Fantasy: Which players are most impacted by Beckham trade?

Justin Boone

from on 2019-03-13 03:37 (#4AYQ7)

Recent fantasy analysis

After weeks of rumors and speculation, the New York Giants did the unthinkable and traded a 26-year-old superstar receiver to the Cleveland Browns.

Odell Beckham Jr. changing teams will create a ripple effect for almost every skill position player across both clubs, so let's look at how each player's outlook is altered.

Cleveland BrownsOdell Beckham Jr.

Beckham escapes the errant throws of 38-year-old Eli Manning in favor of surging sophomore Baker Mayfield. Not only does Mayfield have the personality to match Beckham, he'll immediately be the best quarterback OBJ has caught passes from since entering the league in 2014.

More than Manning's deficiencies, what has stopped Beckham from producing at times are injuries, which cost him 16 games over the last two seasons. Beckham still finished as a top-16 fantasy wideout in 2018 despite making just 12 appearances. Prior to his season-ending ailment, he was on pace for 103 receptions, 1,403 yards, and eight touchdowns.

In Cleveland, Beckham will enjoy upgrades across the offense ranging from the offensive line to the coaching staff, and he'll get to play with his college teammate and long-time friend Jarvis Landry. It's a dream scenario for Beckham and his fantasy owners.

Even if his target share dips slightly from the 28 percent he saw in New York, the guaranteed increase in efficiency and scoring opportunities, in what projects to be one of the more potent offenses in the league, is more than enough to make up for it.

With this trade alleviating any concerns about a declining Manning hurting Beckham's value, OBJ can safely be moved back into the conversation as the first receiver selected in this year's fantasy drafts.

Baker Mayfield

In recent articles, we've discussed teams acquiring better receivers to help their second-year quarterbacks develop, with examples including Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, and this year, Josh Allen. But none of those young passers were gifted a talent like Beckham.

Mayfield was a top-10 fantasy quarterback in the second half of his rookie season thanks to a coaching change that allowed Freddie Kitchens to assume control of the offense.

In the post-Super Bowl edition of my 2019 fantasy rankings, Mayfield was a fringe QB1. This blockbuster trade will lock him inside the top seven heading into next season. My only fear is that the hype around this deal and the ensuing media coverage catapults his ADP higher than I'm willing to draft him. But we'll get a more accurate idea of what his price will be in the coming months.

Jarvis Landry

Hopefully, the excitement over playing with Beckham for the first time since their LSU days is enough to ease Landry's pain over losing a significant amount of targets.

Landry saw 149 passes thrown his way during his first year in Cleveland - a 26 percent target share - but he still saw some of the lowest totals of his career, including a disappointing 54.4 percent catch rate.

Fantasy owners who look at Landry's year-long fantasy production will be deceived by his low-end WR2 numbers. In the second half of the year, when the Browns' offense was clicking, Landry was a borderline WR3 propped up only by a couple of big weeks.

With Beckham added to the mix, Landry's volume is sure to drop, making him more of a WR4 who lacks touchdown upside. His name value and the enthusiasm regarding the Browns' organization will see him drafted far earlier than he deserves to be in 2019.

Antonio Callaway

The potential for a Callaway breakout was short-lived as Beckham will completely overtake him in the offense.

Callaway will be relegated to a complementary field-stretcher role, giving him occasional upside as a long-shot DFS play and best-ball option, but leaving him off the re-draft radar.

David Njoku

Njoku was a steady performer last season, finishing inside the top 10 among fantasy tight ends with 56 catches, 639 yards, and four scores.

While he may have his target total reduced slightly by OBJ's arrival, Njoku will be able to overcome it by expanding his production in the red zone.

The 22-year-old is one of the best athletes at his position and remains a mid-range TE1 heading into his third season.

Nick Chubb

Beckham's presence will help keep defenses honest, drawing attention away from the line of scrimmage.

The Browns' offense is more potent now than it was before the trade, which will lead to more scoring chances for Chubb, who found the end zone 10 times as a rookie.

Outside of Beckham, Chubb is the piece of this offense I want to own the most and is one of my favorite RB1 targets in the first round.

New York GiantsSterling Shepard

The atmosphere in New York will be far less jovial as fans watch an All-Pro talent leave town. Even so, there are a couple of clear fantasy winners from Beckham's departure, and Shepard tops the list.

Shepard's 18 percent target share will vault into the 20s as he emerges as the Giants' new No. 1 receiver. Shepard doesn't have the same game-breaking ability Beckham brought to the field, but he's a skilled young wideout who hauled in eight touchdowns during his rookie campaign and is coming off a career-year with 66 receptions and 872 yards.

Though Shepard's numbers from the four games Beckham missed didn't exactly jump out of the box score, he ended the year with a six-catch, 113-yard performance against the Colts and a four-catch, 67-yard effort versus the Cowboys.

Now the 26-year-old will get the opportunity he's been waiting for and enough volume to propel him to WR3 status.

Evan Engram

Engram is another beneficiary of Beckham's relocation and might be the Giant who excelled the most when No. 13 was out of the lineup over the last two years.

With Beckham sidelined at the end of last season, Engram posted 75 yards or more in four straight games, a mark he failed to reach once in the seven times that he and Beckham shared the field earlier in the year.

And during his rookie campaign, Engram finished as the TE4 with Beckham only suiting up for a quarter of the year.

Any worries over Engram competing for targets are now put to rest. In my next rankings update, he'll move into the top six tight ends in all formats.

Saquon Barkley

Barkley's fantasy value seems untouchable after he eclipsed 2,000 yards from scrimmage and scored 15 touchdowns as a rookie.

Will his role as a pass-catcher increase with Beckham gone? Unlikely, considering he caught 91 of the 121 targets thrown to him in 2018.

Will he face more loaded boxes as defenses cheat forward, no longer fearing Beckham over the top? Probably, but the previous trade with the Browns landed the Giants Kevin Zeitler - one of the best guards in the league, and the team has made great strides to improve its offensive line over the last two years.

Bottom line, Barkley should be the first overall pick in your fantasy draft with or without Beckham on his team.

Corey Coleman

The Giants tendered Coleman, who was a restricted free agent, and he's currently the next man up on the depth chart.

Coleman is simply a name to monitor over the offseason as we wait to see how the team addresses its newfound hole at receiver.

Anyone who's followed his career knows Coleman doesn't have the ability to become a consistent playmaker in the NFL. If the Giants don't realize that already, they soon will.

Eli Manning

Manning's days as a fantasy option were over long before this trade happened.

Even in two-quarterback leagues, it would hard to trust Manning as anything more than a bye-week replacement.

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