Lightning are NHL's best bounce-back bet
We've been waiting patiently for the Tampa Bay Lightning to lose so we could cover how well they've performed following a loss. It took a while.
The NHL's top team at 58-14-4 went 16 full days and nine games between their two most recent losses. The Lightning are (finally) coming off a 4-3 defeat by the St. Louis Blues on Saturday, setting them up for an angle that deserves your attention when the Bolts meet the Boston Bruins on Monday.
Line: Tampa Bay -150
O/U: 6 (Over -116/Under +106)
Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
The Lightning have responded well after a loss - only twice this season have they endured back-to-back losses, and one of those involved a 1-0 overtime defeat by the Blues. Before we go into more specifics, here's how Tampa has fared in games after a loss in general:
| Opponent | Closing Line | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Jackets | TB -170 | W 8-2 |
| Blackhawks | TB -140 | W 6-3 |
| Devils | TB -166 | W 8-3 |
| Canadiens | TB -135 | W 4-1 |
| Sabres | TB -124 | L 2-1 |
| Penguins | TB +100 | W 4-3 |
| Panthers | TB -156 | W 7-3 |
| Sabres | TB -190 | W 5-4 |
| Canucks | TB -198 | W 5-2 |
| Blue Jackets | TB -185 | W 4-2 |
| Stars | TB -156 | W 2-0 |
| Sharks | TB -156 | W 6-3 |
| Islanders | TB -140 | W 1-0 |
| Blues | TB -180 | L 1-0 |
| Penguins | TB -179 | W 5-4 |
| Senators | TB -550 | W 5-1 |
| Red Wings | TB -450 | W 3-2 |
That's good for 15-2 straight up, while $100 bettors would be up $1,196 after accounting for prices. What's arguably even more fascinating, though, is the response of goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy after games in which he's credited with the loss. Since he was in the crease for the most recent loss against the Blues and is expected to be in net for Monday's game, that sets up what's been an unbelievable bounce-back angle. Here's how Vasilevskiy has fared after he takes a loss:
| Opponent | Closing Line | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Blue Jackets | TB -170 | W 8-2 |
| Avalanche | TB -125 | W 1-0 |
| Canadiens | TB -135 | W 4-1 |
| Maple Leafs | TB -141 | W 4-1 |
| Canucks | TB -198 | W 5-2 |
| Blue Jackets | TB -185 | W 4-0 |
| Stars | TB -156 | W 2-0 |
| Sharks | TB -156 | W 6-3 |
| Islanders | TB -145 | W 1-0 |
| Blues | TB -185 | L 1-0 |
| Penguins | TB -179 | W 5-4 |
| Maple Leafs | TB +104 | W 6-2 |
Going 11-1 with a 1.25 goals-against average is pretty decent, as is the fact Lightning opponents went 10-1-1 to the team total in that sample.
Mind you, this is not a lecture about predictive analytics, but merely an observed trend in how the Lightning and their star netminder have performed following a loss this season. But if history wants to repeat itself Monday, expect the Lightning to get back in the win column against the Bruins.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
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