup Blaine Gabbert under center for Tennessee (Mariota's status is uncertain due to a lingering nerve injury), stopping the run will be the No. 1 priority for Indy's defense. And that begins with containing Derrick Henry.

After failing to reach 60 yards on the ground in any of the first 12 games this season, Henry exploded over the past three weeks - all Titans victories - with a combined 492 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

What's made Henry and the running game so dangerous is that Tennessee's been effective with both zone-blocking and power designs. Here's an example of the former against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 14, which saw Henry reach the end zone:

And here's an example of a power toss against the New York Giants in Week 15:

For the Colts to have a chance at stopping Henry, they should follow the roadmap from their own performance against the Giants in Week 16. In that comeback victory, Indy's defense held New York under 100 yards rushing. This play against star rookie Saquon Barkley is a prime example of what the unit can do:

Above, the Giants try a zone running play to the right, but immediate penetration from Colts defensive lineman Margus Hunt forces Barkley to bounce outside. From there, cornerback Kenny Moore, linebacker Ahmad Thomas, and cornerback Pierre Desir combine to string Barkley horizontal and eventually force him out of bounds after a minimal gain.

Against Henry, the Colts will need that type of immediate penetration, and for multiple defenders to rally to the football, forcing the running back east/west.

Can Tennessee slow down Indy's vertical passing game?

Earlier in the year, Colts quarterback Andrew Luck was attempting the majority of his throws near the line of scrimmage - leading to concerns that his shoulder wasn't fully healed - but that changed in the second half of the season. Overall, Luck's notched six touchdown passes of 20-plus yards on 49 such attempts in 2018.

How the Colts and head coach Frank Reich execute that downfield passing game can be broken down into two categories: Creative personnel usage and T.Y. Hilton.

In terms of personnel, the Colts often put multiple tight ends on the field, which gets the defense to play with its base personnel and opens up matchups to exploit in the secondary. Here's an example from Week 10 against the Jaguars, as the Colts line up with three tight ends and a running back:

NFL

Because of the tight end-heavy package, Jacksonville keeps its base defense on the field and prepares for a running play by stacking the box. Meanwhile, Jalen Ramsey, a cornerback by trade, is lined up deep as the free safety.

However, the offensive concept is actually a vertical passing design:

NFL

Additionally, running back Nyheim Hines move into the left slot, emptying the backfield. This forces the Jaguars into a base Cover 3 scheme given the personnel they have in the game. But the Colts are running a vertical concept designed to attack that coverage and a player in Ramsey who's manning a somewhat unfamiliar position.

As seen below, the inside vertical routes bracket Ramsey in the middle of the field, and Luck hits Mo Alie-Cox for a big gain:

Again, by breaking the huddle with three tight ends, the Colts force the Jaguars to make a decision. The defense can either go heavy with a base personnel package (as seen here), or it can go light with multiple defensive backs who are better against the pass. Either way, the offense can take advantage - by throwing downfield against the base scheme (as seen here), or by punishing light defensive personnel with bigger offensive bodies and running plays.

The Colts also push the football downfield by using Hilton's route-running prowess. Here's an example:

On this third-and-10 play against the Texans, Hilton's aligned on the right side. He then uses a double-move on the outside, showing a quick slant route to the inside before breaking vertically up the sideline (sneaking in an extra out-and-up move along the way). Meanwhile, Luck drops a dime for a huge gain.

The speed and skill of Hilton is another reason the Titans will need to be stout in their coverage, especially when the Colts come out in those tight-end heavy packages to create downfield passing opportunities.

Overall, how the Colts deal with the Titans' running game and how Tennessee tries to cover Indy's vertical passing designs will go a long way toward determining which team continues playing after Week 17, and which one ends up packing for the beach.

Mark Schofield writes NFL feature content for theScore. After nearly a decade of practicing law in the Washington, D.C., area Mark changed careers and started writing about football. Drawing upon more than a decade of playing quarterback, including at the collegiate level, Mark focuses his work on quarterback evaluation and offensive scheme analysis. He lives in Maryland with his wife and two children. Find him on Twitter @MarkSchofield.

Copyright (C) 2018 Score Media Ventures Inc. All rights reserved. Certain content reproduced under license.