Why Nick Foles is bound to disappoint his next team

An above-average quarterback who becomes available can prompt a Black Friday-style frenzy among NFL teams. It was true for Case Keenum last offseason, and the rumbling at your feet right now is the Nick Foles stampede in its early stages.

Foles has now been set free after Philadelphia Eagles general manager Howie Roseman announced during his scouting combine press conference that the team won't franchise tag the Super Bowl LII MVP. He'll be available to the highest bidder on March 11 when the negotiating window opens.

Signing Foles will be tempting, and general managers who believe a quarterback is the last piece of their championship puzzle will surely pursue him aggressively.

However, one thing is almost certain: giving Foles the starting-quarterback money he'll demand is a mistake waiting to happen. The buyer's remorse will be strong for the franchise that ultimately ponies up.

That's because, despite everything he's done on the biggest stage, Foles is a 30-year-old who's been inconsistent throughout his career and lacks much recent experience under center. Bringing him aboard will handcuff his next employer and its roster-building plans.

Getting paid

In 2018, Foles earned a $4-million base salary that ranked 20th among quarterbacks, according to Spotrac.

The very lowest baseline for his next deal is the contract Keenum signed last offseason, also as a 30-year-old. Keenum dazzled as a replacement starter in 2017 while guiding the Minnesota Vikings to a division title, and then inked a two-year agreement with the Denver Broncos worth $36 million with $25 million guaranteed.

Predictably, after only fleeting success prior to his breakout year with the Vikings, Keenum flopped in Denver this past season. He threw the second-most interceptions in the league (15), and now Joe Flacco will replace him.

Dustin Bradford / Getty Images Sport / Getty

But until the Broncos officially move on from Keenum, he's on their roster and is scheduled to carry a $21-million cap hit in 2019. Somehow, that's only $1.8 million behind the Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan.

Like Keenum, Foles is only a stopgap solution, and treating him as anything more won't end well.

That's why this situation could get sticky fast.

Good but not great

Some will point to Foles' playoff heroics and heap praise on the veteran's poise in clutch situations. Postseason wins and the leadership skills required in January carry weight. We can even minimize the influence of Doug Pederson's offensive scheming over the past two seasons, and of Chip Kelly's during Foles' Pro Bowl campaign in 2013.

Go ahead. Do all that and ignore Foles' stretches of merely passable play, like the seven regular-season appearances in 2017 when his poor deep passing put him firmly in the league's cellar:

According to Pro Football Focus, Carson Wentz had an accuracy percentage of 44.6 and a passer rating of 100.2 on passes of 20+ air yards. On those same throws, Nick Foles had an accuracy percentage of 25.0 and a rating of 10.4 (worst among 61 QBs with multiple attempts)

- James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV) January 13, 2018

Still, like other good-but-not-great quarterbacks before him, Foles will surely find suitors who are ready to toss aside all the warning signs and dive into a financial abyss.

Case in point: The list of recent QB contracts that induce cold sweats at night extends well beyond Keenum. It includes Alex Smith, who received a mammoth four-year deal from the Washington Redskins last offseason that guarantees him $71 million.

Smith had a lot more regular-season experience than Foles, but much of that came while being a "game manager" on struggling teams. He'd appeared in six playoff games to Foles' seven and didn't own any postseason hardware. Regardless, the Redskins had an opening under center and were willing to spend big.

Derek Carr's on the list too, as he's failed disastrously since signing a contract with the Oakland Raiders that guarantees him $70 million. In the two years since inking his deal, Carr's thrown 23 interceptions for a team that's won only 10 games. His 6.26-yard average depth of target from a clean pocket was the NFL's lowest in 2018, according to Pro Football Focus.

The Raiders surely didn't think they were paying for a chronic checkdown tosser. But for now, that's their reality, and like other merely above-average quarterbacks deemed worthy of franchise money, Carr occupies a crippling portion of the team's finances. He's projected to soak up 11.75 percent of Oakland's cap space in 2019, more than double any other player on the roster.

Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images Sport / Getty

Foles' future team can think all the peachy thoughts it wants about his on-field abilities. That team can conveniently look past the sample-size issues that come with a quarterback who made just 14 starts over the past three seasons, even including the playoffs.

His new general manager can also choose to believe that the Foles who threw interceptions on more than 3 percent of his pass attempts across 2014 and '15 - far more than his 2 percent and 2.1 percent marks in 2017 and '18, respectively - is a dissolved memory.

But no amount of wishing and recency bias changes the financial commitment it will take to sign a quarterback who's shined brightly, but just briefly, and for the most part only lately. Foles isn't worth the gamble, but inevitably, that won't matter.

The potential reward for handing Foles a big contract is obvious if everything plays out well. It's the trophy he hoisted to end the 2017 season. You know, the one with the shiny silver football on top.

But Foles' career history shows it'll take a big leap of faith to believe his short-term success will continue, and that the risk of him becoming another Keenum is high.

The openings

The suitors will line up soon, and the Jacksonville Jaguars will lead the way.

Their need under center is glaring after Blake Bortles floundered in 2018 before being replaced by Cody Kessler. The Jaguars still have the core pieces in place from their second-ranked defense in 2017, and surely think they're a serviceable quarterback away from getting back to championship contention.

However, after spending so much on that defense, the Jags also face a dollar-sign shaped hurdle. They rank last in available cap space, more than $2.4 million in the red.

On the other hand, the New York Giants and the Redskins, two other potential Foles destinations, have $27.4 million and $20.5 million in available cap space, respectively.

Eli Manning, the Giants' longtime leader, is a 38-year-old who's rapidly declining and entering the final year of his contract. The Redskins have an uncertain QB depth chart with Smith expected to miss 2019 after breaking his leg. It's easy to see why both teams might pursue Foles, and hand him big money in the process.

Whether it's one of those franchises or another team, Foles will likely find a new home in the coming weeks. Then, the cycle of overpaying, followed quickly by deep regret and the search for another option, will repeat itself with a different quarterback next offseason.

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